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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?


Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

A new thread, as the cold spell which has been with us since Boxing day draws to a close this weekend. An SSW has occurred this week though, and that may influence things as we move through January, but, the models aren't generally showing any significant cold in the short or medium term at the moment. 

Please only discuss the model output in this thread, and as ever please also keep it friendly and respectful of others views.

Some alternate threads if you don't want to discuss the models:

Winter chat, banter, moans and ramps
Stratosphere and Polar Vortex watch
Regional Chat

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Latest NOAA/NCEP

temperaturencepforecastst2meuropa0601bis

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hi ^^ There is no such upgrades expected in the 120-144 - The position of the advancing low V 2013 is a long way further south with an angle of SE > NE where as the 2013 low had a position to the North with a movement of NE > SE

The best we do here is -7c straddling the east - 

I cant see a GEM type solution its to progressive.

Pity, that would be pretty much guaranteed few inches of snow for you.

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
10 minutes ago, snowking said:

Just as a quick note here - IF, and it’s a huge if, we are going to see continuing upgrades in the short-medium term, then the ensemble suites and means are going to be next to useless beyond T+144 due to their lower resolution - if we are indeed headed to shorter term upgrades then the higher resolution Operational and Control runs will lead the way and drag the ensembles behind them.

Im not yet convinced that these shorter term (day 5/6) upgrades will amount to anything, but it wouldn’t be the first time.

I have a vague memory of this happening in either 2012 or 2013 with an Icelandic wedge becoming more and more influential in modelling the nearer we got to T+0 (I think it might have been February 2012 where we saw a week or so cold snap with some frontal snowfall, but it might have been one of the 2013 cold spells instead) and @Steve Murr called it very early on. Whichever event that was produced the snow you can see in my profile picture.
 

Of course since then many such potential upgrades have come and gone without producing much, but something feels a bit different this year.

It was Jan 2013, Steve called it spot on if my memory serves.  It was after a SSW, which initially looked to be disappointing, but delivered via a wedge of highish pressure in just the right place.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
  • Location: HARROW WEALD NORTH WEST LONDON
8 minutes ago, username home said:

Tuesday looking like being the most exciting day of 2021 so far for those in the SE...

Why's that ?

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff

That mild hump is getting obliterated with each run.  Also more and more digging down into cold uppers.  Expect more to join the party over the next 5 days.  The non existent vortex is getting a second and more ferocious assault soon so goodnight Atlantic.

 

I am a complete novice.

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)

A good explanation into how SSW's don't always bring cold weather. Although it ends on a very optimistic note.

Edited by Bartlett High
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It was Jan 2013, Steve called it spot on if my memory serves.  It was after a SSW, which initially looked to be disappointing, but delivered via a wedge of highish pressure in just the right place.  

Jan 2013 delivered my last appreciable snowfall, about 8 inches, admittedly it came from an atlantic frontal system at the end of the cold spell, and soon thawed. Most of our heavy snowfalls usually come from such systems.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Just a quick look at some of those 12z ens which highlight some quite brutal cold developing to the E/NE..Its there if we get to tap in to it again.

Something positive from Marco p. Secondary warming event coming up in the next week...The Vortex still alive for now.But EC is hinting that it could be the end of February before it recovers..now for me,that puts us in the game for some time..

 

 

 

 

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ErKFpEkXIAIZZ-a.jpeg

Also @Blessed Weatherhas posted a tweet from Amy butler in the strat thread . Interesting that the split vortex   Runs have increased from 8 to 17 out of 75  and they are very difficult to model more than a week out . 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon 120 v 126. We might squeeze something out in the medium term, but it's the, 192+ plus range which could be the main course.

 

iconnh-0-120 (13).png

iconnh-0-126 (5).png

Quite a big improvement on the 12z (which was rubbish, by the way) let’s see if there is an upgrade on the pub run too.  

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Still no one has answered my question  

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
24 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

A good explanation into how SSW's don't always bring cold weather. Although it ends on a very optimistic note.

Great video, certainly looks promising!

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