Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Tim Bland]

Anyone remember my comment yesterday about how the ECM might follow the GEM?  IF this happens we should remember that GEM spotted it first and the ECM followed ...

Latest GEM has a nice slider in a weeks time....

Edited January 8, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Tim Bland]

Finally some eye candy for the South..

[Cloud 10]

Comparing yesterday's and today's 00z UKMO runs shows the direction of travel quite nicely.

 

yesterday 144hrstoday 120hrs

[Chertseystreamer79]

1 hour ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Il put this in hear, the fax for this morning shows the low pressure well, with a nice wave feature on the low pressure l, I'm a bit confused as to why the ppn is forecast to now go through towards Wales and the South West rather than moving directly south across the county, I'm hoping someone can respond on this, 

For me personally it's a radar event, with the front straddled directly across England and Wales it tells me there's enough room for ppn to develop across large swathes of England and Wales

Think I saw a post yesterday that the shift west was due to change in wind direction from NE towards E as the low pulls away taking the precip with it. Typical! 

 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Met Office don't agree with this, you can see it with their predicted temperatures for next week, 8C for them for that same date for my location, west of Manchester. I think we have to accept some kind of warm up next week, its a case of  the degree of the mildness and how long it lasts. 

 

ECM ensembles this morning for Birmingham have a range of between 2.5C and 10C for Wednesday within the main spread.

Most ECM ensembles going for a snow event next Wednesday for NE England and Scotland, but the angle of approach still leaves me wondering if SW corrections remain possible.

Further out, really messy and therefore snow opportunities on many of the ensembles by next weekend, though completely without pattern as yet.

[chris55]

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Finally some eye candy for the South..

Thats a West Country /Cotswolds classic  

London and the south east getting in on the action as well! 

[Kakatak]

30 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Finally some eye candy for the South..

How many times have we seen low res week away charts like this over this last month??  Produced about 10 flakes in most parts of the SE...

[Mr Frost]

Morning all

Let the starter battle commence...

Main battle risk hopefully begins in the mid term. 

Few UKV snapshots:

Monday 15:00

 

Tuesday 15:00

 

Wednesday 03:00

 

Charts as always subject to change at this range but you can see the potential - slightest tweaks in real-time would of course bring more of the UK into the wintry risk. 
This is just for the first half of next week - more of the same in the extended outlook across many models/charts this morning from North to South.

Exciting for us all (snow lovers) - high risk/high reward but I am sure many of us would take that all day long...for the risk/chance of significant snowfall. 

All the best to you all.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Mr Frost

[I remember Atlantic 252]

32 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Finally some eye candy for the South..

25 years ago or so, these would bring rain South of the M4, snow up to Manchester, nowadays very rarely get past S Midlands, everything trends South, making it mainly S of M4 event

[Anthony Burden]

ECM 12 z looking very positive for cold starting approximately 168 hrs high pressure 

beginning to set up and fetch continental very cold air towards us .240 hrs 

showing low pressure diving south bringing strong easterly winds and lots of the 

white stuff.Lots of uncertainty still with Met office 30 day stating particularly low

confidence from the 12 th January.

[Scandinavian High.]

43 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Finally some eye candy for the South..

Interesting that I no it’s long way off maybe won’t happen but is it same sort of setup 2013 snow in the south with south easterly flow.

[Griff]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Anyone remember my comment yesterday about how the ECM might follow the GEM?  IF this happens we should remember that GEM spotted it first and the ECM followed ...

Latest GEM has a nice slider in a weeks time....

Definitely remember this, if I could pin it to this thread I would (hopefully not setting us up for a banana skin here). 

[Griff]

Seeing as the ipad has taken over my home schooling duties I have a bit of time to consider the ICON waiting for 06z gfs... 

Happy with this progress. Small increase in heights, hoping Atlantic can be kept at bay. 

[Drifter]

Would be good if the OG GFS gets in on the act. It’s been flatter than the para recently and downright awful in FI. 

[Guest]

Quite a spread of 2m temperatures for Cambridgeshire. Nothing special here. 

More chance of flooding than cold.

[Tim Bland]

Compare the uppers in the east at just day 5 -

00z Vs 06z

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Compare the uppers in the east at just day 5 -

00z Vs 06z

Very nice. As Dan Corbett used to say (remember him?), ‘the colder air is spreading down like molasses’ 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Compare the uppers in the east at just day 5 -

00z Vs 06z

I would say that's within the noise of the Atlantic low positions. Of which there are many to come barreling through for the foreseeable.

[Vikos]

This! (!!!) + !!!!!....

[jules216]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

This! (!!!) + !!!!!....

I challenge you with my location EPS control minus 20 uppers. Steady models apart from that pesky UKMO which goes too east early

[TSNWK]

Flatter again compared with 00z think it was @bluearmy who has noted a trend for a couple of days for 06z and 18z to be flatter than preceding run.
 

still cold and getting colder out east mind.

 

[Eskimo]

I tell you what, there's a lot of this 'wafting' from the south going on in the atmosphere - lots of WAA happening which is exactly what you want to see. 


 

[IDO]

5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

This! (!!!) + !!!!!....

Must be a lot going on for the ecm op to swing back and forth and have statistical outliers run after run, as early as d6-7 in some locations? We shall learn something from this episode, how good is the ecm op in the early days of a SSWE?

At d7 no sign of the ecm op run on the 06z from gfs, having none of that:

The gfs more in line with the ecm mean:

[Griff]

I know many hate the word potential but... 

[Scott Ingham]

This is an extremely fluid situation but this 20th-30th period is continuing to firm up now!

No trend big enough to call deep cold and snowy nirvana but we have a trend big enough to absolutely peak interest.

Also this shrinking of the "mild" period continues with us looking no where near what was expected just one week ago in the 15th-20th period!

Very positive interesting model output.