Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[NewEra21]

13 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Shouldn't come as any sort of surprise really. 

Whether it's the Azores, the vortex over Greenland or something as small as a shortwave, the UK is practically never free of one of them. 

This is the main problem with being the closest point to the Atlantic and the furthest away from the coldest source. 

Unfortunately, the UK is rubbish for snow and will always get the worst of any situation. 

Well tbf the UK has probably had the best of the cold weather throughout Europe since Christmas (bar the obvious cold locations).

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

@Howie @Djdazzle and @Vikos 

Are your one line responses adding to the thread, or are they just fishing? 
 

Adding some solid analysis and charts really help the thread move along more smoothly. If that snowfall in Madrid helps paint the picture for the U.K., elaborate!
if the Iberian heights need to move south, then show us.

If the UKMO 144 is ‘notoriously unreliable’ then add some evidence. 
 

Ive nothing against posting BBQ weather in January (sounds nice!) but be mindful of what your actually posting. 

 

We are not all as technical as some with the models. If every single comment required evidence, it would be like a university essay in here.

I have heard it said numerous times over the years about the UKMO 144 chart.

Being called out like this is a sure fire way to deter new posters from this thread, and smacks of elitism.

FWIW, I hope we get a severe cold spell. But the models aren’t there - yet.

 

[TSNWK]

Scandi high option seemed like to much hard work...maybe I’ll try a greenie

 

[IDO]

ecm def moved towards the gfs by d9:

No confidence either are right, but getting cross-model support is a start!

The UKMO is notorious for its d6 charts being over-simplified and we have had this conversation many times in the winter forums. It does on occasions get the slider/undercut right, much like a stopped clock is correct twice a day!

The Iberian heights will ebb and flow and if there is no run-off for them they will ebb more than flow, which will put the uk at risk from the SW'ly flow at times. Def showing on the ens as a problem post-d12.

[Battleground Snow]

Nice Ending.. Iberian heights would drop eventually.

The track of that tiny low at 144-168 is critical and won't be resolved for another day or so.

I know it's all at Day at 10 again, but the Canada system and the little Atlantic low are in place at day 7

Edited January 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[chris55]

The initial opportunity for that ‘wedge’ to force the Atlantic south doesn’t come to fruition at day 4/5 on the EC on this run, however moving on to day 9 and the pattern looks much more favourable for a colder pattern setting up with the Azores high finally ridging north. 

[Purga]

Poised and ready!

 

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

ecm def moved towards the gfs by d9:

No confidence either are right, but getting cross-model support is a start!

The UKMO is notorious for its d6 charts being over-simplified and we have had this conversation many times in the winter forums. It does on occasions get the slider/undercut right, much like a stopped clock is correct twice a day!

The Iberian heights will ebb and flow and if there is no run-off for them they will ebb more than flow, which will put the uk at risk from the SW'ly flow at times. Def showing on the ens as a problem post-d12.

I presume you've no issue with UKMO day 5 though?

Only one way that's going. 

[chris55]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

We are not all as technical as some with the models. If every single comment required evidence, it would be like a university essay in here.

I have heard it said numerous times over the years about the UKMO 144 chart.

Being called out like this is a sure fire way to deter new posters from this thread, and smacks of elitism.

FWIW, I hope we get a severe cold spell. But the models aren’t there - yet.

 

You haven’t got to be technical. Just let me know why the UKMO 144 is notoriously unreliable?

[Cold Winter Night]

ECM is more like GFS than UKMO or it's own 0Z run.

Subtle changes in the shape of the Southern Russia High and the Arctic High move the low on the Northern Russia coast closer to Scandinavia tonight, so the medium term is much different.

But indeed it ends with 'potential' at day 10. All is well that ends well?

[ICE COLD]

ECM ends well not surprising when you look at the clusters from this morning . Just feel if the UKMO was right at day 6 we’d get there so much quicker . Suppose we’ll see in the morning

[Djdazzle]

Just now, chris55 said:

You haven’t got to be technical. Just let me know why the UKMO 144 is notoriously unreliable?

Only what I’ve heard over the years on this very forum!

@IDOhas said the same thing too.

 

[Mr Frost]

Evening all

UKMO 120: 13:00

 

UKV same day:

Wednesday 09:00

 

12:00

 

15:00

 

With regards to this mornings run that cold air is much further West - dumping for higher ground somewhere! Lower ground...TBC! 

Interesting to follow over the next few days! 

Have a good weekend!

Cheers! 

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I presume you've no issue with UKMO day 5 though?

Only one way that's going. 

Indeed UKMO is better than both gfs and ECM at T120 . Is it really gonna be wrong at T120 . 

[Matt H]

Evening all, I’m late to the party today but there have been some encouraging trends for coldies recently. The JMA 12z looks great out to t192 as well.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Vikos]

23 minutes ago, chris55 said:

@Howie @Djdazzle and @Vikos 

Are your one line responses adding to the thread, or are they just fishing? 
 

Adding some solid analysis and charts really help the thread move along more smoothly. If that snowfall in Madrid helps paint the picture for the U.K., elaborate!
if the Iberian heights need to move south, then show us.

If the UKMO 144 is ‘notoriously unreliable’ then add some evidence. 
 

Ive nothing against posting BBQ weather in January (sounds nice!) but be mindful of what your actually posting. 

 

chill, mate. For me, it was just an info and a bit of sadness, that spain has more snowfall in one day than me had in the whole season so far.

I can understand that there is a bit of sadness growing in us all, but at the end, it's just the weather, which we can't change. There are other things right now which are more alarming then snowfall in Spain...

And I do provide some charts, also

Edited January 8, 2021 by Vikos
typos

[SMU]

Eve -

Not often I give favourite here but UKMO solution ( similar to its all conquering 2013 run ) its as high in my eyes as 75%

JMA 144 very similar & extends to 192 = 2013 nirvana ( who remembers March 2013 !!)

Edited January 8, 2021 by Steve Murr

[Anthony Burden]

Can only see a short milder interlude before colder conditions resume with a continental 

push.High pressure to our west joins up with Greenland to complete the blocking.

[chionomaniac]

Stopped looking at ECM tonight at 168. It’s one of those times, that no matter what is modelled before day 10, I knew that T+240 would show a Greenland block scenario.  And sure enough I just looked and the Atlantic amplification is there towards Greenland.

Back in 2010, we knew the destination, but not the route there.

I’m beginning to get that same nostalgic feeling again.......

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Stopped looking at ECM tonight at 168. It’s one of those times, that no matter what is modelled before day 10, I knew that T+240 would show a Greenland block scenario.  And sure enough I just looked and the Atlantic amplification is there towards Greenland.

Back in 2010, we knew the destination, but not the route there.

I’m beginning to get that same nostalgic feeling again.......

U mean this?

Well,

 

[sheikhy]

Let me mention something to my model peeps on here right now!!im glad i have taken a break from the model thread for a few days as nothing was really happening until now!!!!BUT IF THE UKMO IS RIGHT what we are about to witness is an upgrade of epic proportion between 96 and 144 hours largely thanks to the warming!!i have not seen short term upgrades for a very long time but this has all the hallmarks of january 2013!!!again i say IF the ukmo is correct!!

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I presume you've no issue with UKMO day 5 though?

Only one way that's going. 

Let us agree to disagree and come back to it tomorrow?

ecm at d10 similar to gfs op and I suspect it would be similar to the gfs d12 chart if we could see it:

GH has been the expected starting point for a while, just seeing the trough dropping to our east has a synchronicity.

[Jason H]

14 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Let me mention something to my model peeps on here right now!!im glad i have taken a break from the model thread for a few days as nothing was really happening until now!!!!BUT IF THE UKMO IS RIGHT what we are about to witness is an upgrade of epic proportion between 96 and 144 hours largely thanks to the warming!!i have not seen short term upgrades for a very long time but this has all the hallmarks of january 2013!!!again i say IF the ukmo is correct!!

I think you might be on the hype train too soon again my friend and it will only lead to disappointment. It's one operational run. The interesting part for cold weather fans lies 5+ days away. Definitely overall in the model world, it's trending in the right direction though. 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Jason H

[Griff]

A side by side of the 144s

Unless it's blindingly obvious I'm not experienced or educated enough to analyse upstream / downstream features that will grace or scupper our prospects for snow. Didn't need this much knowledge for my cpl met ground school exam (it was multiple choice with a question bank you could easily memorise ). 

I'm far more comfortable with general synoptics / charts and their relative comparison to each other via shapes, areas covered and intensity (if that makes sense), etc. 

That said, I can see fairly clearly why the UKMO comes out on top for the majority today. 

However, just passing the time, I have to say, and unlikely as I appreciate that it sounds, the JMA would be perfectly satisfactory for me at 192... Yes I'm being serious, and no, I'm not trolling! 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Griff

[mountain shadow]

19 minutes ago, IDO said:

Let us agree to disagree and come back to it tomorrow?

ecm at d10 similar to gfs op and I suspect it would be similar to the gfs d12 chart if we could see it:

GH has been the expected starting point for a while, just seeing the trough dropping to our east has a synchronicity.

Will do.

I think the Fax chart for this comes out about 10pm.

Will be interesting to see whether they go with this or not.