Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Griff]

Well we've definitely left Europe 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Griff

[Howie]

We really need to lose the Iberian high...

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Howie said:

We really need to lose the Iberian high...

Yes - we have no chance while it stays there.

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes - we have no chance while it stays there.

Honestly don't know why it's suddenly popped up, very frustrating. I've just seen strat charts, one of the pv lobes is in the Atlantic

Edited January 8, 2021 by Howie

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

*cough* ....

suspiciously close to the M4 !!!!!

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Yes - we have no chance while it stays there.

 

3 minutes ago, Howie said:

We really need to lose the Iberian high...

Record snow fall today in Madrid

[Frosty.]

Just looking back at the Gfs 12z operational, there’s a sniff of some wintry potential during the second half of Jan..honestly, if there wasn’t....and with the ssw and all...I wouldn’t bother posting!

Edited January 8, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Griff]

Might as well just look at the gem... 

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Just looking back at the Gfs 12z operational, there’s a sniff of some wintry potential during the second half of Jan..honestly, if there wasn’t..I wouldn’t bother posting!

A “sniff of potential” - not even proper potential!

[ICE COLD]

UKMO is the best at day 6 by a mile . Can it pull it off ? 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO is the best at day 6 by a mile . Can it pull it off ? 

The day 6 UKMO chart is notoriously unreliable though.

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

A “sniff of potential” - not even proper potential!

Better than recent winters..cough..cough..lol..something is afoot I tell you, just waiting for that sudden wonderful transformation in the output..perhaps if I have another 5 / 7 day break from posting..things will be looking much better by this time next week..bye for now!!!!!.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Well I think @feb1991blizzard wins the award for best Boom today..its good to see you ramping mate...I've been waiting some time.

Lots of exciting ens again from GFS..im just gonna flag up a few...but there are many,so all good in that respect. UKMO was also impressive this evening...slowly surely we could be getting there.

Have a great Weekend folks,I'm off to watch the day after tomorrow for the thousandth time..im pretty sure this scenario will play out one day instead of just inside my head...Friday night fever folks...have a beer and chill..

Edited January 8, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Notty]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO is the best at day 6 by a mile . Can it pull it off ? 

You would think with being more ‘local’ and having access to all the data and it’s own models it should have the edge ...

[Battleground Snow]

Low cuts off at 168 

Should be a good run from here on.

 

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Might as well just look at the gem... 

Can we upgrade to a happy ending though

[PolarWarsaw]

9 minutes ago, Howie said:

We really need to lose the Iberian high...

Shouldn't come as any sort of surprise really. 

Whether it's the Azores, the vortex over Greenland or something as small as a shortwave, the UK is practically never free of one of them. 

This is the main problem with being the closest point to the Atlantic and the furthest away from the coldest source. 

Unfortunately, the UK is rubbish for snow and will always get the worst of any situation. 

[Daniel*]

I can see this turning out good Atlantic getting sealed off - Scandi high???

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Shouldn't come as any sort of surprise really. 

Whether it's the Azores, the vortex over Greenland or something as small as a shortwave, the UK is practically never free of one of them. 

This is the main problem with being the closest point to the Atlantic and the furthest away from the coldest source. 

Unfortunately, the UK is rubbish for snow and will always get the worst of any situation. 

True, but it’s become far worse in recent years, bar one or two occasions.

[Man With Beard]

ECM Tuesday night snow event from north midlands and further north - most settling in high ground - however more like GFS in that the mild air eventually wins and by Wednesday morning it's rain for all. 

UKMO on its own for what happens Wednesday/Thursday.

[Tim Bland]

£50 says ECM day 10 has potential

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I can see this turning out good Atlantic getting sealed off - Scandi high???

I think it wants too..  

[chris55]

@Howie @Djdazzle and @Vikos 

Are your one line responses adding to the thread, or are they just fishing? 
 

Adding some solid analysis and charts really help the thread move along more smoothly. If that snowfall in Madrid helps paint the picture for the U.K., elaborate!
if the Iberian heights need to move south, then show us.

If the UKMO 144 is ‘notoriously unreliable’ then add some evidence. 
 

Ive nothing against posting BBQ weather in January (sounds nice!) but be mindful of what your actually posting. 

 

[Methuselah]

Might be time to ditch the world-beating Sleet-O-Meter in favour of the tried-and-tested potentiometer?

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

ECM Tuesday night snow event from north midlands and further north - most settling in high ground - however more like GFS in that the mild air eventually wins and by Wednesday morning it's rain for all. 

UKMO on its own for what happens Wednesday/Thursday.

No snow at all on UKMO ..although the potential after t144 is huge