Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[sheikhy]

Aaannd the both the gfss move towards ukmo!!!!!stronger icelandic wedge makes all the difference!!

[Snowman.]

The trigger shortwave! Re-Amplification behind too!

[Griff]

GFSP bigger differences by 132

[Snowman.]

Just now, Griff said:

GFSP bigger differences by 132

Very UKMO just further east.

All these difference just 4-5 days away is the reason why many are saying that FI is simply for fun when an SSW is underway.

[Griff]

144 ukmo vs gfsp 

 

[Mike Poole]

Think the GFS is going off on one now.  The GFS // however at T138, holds a lot of promise:

The omega block for the starter, the arctic high for the main course...  

Edited January 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Griff]

Just now, Snowman. said:

Very UKMO just further east.

All these difference just 4-5 days away is the reason why many are saying that FI is simply for fun when an SSW is underway.

 

Just now, Griff said:

144 ukmo vs gfsp 

 

Yes, intriguing, a lot to learn ta

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Think the GFS is going off on one now.  The GFS // however at T138, holds a lot of promise:

 

Not sure it is, pretty consistent with its 12z output at 180, not too bad when people are calling 72 FI, of course it could be wrong but looks like its going to build a stonking big Greeny ridge to me.

[ALL ABOARD]

Well the warm up lasted long... 

I make it just over 48 hours?

 

[sheikhy]

Wow!!the gfs has gone so far towards the ukmo that you might as well call it the ukmo!!!big runs coming up in the morning!!like i said earlier if ukmo is correct we looking at upgrades on  different level!!probably the likes we aint seen since january 2013!!!that was a proper WTF moment at only 4 or 5 days out!!good memories

[Battleground Snow]

Despite the drastic changes near term, the pattern does seem to be somewhat the same upstream which is hopefully a win win situation for us.

Para good upstream too

Edited January 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Griff]

Will this develop heights and a sustainable block or likely to topple?  

[Mark wheeler]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Think the GFS is going off on one now.  The GFS // however at T138, holds a lot of promise:

The omega block for the starter, the arctic high for the main course...  

no need to be rude Mike

[Scott Ingham]

50 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^^ Yes a move to more undercutting... Saved me posting it...

The westward adjustment of the high is key

This is your time. Judgement of split energy. Have you seen a mean chart or run that you feel shows the most likely way forward?

I have my own idea i want to test it against

[Griff]

Cold is heading back this way... Maybe wishful thinking? 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Griff

[Griff]

I definitely would prefer the para at 180... 

Just curious how we get the cold on from here if it evolved remotely like this? Thanks 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Griff

[damianslaw]

On 07/01/2021 at 21:31, Man Without Beard said:

 

 

In these abnormal times, we are seeing a rather abnormal winter compared to recent times at least, definite shades of 2012-2013 feel about things at the moment. Atlantic has hit the waters, whilst the models are showing a return to a more westerly atlantic flow, it is hardly in gear. As soon as Tuesday we have heights to our north building and fighting the atlantic. 

ECM and GFS showing a complex set up as we move into middle of January, trough to our east and a developing very cold pool, atlantic trough splitting through UK with heights from Biscay surging NW to Greenland, energy off the Eastern USA seaboard has nowhere to go but north, effect a southerly tracking jet and strong heights developing to our NW, trough elongated on a southerly SW-NE trajectory with every chance becomes absorbed by the deep long wave trough to our east.

Its complicated, and all rather fascinating. A sure sign changes in the higher atmosphere is turning normal service on its head.

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

I’m a bit confused where the day 5 snow potential is on the UKMO ?

[Griff]

Apologies to all I'm even annoying myself with my constant commentary, but linking up to Arctic high would be good. Or is everything going to end up very west based? 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Griff

[Mike Poole]

I’m posting the GFS // T186 for a reason:

Looks like the first ridge didn’t deliver much.  But there’s another.  And that is the thing.  People are so busy commenting on what they see in the charts, that they may miss the obvious - which is what is not shown in any of the charts, which is any kind of forcing from the Atlantic at all.  And in the absence of that, at the heart of the winter, we will  get there.  

 

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Battleground Snow]

Different but good? @Griff like you I think I'm posting too much... I'll give it a rest for a while

 

[Purga]

That Siberian blast has got NW fans written all over it!!

[ICE COLD]

That is one mangled pv on the para 

[Man With Beard]

28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS P snow depths Weds AM

From a fairly ordinary chart 

Similar to GEM

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Apologies to all I'm even annoying myself with my constant commentary, but linking up to Arctic high would be good. Or is everything going to end up very west based? 

 

I would prefer the op as there is certainly less risk of a west based -nao.