South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion January 2021 onwards

[kold weather]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Exactly... will probably end up 1-2cm above 150m

I think alot depends on timing and things like that.

I'd be reasonably confident west and south of London, places like Surrey, Berkshire, etc that there is going to be a 2-3hr snow spell. Things are increasingly uncertain further east and north you go, or by the coast.

I suspect the Met office is cautious in its wording, especially as there is a little bit of uncertainty with just where the snow line ends up across.

As i said above looking at the Met office output it does appear to be one of the most marginal out there comparing its output on the detailed forecast website (which I believe uses 3hrs UKV, though I'm certain?) to most of the models. Its in the top 10% of the most marginal, though I'm sure they are also using a suite of other models that may well be showing similar and different to the rest of the public models.

 

[Lampostwatcher]

So I'm 4 miles away from the main warning of disruption due to snow but in the 1-3cm ( 100m) lingering all day warning

[Mark wheeler]

12 minutes ago, Brocken Spectre said:

New MET warning looks a slight downgrade with wording of over 100m, I'm sure the other warning didn't have that.

Issued: 10:31 (UTC) on Sat 23 Jan 2021

An area of rain, sleet and snow will move into southeast England from the west on Sunday morning, lingering here for much of the day before gradually clearing Sunday night. 1-3 cm of snow is possible in places, mainly above 100 m, with icy stretches forming as this arrives - some persisting during the day or reforming as the precipitation clears during the evening.

Previous wording:
"Mainly 1-3 cm of snow accumulation for most parts, but possibly 5-10 cm over 100 m with a small possibility of 10-15 cm over high ground for example on "

Yep looking at the latest runs there does seem to be a be some rain and sleet mixed in on the Harmonie for example so not surprising 

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, Lampostwatcher said:

So I'm 4 miles away from the main warning of disruption due to snow but in the 1-3cm ( 100m) lingering all day warning

Similar here - we could be in the pivot zone and hit the jackpot. 

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

Arpege - shows this could be the sweet spot as it drops south again - again, feel IMBY might be marginal - but higher areas of Chilterns and Cotswolds could  get a fair few cms.

[E17boy]

9 minutes ago, Floatylight said:

Wonder where this will end up today?

Well current reports are that is falling as snow at the moment Manchester and Sheffield

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

Yep looking at the latest runs there does seem to be a be some rain and sleet mixed in on the Harmonie for example so not surprising 

Yeah I can see why the Met Office went with the wording it did, and the forecast it has on the website seems to show something similar for Kent in particular.

The problem the further east you go ids the timings are not good there. It comes through at near peak daytime heating and in an already fairly marginal set-up that is enough to swing the balance from snow to rain. 

Thats probably why there is somewhat higher confidence in the weste of this region for snow because the timing is that bit earlier which should help the snow to fall.

Going to be a wait and see type job. Sometimes these set-ups can surprise you if the front comes in stronger than expected for example and evap cooling overwhelms the marginality

[Mark wheeler]

Parts of the southeast including Surrey are in a different warning zone .

This can and will probably change .

Edited January 23, 2021 by Mark wheeler

[E17boy]

17 minutes ago, Brocken Spectre said:

New MET warning looks a slight downgrade with wording of over 100m, I'm sure the other warning didn't have that.

Issued: 10:31 (UTC) on Sat 23 Jan 2021

An area of rain, sleet and snow will move into southeast England from the west on Sunday morning, lingering here for much of the day before gradually clearing Sunday night. 1-3 cm of snow is possible in places, mainly above 100 m, with icy stretches forming as this arrives - some persisting during the day or reforming as the precipitation clears during the evening.

Previous wording:
"Mainly 1-3 cm of snow accumulation for most parts, but possibly 5-10 cm over 100 m with a small possibility of 10-15 cm over high ground for example on "

This is my worst fear don't want any of us to end up with sleety muck like last weekend. I really do not hope this is a downgrade to sleet at low levels. For if it is then you kind of start thinking is it really worth the wait and excitement. Anyway let's be positive and hope for the best

[MAF]

4 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Well current reports are that is falling as snow at the moment Manchester and Sheffield

seems to be heading in a WNW direction, Nottingham and Lincoln in its line of travel. but then swinging more westerly too. 

[danm]

30 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

ICON the first out of the traps for the 06z models and the precip does a perfect pirouette around London

West And South of London get a hammering on this run

South Essex 0cm

Kent 2-5cm

Surrey 5-10cm

Berks 5-12cm

C London 1-3cm

These totals just based on this run though

Looks like SW Essex, bordering London could be ok but SE Essex possibly not?

[Biggin]

15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I often look at these warnings and wonder what Norwegians And Canadians would say if they saw a ‘severe weather warning’ for up to 3cm of snow

Yep

[username home]

12 minutes ago, Chiltern_Blizzard said:

Arpege - shows this could be the sweet spot as it drops south again - again, feel IMBY might be marginal - but higher areas of Chilterns and Cotswolds could  get a fair few cms.

are you sure that isn't just the M4 snow divider?! 

[Polaris]

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I often look at these warnings and wonder what Norwegians And Canadians would say if they saw a ‘severe weather warning’ for up to 3cm of snow

3cm is mere drizzle to them

[Tim Bland]

West is best for our region. That’s about all we know for now, if I could be anywhere it would be the Cotswolds.  Best bet for our region far west into cotsworlds eg Tring / Wendover.  radar watching in the morning...

[Mark wheeler]

Harmonie , you can see it’s a mix of sleet and snow  

[Biggin]

V8 has this as the situation at 1400 today with the showers moving se. 

 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, paget said:

Starting to get slightly excited! (I know, I really shouldn’t!) we haven’t seen a flake for 2 years now so Im just so hopeful! It always seems to just miss us here! Or it comes in from the east and fizzles out before it gets here! (Farnham, Surrey!) 

 

Think you’re in a good spot for tomorrow 

[Tim Bland]

Had the pleasure of a week in Norway in January a few years back ! 

[John Stevens]

15 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Well current reports are that is falling as snow at the moment Manchester and Sheffield

A friend just sent me this pic from her garden in Derby

[username home]

Just now, stainesbloke said:

Think you’re in a good spot for tomorrow 

i agree. i am on the berks/hants border and think that, for once, this could be a sweet spot. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

22 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I often look at these warnings and wonder what Norwegians And Canadians would say if they saw a ‘severe weather warning’ for up to 3cm of snow

It would be for 3 feet of snow!

Edited January 23, 2021 by prolongedSnowLover

[Neilsouth]

Not sure how I'll do, I'm under the 100m bracket but not far off! Usually get snow here when it's cold enough, while family home towards HB gets rain

 

80m Height, 250ft, 5miles from coast

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, username home said:

are you sure that isn't just the M4 snow divider?! 

Looks it - but looks quite narrow - doesn't spread much further north than Chilterns

[Chiltern_Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

West is best for our region. That’s about all we know for now, if I could be anywhere it would be the Cotswolds.  Best bet for our region far west into cotsworlds eg Tring / Wendover.  radar watching in the morning...

Yes - im a few miles from Tring - i would say Chilterns could do quite well spreading SW into Cotswolds

The Harmonie - goes further North and East  - where as Aperge and ICON are slighty further south and west