Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[IDO]

The d8 gefs are all over the place so as others have said, entropy sets in well before then. We will have to wait for the models to work it out. I would not be taking any instructions from the gefs/gfs for the moment, and tbh probably not the UKMO or ecm:

...or the gem, which is awful at d10:

[chris55]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Nice start from Ukmo.

This is the first post on my feed after refreshing (last viewed earlier today) WHAT a chart to refresh on.
 

That UKMO is loaded.

 

The trend is our friend, and it’s slowly moving in the right direction!

[nick sussex]

The models seem determined to find every possible way of keeping the deep cold to the east from breaking through the UKs defences!

The UKMO at day 6 is tantalizingly close to an excellent chart , with a bit more sharpness to that low to the west that could disrupt se supporting the high to the north .

At the moment the models seem to be at the roulette wheel on a continued winning streak of avoiding getting that deeper cold into the UK . How long can this luck last for? 

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

But isn't this in deep deep FI? 

Yep and I’ll keep shamelessly posting snow charts until 1 materialises ...might not be this year..or next,  but one day . Great thing is that different snow events are popping up on different models at different timescales, surely at least 1 has to verify

[Tim Bland]

8 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

those pesky heights over Iberia still interfere with the path to the promised land

Depends what your after I suppose You can keep your deep cold if I get 20cm of snow! 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Yep and I’ll keep shamelessly posting snow charts until 1 materialises ...might not be this year..or next,  but one day . Great thing is that different snow events are popping up on different models at different timescales, surely at least 1 has to verify

Matches my thoughts this evening. 

ECM followed by pub run, exciting times. 

[feb1991blizzard]

 GEFS GET IN - BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tim Bland]

A clear slide down after mid Month starting to appear. Remember at this time of you year you don’t have to be far below the average (red line) for snow opportunities...

[MP-R]

12 minutes ago, Speedbird said:

those pesky heights over Iberia still interfere with the path to the promised land

I fear as long as we hold on to Gibraltar, pressure will always be too high over Iberia...  

Steps in the right direction though with any lows becoming very squashed between northern and southern heights.

[Bogman]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 GEFS GET IN - BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Blooming eck, someone scored?

[Vikos]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

At least our resident Greek @Vikoswill be happy... 

Only part-time there, rest in Germany...

but snow and cold usually strikes Greece at the end of winter, like March... and if, it doesn’t last for more then a few days. 

[ICE COLD]

There are some very nice Ens . Haven’t got time to post them all but here’s one

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

As always.. Its 10 days away

Which is where they have been for the past couple of weeks. But if this SSW has an effect, we should start to see them creep forward.

To be fair, there are signs in early FI that things may be looking up. Need to get it to 120 before we can be genuinely interested though. 
 

 

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Djdazzle

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Don't tell IDO.

 

FWIW, JFF at T300, no BOOM from me on the gefs:

 

[icykev]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

The d8 gefs are all over the place so as others have said, entropy sets in well before then. We will have to wait for the models to work it out. I would not be taking any instructions from the gefs/gfs for the moment, and tbh probably not the UKMO or ecm:

...or the gem, which is awful at d10:

 

I think they are coming together in a cold/v cold set up and just copping on . . . .

P23 for me 

It always starts somewhere.

Heights popping up, joining forces, not possible to predict future mid term forecasts in these severely strange times (SST includes the weather ).

Important to focus on trends IMO and they looking great .

Looking @TI for forward momentum.  . . . 

[Battleground Snow]

27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 GEFS GET IN - BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Really want the EPS to show this at 240 later. They are not too interested at the moment

[Methuselah]

29 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yep and I’ll keep shamelessly posting snow charts until 1 materialises ...might not be this year..or next,  but one day . Great thing is that different snow events are popping up on different models at different timescales, surely at least 1 has to verify

Good for you, Tim! After all, FI is where all the 'action' is! Can everyone simply not savour the aroma?

[Kentspur]

42 minutes ago, IDO said:

The d8 gefs are all over the place so as others have said, entropy sets in well before then. We will have to wait for the models to work it out. I would not be taking any instructions from the gefs/gfs for the moment, and tbh probably not the UKMO or ecm:

...or the gem, which is awful at d10:

A lot of praise for the GEM lately but look at this- proves its snow accumulation charts are nothing more than cannon fodder if it can't even get the present correct 

[Faronstream]

Getting 80's winters vibes from the GFS 12Z run, unusual cold uppers over scandi while rest of western europe is quite mild. Average starting to look pretty good now

 

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

FWIW, JFF at T300, no BOOM from me on the gefs:

 

Can you post some examples of when you have got excited over cold weather...just so we know what to look out for

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

A lot of praise for the GEM lately but look at this- proves its snow accumulation charts are nothing more than cannon fodder if it can't even get the present correct 

Give it a chance...still got a hour there is some snow showers pushing east to west and reports of snow in kent though to be fair...

[Kentspur]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Give it a chance...still got a hour there is some snow showers pushing east to west and reports of snow in kent though to be fair...

Yes I've been radar watching looks good for East Kent/coastal Essex not sure it will reach here in the extreme NW of the county but we shall see was nice to see a surprise flurry at 6am today and temps are currently -0.3c even here by the Thames! 

[Zak M]

39 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 GEFS GET IN - BOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Are the wheels coming back on?

[chris55]

1 hour ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Greenland High or Scandi High?

GFS can't choose and goes for both.

Quite a mad chart that really!

Just look at the NH profile, the U.K. is firmly in the jaws of what could end up being pretty epic! 

[Cloud 10]

ECM 96 hrs.