South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[Southender]

Already resigned to missing out on any snow here in Southend. Rain perhaps sleet nailed on. If anything at all. The wait goes on...Hopefully the rest of you in the no snow club get your fix.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Southender

[danm]

7 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

A friend just sent me this pic from her garden in Derby

Crazy how some parts of the Midlands and North have seen several snowfalls so far this winter whereas most of us have barely seen anything. It’s purely down to bad luck. 

Fingers crossed for tomorrow. 

[Hotspur62]

So much uncertainty less than 24 hours!!nothing ever straightforward when snow is forecast for the SE!!Some I think will do quite well and get a good covering which will make for some lovely pictures.The met office app has me down for 4 hours heavy snow 11-3 tomorrow all at 80% chance but I have learnt to take that with a huge pinch of salt.At least all the region is in with a shout although those west of London have higher chances.I think maybe a case of expect the unexpected?

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, danm said:

Crazy how some parts of the Midlands and North have seen several snowfalls so far this winter whereas most of us have barely seen anything. It’s purely down to bad luck. 

Fingers crossed for tomorrow. 

Plenty will do well in SE - built so much uncertainty. Harmonie and Arome . Former slightly further N and E , latter has it stalling further south. Personally, i need it further north to get over the damn Chilterns

Edited January 23, 2021 by Chiltern_Blizzard

[pinball wizard]

31 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I often look at these warnings and wonder what Norwegians And Canadians would say if they saw a ‘severe weather warning’ for up to 3cm of snow

You have to remember weather warnings are essentially not so much about the weather itself but the impact of it. 3cm in Norway is not going to cause problems because it is expected and they have the resource and resilience to deal with it. It happens all the time. 

We seldom see snow, we aren't resilient and prepared and therefore a dusting can bring impacts that the public need to be aware of.

[danm]

 

Edit wrong thread ? 

Edited January 23, 2021 by danm

[danm]

6 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

Plenty will do well in SE - built so much uncertainty. Harmonie and Arome . Former slightly further N and E , latter has it stalling further south. Personally, i need it further north to get over the damn Chilterns

Let’s hope Harmonie is correct!

[Hammer]

40 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I often look at these warnings and wonder what Norwegians And Canadians would say if they saw a ‘severe weather warning’ for up to 3cm of snow

But those countries spend huge amounts of money on infrastructure because in several parts of their countries they know with almost certainty they will get snow and lots of it. Most people (in to weather at least) understand the circumstances that make it rare for snow in UK and hence likelihood of warnings for smaller values here than there.

[E17boy]

We could well possibly see some surprises later on today. Showers are expected to move down, of the come late enough more chance of snow as temperatures will drop

[Kentspur]

12 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

Plenty will do well in SE - built so much uncertainty. Harmonie and Arome . Former slightly further N and E , latter has it stalling further south. Personally, i need it further north to get over the damn Chilterns

Slightly further North East on Arome and further SE on Harmonie please

[simonhall6]

52 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Well The charts seem to think it’s headed for my neck of the woods in Cambridgeshire - we shall see! Could be some surprises from This today in my opinion ... esp for snow starved Cambridgeshire! 

Looking at the BBC weather forecast the snow today fizzles out as it heads south hope it’s wrong though !! 

[m1chaels]

We are forecast minus 5 overnight, I assume there must be some pretty co!d uppers. When was the last time the SE saw temperatures this low?

[Kentspur]

Surely places such as the Downs would get more than 1-3cms looking at the precip charts and the fact its slow moving, shows over 12 hours for some elevated areas on met app

 

[Paul Sherman]

Yep went Norway in March 2019 and they tend to measure in feet and if the snow goes above your property - Hahaha

They would laugh at this thread

 

[Uxbridge90]

At this point I wouldn't bother with the automated forecasts on BBC and Met Office, it will be a matter of watching the radar tomorrow morning and seeing if there's any shifts on the charts today. From a IMBY perspective it looks quite exciting but for the wider region it does look like those that haven't seen any snow may see some. 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Uxbridge90

[Southender]

Good tweet from Liam regarding tomorrow. Seems to be more and more of an West/SW of London affair. UKV saying the same.

 

[username home]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Good tweet from Liam regarding tomorrow. Seems to be more and more of an West/SW of London affair. UKV saying the same.

 

looking at those, if i was to have a bet on 'worst' (best!) affected places tomorrow, i'd put money on it being in a wedge from basingstoke up to oxford out to high wycombe 

[Darkcloud]

1 hour ago, Paul Sherman said:

ICON the first out of the traps for the 06z models and the precip does a perfect pirouette around London

West And South of London get a hammering on this run

South Essex 0cm

Kent 2-5cm

Surrey 5-10cm

Berks 5-12cm

C London 1-3cm

These totals just based on this run though

Anything for east sussex/Kent border?

[Southender]

2 minutes ago, username home said:

looking at those, if i was to have a bet on 'worst' (best!) affected places tomorrow, i'd put money on it being in a wedge from basingstoke up to oxford out to high wycombe 

Agreed which ties in with the more solid METO warnings for Snow.

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by Southender

[danm]

2 minutes ago, Southender said:

Agreed which ties in with the more solid METO warnings for Snow.

 

So does the snow skirt perfectly around the M25? Always take these warning zones with a pinch of salt. 

[Easily sled]

2 minutes ago, Southender said:

Agreed which ties in with the more solid METO warnings for Snow.

 

If it ends up anything like this.........!!!!!!

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest GFS good for the whole region late tomorrow’

Not really those SW winds over me, will cause rain for se Kent. But for the areas that keep a good wind direction yes.

[Kent Clipper]

Snow amounts across Kent will depend on how much of a continental low level feed we pull in as the system arrives. The GFS 6z pulls up some briefly less cold uppers after the initial snow event turning things back to rain for a while before the cold undercut from the west as part of the system pulls away.

Fortunately it looks as if most precipitation is in association with the leading edge (lasting 2 or 3 hours) before a brief less cold blip (with hopefully little or no precipitation in the afternoon. By evening we could well see further light falls from the wrap around before a very cold and icy night.

Its very exciting.

 

 

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, Southender said:

Good tweet from Liam regarding tomorrow. Seems to be more and more of an West/SW of London affair. UKV saying the same.

 

Those places will also have time on their side as well as the front comes through between 8-11am, whereas further north and east it comes through some time between 12-4pm.

Which is about as bad a time as you can get as daytime heating will have lifted the temps ahead of the front a little bit, even by a small amount will tip the balance towards less snow.

[Lord Grogon]

chionophobia = fear of snow.

Well I never. Learned something new today, courtesy of the BBC.

Assumed if you suffered from it you would reside somewhere around here.