Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[sebastiaan1973]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

137 layers-wow, I am old enough to remember the frist Met O computer, belonging to Ferranti Manchester. It had THREE levels. Can't find the article on it from 50 years ago but I'll keep trying!

Lovely story. Thanks for sharing

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Minus 20 uppers showing up. Most likely wont verify but extremes like this are known to disappear then reappear at a closer range. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

Minus 20 uppers showing up. Most likely wont verify but extremes like this are known to disappear then reappear at a closer range. 

In America!

[Frost HoIIow]

2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Minus 20 uppers showing up. Most likely wont verify but extremes like this are known to disappear then reappear at a closer range. 

I think that's for Manchester, New Hampshire mate.

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Minus 20 uppers showing up. Most likely wont verify but extremes like this are known to disappear then reappear at a closer range. 

So, you're saying the spread goes colder than the past few weeks? 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

So, you're saying the spread goes colder than the past few weeks? 

I think that chart is for Manchester in the States! 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman in Yorks said:

I think that chart is for Manchester in the States! 

Wtf!  

That's genius! 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

7 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Minus 20 uppers showing up. Most likely wont verify but extremes like this are known to disappear then reappear at a closer range. 

Oooops wrong Manchester. Heres the Manchester UK ensemble, minus the minus 20 850s 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

Oooops wrong Manchester. Heres the Manchester UK ensemble, minus the minus 20 850s 

Easy mistake, hoping trend continues below average. 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, 38.7°C said:

Oooops wrong Manchester. Heres the Manchester UK ensemble, minus the minus 20 850s 

You brightened up my drab morning thank you not bad but I think the gfs needs to show more enthusiasm.

[johnholmes]

14 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Lovely story. Thanks for sharing

Yipee, found the Met O link, well worth reading, hopefully it can be put somewhere anyone can access it, perhaps in the learning area.

History of numerical weather prediction

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The history of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the Met Office, from the early 1950s to present.

 

[northwestsnow]

22 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Minus 20 uppers showing up. Most likely wont verify but extremes like this are known to disappear then reappear at a closer range. 

Owww the op really was one of the mildest longer term...

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Yipee, found the Met O link, well worth reading, hopefully it can be put somewhere anyone can access it, perhaps in the learning area.

History of numerical weather prediction

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The history of numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the Met Office, from the early 1950s to present.

 

That photo of the Ferranti Mercury computer, known as ‘Meteor’, takes me back a bit John as I was at Dunstable in the Napier Shaw buildiung for a short while in 1959

[Griff]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Owww the op really was one of the mildest longer term...

Even in USA

[northwestsnow]

Just now, knocker said:

That photo of the Ferranti Mercury computer, known as ‘Meteor’, takes me back a bit John as I was at Dunstable in the Napier Shaw buildiung for a short while in 1959

Hope you are keeping safe ..

[Penrith Snow]

Wow! Just catching up with the models following a long walk around the snowy landscape of East Cumbria, what joy to see trees weighed down with snow and the silence of a 4 inch snow cover, however, I digress.

ECM is a peach this morning, I love the way the cold wins out not through the hurried transit of low pressure but through the subtle movement of high pressure cells resulting in  cold air filtering slowly across the Country from the Arctic Tundra which by 144 is what Scandinavia will look like.

Reminds me of early February 1991 when mild weather at the of January was slowly replaced by bitter air from the East, I recall Ian McCaskil presenting the Countryfile forecast pointing to charts showing a slack mild south to south easterly air flow, he said 'in winter their is only one safe direction for the wind to come from and that's West, anything East of South could quickly put us into the freezer' he knew of course that the rather primitive models at the time were forecasting a drop of pressure in the Med and a rise in pressure over Scandinavia which would back the wind over the UK into the east.

That of course is exactly what happened.

Andy

[johnholmes]

I have been waiting to see if EC-GFS produced the charts for today but not so far so here with my latest 500 mb anomaly input.

Friday 8 Jan

Ec-gfs no charts at 0940 and still nothing at at 1220

Noaa and a similar pair of charts, both below to illustrate 6-10 and 8-14 over last few days. Differences are pretty minimal really on both charts. Both continue to show a meridional pattern. The ‘change’ from several days ago, for instance the first chart at the top for 29 December is the position of the eastern ridge-trough. Then the ridge was w of the uk and the trough over or just east of the UK. Now it shows 6-10 and 8-14 as the ridge (and less marked than the previous comment) over the uk and the deep cold trough over Europe, centre say about, using this link (http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif)

NE Norway to the Adriatic, its axis is thus ne-sw not nw-se as the trough was between Xmas and New Year.

So we remain in status quo, perhaps for something upwind to cause the wave lengths to change?

Friday 8 Jan

Ec-gfs no charts at 0940 and still nothing at at 1220

 

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ladies and gentlemen we now have the big stand off...the big event..to the West we have the rather lame and uninspiring Atlantic..To the East we have the Beast...with more power than strongman Eddie Hall...some ridiculous cold uppers being highlighted now..This could get tasty And I feel next weeks milder weather is becoming more of a blip before the main course.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Ladies and gentlemen we now have the big stand off...the big event..to the West we have the rather lame and uninspiring Atlantic..To the East we have the Beast...with more power than strongman Eddie Hall...some ridiculous cold uppers being highlighted now..This could get tasty And I feel next weeks milder weather is becoming more of a blip before the main course.

 

 

like Dec '10 then? mildr from 9th to 15th

[northwestsnow]

Well I think we are in a good place looking forward...

The initial warming looks to have triggered a split to me , perhaps an attempt from the vortex to regroup prior to another warming....

Have to say, a lot of my optimism is related to how I see the strat playing out, the trop response on EC for example is visible by day 7/8 ...

Hey I'm no expert but in my little world thats how things are rolling...

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by northwestsnow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

like Dec '10 then? mildr from 9th to 15th

Hi mate..I think its never wise to make comparisons with previous events and years...namely being each and every year can be unique.. This as a feel of 2017/18 Winter to me..A cold snap and snow during December 17 Followed by the main event in Feb 18...only difference being this as the advantage of coming much earlier...Good trends all the same,and perhaps the models now getting to grips with developments in the strat.

[carinthian]

Afternoon all.  Just have received a snow forecast up date and the latest model indication has put us over here in high class category alert for substantial snowfall in resort for Wed/ Thurs next week with 50cm or more fresh snowfall. You might also be interested that in the parameters, risk of snowfall has been flagged for the spine of the UK ( same time ) I would view that as the Pennines. Have not seen the models this morning but would assume possible transition or boundary snowfall at height. Will have a more in depth update tomorrow from our portal service with view to you guys going forward. Now I ask is the present UK cold spell on the wane or not.?

C

[Snowman.]

Great to see the pendulum swing a little bit more to the cold side this morning, as many suggested the development of wedges with the slowing of the westerly momentum that was looking likely a few days ago has begun to slow. 
 

Some fantastic FI output beginning to show with the ECM offering things a little closer to reliable too. However still too early to be confident and the idea of shortwave as and shallow lows across the Atlantic being responsible for adverting cold air or developing blocking always makes me feel uneasy. 
 

But things continue to look positive. 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Snowman.

[Vikos]

EC 00z Clusters... this is stunning for that timeframe, +240h, +348h

[Penicuikblizzard]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Just for fun ... 

It’s amazing how much those charts change,  yesterday they had 60cm of snow in southern Scotland