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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted (edited)

Excellent GFS

image.thumb.png.8014e9e2ee18a05711c824bb08a924a9.png

Run the progression through 240-258 and those N Atlantic heights just remain in situ whilst the weather moves around them- suggests to me it's stratospheric led. I.e not a standard toppler

Edited by CreweCold
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, ICE COLD said:

@Griff @Battleground Snowyour not posting too much . I like your posts . Keep cracking on

Thanks, I appreciate that and your collective patience. 

To be honest I'm more confused now than a couple of days ago... 

 

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

Lovely GFS, huge upgrade in uppers and the macro pattern albeit in FI

Latest 18z vs 12z

Screenshot_20210108-224134_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20210108-224139_Samsung Internet.jpg

gfs-0-258.png

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
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Posted

Better get some cover for the pipes... 

 

322267533_gfsnh-0-270(1).thumb.png.dad59309a7325f143d49a6604b1cb735.png

 

 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Different but good? @Griff like you I think I'm posting too much... I'll give it a rest for a while

 

gfsnh-0-246 (2).png

Follow the lines - cross polar freezer flow into the UK.

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
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Posted (edited)

Always enjoy a pub run classic.

A04D7216-19A8-49FE-8CDE-842AA7CAC1B1.thumb.png.f6c221112abe29e36f26303a4b4d884f.pngD6A7104D-DD95-4CA6-AEC7-BDE5E6C52912.thumb.png.b54cd61b888880b0abf20c14c433ccda.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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Bartlett High Aficionado

Bartlett High

Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
Posted
4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Better get some cover for the pipes... 

 

322267533_gfsnh-0-270(1).thumb.png.dad59309a7325f143d49a6604b1cb735.png

 

 

That looks magnificent

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Day10 Apprentice

Day10

Posted
  • Location: East Hanney
  • Weather Preferences: 24 degrees clear skies in summer, -24 degrees clear skies in winter
  • Location: East Hanney
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Thanks, I appreciate that and your collective patience. 

To be honest I'm more confused now than a couple of days ago... 

 

Griff,

I've been confused for the last 13 years on this forum....

Appreciate the input btw..

 

 

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

Interested here to see if my destination theory is right with the 18z gfs and/or parallel. Let’s see if the route ends up at a similar destination.  If it doesn’t then I may look the fool short term, but not necessarily in the long run.

 

1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

Lol this run could be heading towards a Friday evening pub run special brew.  Let’s keep watching.

So firstly, low behold, we have that stronger Greenland block on show. All routes lead to....

EEE77D49-E0D9-452E-9E74-F5F06723A426.thumb.jpeg.bc186db067d4fd0b275078f40aff070f.jpeg 

But why am I so confident so early on that this will be the case? Well it is the difference between thes two charts, one from the 12ZGFS run and the next from the 18ZGFS run. If we we know the destination, then we can pick the better route early on.

 

796A2884-0B9C-48B7-9421-55134F045540.thumb.jpeg.7c8748c1993838381aac0f8f03481a71.jpeg

 

The above chart is the 18z the below chart the 12z. Not much difference at the same timeframe. But the big difference here at an early timeframe is seen towards the southwest of Greenland. The way the low pressure splits from the main lobe and the difference in heights involved is all important here. Once we see that, we know that reinforcement of any Greenland block is likely to be stronger and quicker in the median term.

CF3D3818-2CBD-45F8-9036-C8B6E70D4A9A.thumb.jpeg.71e1eb903900b72741f8dd8f9ff757af.jpeg

 

So so at this point, despite what happens in FI, we know that we are likely to see an Atlantic blockout and possibly some great northern Atlantic blocking

 

Edited by chionomaniac
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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
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Posted

Waiting for someone to say that these uppers will only deliver sleet to lower levels.

CD4B02B4-CC35-414B-82C7-F2394DC3D065.png

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted
6 minutes ago, Griff said:

One last one before bed, is this even possible? 

gfsnh-0-228.png

Some small Similarities to 2010...

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted

Jaw dropping stuff from GFS...

no marginal nonsense as that arctic air sweeps south...

Mid Jan onwards... prime time ...

We can but go to bed dreaming...

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS // T240, looks like a two way traffic system, up west of Greenland and down from the cold air to UK, maybe, what’s does it take to get cold air to the UK these days, it might just be this:

408F6D93-8CC1-4360-B82A-89BB70E9DFB6.thumb.jpeg.521a14c807de622f40facdab3671b55c.jpeg

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Pub run special!

image.thumb.png.1446a6791ad86d54e0e3ca1e591af51e.pngimage.thumb.png.5bb4fe372c8a923ee34e79079db0050f.png

 

 

Edited by Purga
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