Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[That ECM]

7 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Funny enough, I never believed that the low north of the UK would remain stationary or slowly move east. It just didn’t look right, so good to see it dropping somewhat south now.

What are your thoughts for later in the month? No one will remember or hold you accountable. interested though, genuinely.

Edited January 7, 2021 by That ECM

[topo]

GFS parallel seems again much more realistic and in par with UKMO and ECM

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z T120 and //:

Difference is in the arctic high (colours not contours) // has this more developed even at T120.  

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No surprise to see the 18z less amplified than the 12z.  Like the 6z it’s currently a bit over progressive days 4 to 7. 

When you mentioned that this morning I did look up the verification for each gfs run.

d8 and d10:

  

They are pretty close in how they verify but looking at the daily plots it does appear that you are right that in certain situations they can vary significantly in the same daily cycle. It is like the AI is using different sub-sets of starting data on each run?

[chionomaniac]

Experience tells me that the GFS has the signal for some type of Atlantic amplification but hasn’t worked it out yet.

In the following chart combine the two Atlantic depressions together, and double the amplification northwards and that is probably closer to the real scenario...

[chionomaniac]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

What are your thoughts for later in the month? No one will remember or hold you accountable. interested though, genuinely.

Ultimately cold last third of the month. Significantly so.

[Swave Snow]

12 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Funny enough, I never believed that the low north of the UK would remain stationary or slowly move east. It just didn’t look right, so good to see it dropping somewhat south now.

interesting on the sat24 it shows the low dropping now how will the forecast for sunny weather in the North of Scotland happen tomorrow if that system drops down like it looks like it currently is doing 

[ICE COLD]

Vortex ripped to shreds can we take advantage? 

[WINTRY WALES]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Ultimately cold last third of the month. Significantly so.

I love you  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well hello there?!

[Mike Poole]

GFS // T150 just looks weird:

I think we might discount this run from here on in...

[Tim Bland]

Don’t forget the earlier stats that show the Para is outperforming the GFS at the moment ....

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Ultimately cold last third of the month. Significantly so.

Fantastic.

[Battleground Snow]

The area to watch is the ESB here, big changes from the 12z... Want to see the para repeat this later too

[blizzard81]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No surprise to see the 18z less amplified than the 12z.  Like the 6z it’s currently a bit over progressive days 4 to 7. 

What were you saying?

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS // T150 just looks weird:

I think we might discount this run from here on in...

Head scratcher compared to many previous runs, what's going on? 

[Kasim Awan]

Model shift is occurring...

[Battleground Snow]

 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Head scratcher compared to many previous runs, what's going on? 

Almost a split 

 

Edited January 7, 2021 by Tim Bland

[blizzard81]

Could this be the Jan 47 run in high resolution?

[Mike Poole]

So much interest at the moment, take the GFS 18z T192:

So we have:

• Arctic high (result of SSW I would think)
• This stops trop vortex even a chance of reforming, well actually it never formed this year!
• Nothing at all in terms of Atlantic drivers , jet stream, and hasn’t been for some time
• What on earth is to stop total reversal in the trop i.e. west to east goes to east to west, in the next 21 days?  It will happen i think, yes as a result off the SSW - and the downwelling of that might be imperfect, but we’ve no Atlantic driven weather now, and none forecast, so it should work out OK I think... 80% chance.  

Edited January 7, 2021 by Mike Poole

[joggs]

Going to be sone peachy runs from here on in over the next week and maybe beyond.

[ICE COLD]

Hope them heights to the south don’t ruin this 

[Tim Bland]

GFS looking good

[Ice Day]

Wow - that is superb