Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Oh my good lord. What a stonker of a run! 1987 revisited if ever I’ve seen it. 

Pure North Sea snow machine magic would ensue. People will be getting buried if this one comes off. 

[ALL ABOARD]

This is how you get a prolonged bitter spell. 

Low begins to cross the Atlantic, heights remain of Greenland and you get a new build of high pressure behind the low reinforcing the heights. 

All academic. 

But on this run... 

Very cold.. Blizzard.. Repeat. 

[Met4Cast]

It's quite rare in the UK to see both a bitterly cold & unsettled pattern at the same time as per GFS 18z, but that would literally bury some areas of the UK in snow, no marginal air there whatsoever and a heck of a lot of moisture. 

Incredible run. Likely to be completely different tomorrow but we're starting to see momentum building for cold Jan 18th and beyond.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, bluearmy said:

-20c over scandi .....that’s seems unusual to me ........is it ????

 

let’s create a shortwave to prevent the UK getting that surge  

 

BFTP

[chionomaniac]

Has there ever been a run in history that has followed the later GFS footsteps. Probably not.  It’s the early changes that are important

[Djdazzle]

I love a pub run special. Why do we never see runs like this on the 00z suites?

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I love a pub run special. Why do we never see runs like this on the 00z suites?

We’re not drunk then? Beer goggles etc...

Edited January 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

Another huge warming showing on the gfs . This winter seems nuts . 

[XtremeUKWeather]

UK has vanished

[Backtrack]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I love a pub run special. Why do we never see runs like this on the 00z suites?

Less variables & data goes into the 18Z vs others I believe, hence it's verification % is lower. Someone may correct me.

[Tim Bland]

Sorry to be a party pooper...GFSp is a bit rubbish tonight...unless you’re a duck! Can’t win them all though ...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I mentioned in my last main post in here about BFTE equivalent depth of cold when u see the 510 dam line that’s a sure sign and indeed I had a quick look back the 2018 beast had that, the mid December 2010 when the section of PV came over the UK briefly had it and I would imagine the big cold spells ie 62/47 would have had it. I also said I usually try to look at the charts for possibility > trend > outcome and though I’m still in the first category we could be edging towards this pattern becoming a trend in the coming week

[chionomaniac]

Lol. Perhaps I better not post for a few days. But I haven’t seen such a strong signal for proper cold in a long while. We have strat, a small amount of tropical feedback reinforcing an excellent underlying early winter pattern. The solar cycle of early ascending phase seems to reinforce these blocking patterns too. Why? I’m unsure of.

 But all in all, let’s stay calm and see how this unfolds, because we have already experienced fantastic synoptic output this winter for very little surface gain. Unless you have altitude and distance away from coastal modification on your side. But that may change in the last third of January.  

[Bradley in Kent]

Wow that is some set of ensembles, shows the models are a bit out of their depth here! So basically in two weeks time we could experiencing anything from 14C and humid to maxes of -5C...

One or the other would be nice, but to be honest it'll be nothing like either scenario!

[Battleground Snow]

Couldn't resist one more before bed.

Control at 240

See you for the overnight icon ?@Kentspur @Mucka

[ALL ABOARD]

The mean is getting better with each suite. 

240h

[ICE COLD]

We’re all talking about what happens around day 8 and beyond lol but we may have a WTF moment in the morning when the UKMO shows an undercut of that wedge and the other models follow and we get an easterly . 

Edited January 8, 2021 by ICE COLD

[kumquat]

Shortwave approaching West Ireland seems overblown on this run at 120, 

leading to a crossroads low at 144

Ensemble madness ensues from this point.

[Tim Bland]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

We’re all talking about what happens around day 8 and beyond lol but we may have a WTF moment in the morning when the UKMO shows a undercut of that wedge and the other models follow and we get an easterly . 

I wouldn’t rule anything out ...models all over the place , but most lead to a snowy spell at some point

Edited January 8, 2021 by Tim Bland

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t rule anything out ...models all over the place , but most lead to a snowy spell at some point

Yep that’s how I’m thinking bout it , it’ll be brilliant to get that WTF Moment at day 5 and 6 but even if we don’t there’s plenty more to look forward to

[Penrith Snow]

Wow! Just catching up with the models following a long walk around the snowy landscape of East Cumbria, what joy to see trees weighed down with snow and the silence of a 4 inch snow cover, however, I digress.

ECM is a peach this evening, I love the way the cold wins out not through the hurried transit of low pressure but through the subtle movement of high pressure cells resulting in  cold air filtering slowly across the Country from the Arctic Tundra which by 144 is what Scandinavia will look like.

Reminds me of early February 1991 when mild weather at the of January was slowly replaced by bitter air from the East, I recall Ian McCaskil presenting the Countryfile forecast pointing to charts showing a slack mild south to south easterly air flow, he said 'in winter their is only one safe direction for the wind to come from and that's West, anything East of South could quickly put us into the freezer' he knew of course that the rather primitive models at the time were forecasting a drop of pressure in the Med and a rise in pressure over Scandinavia which would back the wind over the UK into the east.

That of course is exactly what happened.

Andy

[Man With Beard]

56 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Waiting for someone to say that these uppers will only deliver sleet to lower levels.

I saw rain at minus 0.7C last week but even so, pretty sure this would be white for all!

Very encouraging signs for coldies overall - even next week's breakdown is itself breaking down. Remove the Iberian heights and it'll be a shoein.

[northwestsnow]

Certainly one of the most fascinating Winters in recent years...

I'm feeling confident ,the models are upgrading ,but I'm also wary the timeframes involved are beyond the reliable.

Thanks to everyone for making the threads so enjoyable during these horrible times.

I've suffered heartbreak myself over recent months , and this place has been somewhere to share knowledge and the occasional laugh ( and moan in my case no doubt).,a haven in some respects.

I hope mother nature gives us a decent cold blast sometime soon !

 

[Trom]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Remember my date of the 20th from the other day? Still think that'll be the landing point.

I do hope you are right.  14 days is on the quick side.  There's still a lot of short and mid term volatility.  Might take longer and a second attack on the strat vortex (if we are to get deep cold).  There seems to be traction on lower heights to the South of the UK and ridging of heights into Greenland.  The ensembles tell a mix message on all models which is unsurprising given the flux and the lower resolution and adjusted input data.  Happy to see the operationals move in the right direction but I wont feel confident until the ensembles can back it up and we get more inter-run consistency in the relative short term.  Keep them fingers crossed!

[Snowman.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Certainly one of the most fascinating Winters in recent years...

I'm feeling confident ,the models are upgrading ,but I'm also wary the timeframes involved are beyond the reliable.

Thanks to everyone for making the threads so enjoyable during these horrible times.

I've suffered heartbreak myself over recent months , and this place has been somewhere to share knowledge and the occasional laugh ( and moan in my case no doubt).,a haven in some respects.

I hope mother nature gives us a decent cold blast sometime soon !

 

It has been a truly bleak year, I am sorry for any loss.

I echo your thoughts this has been one of the most exciting winters in the past decade with all models and long range forecasts calling for a mild winter yet we end up with a double dip SSW and possible split. 

Long may it continue and hope we finally get a good cold spell and lets all make a snowman with those in our house or bubble.