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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Looks good but I don't think any of these snow charts have verified recently. The met office are certainly not having any of it. Rain and noticeable milder next week is their opinion. Until they change their tune I don't think it's worth getting carried away with what the models might be showing.

That is quite wrong. Carinthian mentioned an event yesterday  that their portal was closely watching for the spine of the country and the met refer to it on my regional forecast. Knowing the vagories of Forecasting snow, it will not be updated until at least Monday. 

Edited by winterof79
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its behind a pay wall?

No you just need to register its free. 

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

No you just need to register its free. 

He does love cold but it's balanced interpretation of the model output too. 

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snowblind Community Regular

snowblind

Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
Posted
6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

That is quite wrong. Carinthian mentioned an event yesterday  that their portal was closely watching for the spine of the country and the met refer to it on my regional forecast. Knowing the vagories of Forecasting snow, it will not be updated until at least Monday. 

Maybe I should have specified this is from the east of England forecast. Maybe prospects for next week are better further north particularly with altitude.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted

The Russian bear is coming! 241495C9-0FC4-4A7A-8175-1FA83A1FF02B.thu

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georgiedre Enthusiast

georgiedre

Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
Posted

I've seen many circumstances when the weather systems can't pass a certain point and then these almost always push further south.. could this happen this week?? 

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
13 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Looks good but I don't think any of these snow charts have verified recently. The met office are certainly not having any of it. Rain and noticeably milder next week is their opinion. Until they change their tune I don't think it's worth getting carried away with what the models might be showing.

Noticeably mild? Where? Still single digits for most next week, and this “less cold” period keeps getting watered down..

Sometimes MetO are late to change there minds and they always play cautiously. Obviously.

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Anthony Burden Seasoned

Anthony Burden

Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
Posted

Starting in my opinion to show the effects of SSW,although charts are having a hard time

working out the different scenarios the east to west flow is with out doubt the form horse.

very cold air is coming probably within 7 to 8 days.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

Has @Tim Bland commented on gem vs ecm similarities yet? (Not mocking, great spot BTW) 

Morning all. 

What about the problematic Iberian heights, or was that a yesterday worry? 

gemnh-0-240.png

ECH1-240.gif

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted
13 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Maybe I should have specified this is from the east of England forecast. Maybe prospects for next week are better further north particularly with altitude.

Thinking the forecast is fluid at present. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Starting in my opinion to show the effects of SSW,although charts are having a hard time

working out the different scenarios the east to west flow is with out doubt the form horse.

very cold air is coming probably within 7 to 8 days.

I think that anything will appear in the 144.168 rather than in FI, so that’s where I’ll be looking.

I still wouldn’t bet any money on it though.

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gona call this now and say ecm has lost the plot for the midweek snowfall!!expect a flatter pattern on the 12z for tuesday wednesday!!!hope im wrong though

The 06z says you are .....holds the front back a little but looks like it’s just a delay rather than a big step towards  ecm evolution. Small steps may make a big step by tomorrow?

Edited by bluearmy
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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
19 minutes ago, Griff said:

Has @Tim Bland commented on gem vs ecm similarities yet? (Not mocking, great spot BTW) 

Morning all. 

What about the problematic Iberian heights, or was that a yesterday worry? 

gemnh-0-240.png

ECH1-240.gif

Good spot mate, hadn’t got as far as the GEM yet. It shows even more snow than ECM. My gut feeling is we get a watered down version and just a bit of leading edge hill snow. Anything is possible though. FI is day 4 at the moment ! 

339761AB-8D53-4960-AF71-406D7A1021A8.png

D39F518B-5F28-4977-AA6E-5AB3F1A3AA1B.png

F2F2DFF6-AF24-4B23-A56A-063719816BF0.jpeg

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 06z says you are .....holds the front back a little 

Looks like it’s all rain when it passes though though ...

F1FE406C-7AC9-4258-9651-2AC0E835C3A6.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

One of these gfs runs might just show heights rising in scandi eventually, if your glass if half full... 

gfsnh-0-114.png

Edited by Griff
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 06z says you are .....holds the front back a little but looks like it’s just a delay rather than a big step towards  ecm evolution. Small steps may make a big step by tomorrow?

Agreed, somewhere like Luton gets upto 6ish on Tuesday/wed and back to 4 come Friday. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Just need to let you all no some great stuff on Matt Hugo Twitter really worth looking at

should give more enlightenment on the different scenarios

Can you put anything worthwhile in the tweet thread - some of us are blocked by Matt 

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AFCBSNOW Contributor

AFCBSNOW

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
4 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

Just need to let you all no some great stuff on Matt Hugo Twitter really worth looking at

should give more enlightenment on the different scenarios

Would you mind posting some snippets, as I am still in the 00's and dont use twitter......

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 06z says you are .....holds the front back a little but looks like it’s just a delay rather than a big step towards  ecm evolution. Small steps may make a big step by tomorrow?

Yup if it keeps holding it back till tomorrow 06z then it might look like the ecm!!that slow vintage crawl baack round from the gfs!!?

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

image.thumb.png.4e0cb1e13b024ca875ae3c648a1cff64.png

There you go , from Matt H

Edited by MJB
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