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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Mean on EC is nice!

image.thumb.png.ab7aa8e42bf5df2fe73952a7b26662ce.png

Day 11 GEFS have lots of great charts, things are looking good. There are others, but here’s a few.

A47E99C8-F2BD-463D-864B-7FE1BF6C1219.png

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01BCE7DC-9CBE-4703-BF2A-999EDF8739D8.png

241495C9-0FC4-4A7A-8175-1FA83A1FF02B.png

CC33E04C-35BC-49B8-96DD-B51B8E140018.png

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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted
2 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Its all good in the hood GEMs got this

 

Edit north of the M4

gem-0-240.png

gem-16-174.png

Not even amusing we've been starved her ein the south East corner... Bring it on

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

Good morning!

EC keeps delivering, those are epic eps for my region I can’t remember to have seen such cold ones in years...

Nice is that GFSp joins EC, GFS op is bullcrap and starts full zyclogenesis with all the cold over NA. Not to be trusted anymore. Can go with DJT...

51DDA49B-1E26-4ECE-B624-81EB4FC81E4A.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

ECM has been trending colder 

Look at the Manchester 2m ECM temps from the 6th Jan 0z run

wiN9IQY.png

Latest 0z run

r1y8sa0.png

And to confirm this is Manchester UK? THere was little confusion yesterday. 

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Jeremy Shockey Rising Star

Jeremy Shockey

Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
Posted

spacer.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

ECM ensembles trending colder after a very brief mild blip. A good mean this morning

Op even interested in something very cold around 15th

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AFCBSNOW Contributor

AFCBSNOW

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Yes....... I am not sure why there would be a confusion?  

Someone posted Data for Manchester USA yesterday, its tounge in cheek lol

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
34 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

ECM has been trending colder 

Look at the Manchester 2m ECM temps from the 6th Jan 0z run

wiN9IQY.png

Latest 0z run

r1y8sa0.png

You cant see how cold because you haven't got the y axis of the graph showing.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECM 00Z individual ensembles have definitely trended to more wintry weather for the middle of next week, and extended the risk a little further south and west - however, after seeing the quite shocking level of difference between the models at D4, best not to get too sucked into what the possibilities are just yet.

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You cant see how cold because you haven't got the y axis of the graph showing.

I posted to show the trend more than anything else, the red lines are climatic averages, ECM has gone from favouring above average, 3 days ago  to now below average

image.thumb.png.bd21b11e854bb92adba6eacc9ad9c2d8.png

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted

Blizzard or Bartlett, take your pick, only a fool would put a bet on the weather next week never mind the week after.

The main worry is height rises over Iberia which is the winter killer, I was in Spain last January and the weather was glorious under a semi permanent anticyclone but this year is very different with record snow and low temperatures, an indication of low pressure that has prevailed since New Year.

However, what is clear is that there is everything to play for and so very different to last year.

Is the improvement in the models from just a few days ago trop related or are we seeing the first effects of the SSW?

TBH I haven't a clue, ideas anyone?

Andy

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BalderstoneNick Rookie

BalderstoneNick

Posted
  • Location: Preston,lans
  • Location: Preston,lans
Posted
4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I posted to show the trend more than anything else, the red lines are climatic averages, ECM has gone from favouring above average, 3 days ago  to now below average

image.thumb.png.bd21b11e854bb92adba6eacc9ad9c2d8.png

Wind direction charts don't seem too keen on anything from North, East or NE, unless I'm looking at it wrong?

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
14 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

ECM 00Z individual ensembles have definitely trended to more wintry weather for the middle of next week, and extended the risk a little further south and west - however, after seeing the quite shocking level of difference between the models at D4, best not to get too sucked into what the possibilities are just yet.

need GFS on board with this, 00Z not there yet

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Alexis Seasoned

Alexis

Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
Posted
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Some snow for most next week on the ECM...

AC7ECACD-F3FD-4C3D-AED5-F2DB28DCB460.jpeg

7DC6FD2D-0096-4425-9610-778B7D85B978.jpeg

71110A1C-C68F-41E8-B351-22C32BDBCB58.jpeg

If I had a pound for every one of those charts over the years! Unless it's a slider, they never come off.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

I hope GFS is way off this morning !

The trend for a high punching North and some kind of Scandy troughing looks good elsewhere.

On our side we have the SSW hopefully doing its thing and assisting for a nice Greeny high !

Greeny highs can be very rewarding in mid Jan,  its prime time !

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Morning all.  Having watched the runs over the last couple of days, I think it's going to be a tricky few days on here.  Volatility is so high in the models, that we can really look no further than 96 hours with any semblance of confidence.  As an example, look at the UKMO / ECM / GFS morning runs at 120hrs.

image.thumb.png.da9d1b5fe7a7ee9fbc6255a0665d39ff.pngimage.thumb.png.2fca92d595001281e07027c52a635938.pngimage.thumb.png.432c79e33ece97b28e9d77a1fc9442d0.png  

So whether we're seeing stellar runs in FI or Atlantic driven dross, anything beyond day 5 is very much just for fun at the moment and not to be taken seriously (unless we see a south east blizzard ).  

Having said all that, regardless of the early stages of each run, FI is tending to deliver some excellent winter charts, the proverbial 'all routes lead to cold' scenario.  I tend to agree with @CreweCold and @mountain shadow that we're looking around the 20th Jan to land something 'potentially' notable.

*But* with this much uncertainty, do not rule anything in or out from early next week onwards.  

TIme for the 6z to deliver some entertainment.

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)

GFS parallel goes the full beans from the 20th Jan onwards.

Minus 8 uppers and sub 520 thicknesses.

gfsnh-0-372.png

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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snowblind Community Regular

snowblind

Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Some snow for most next week on the ECM...

AC7ECACD-F3FD-4C3D-AED5-F2DB28DCB460.jpeg

7DC6FD2D-0096-4425-9610-778B7D85B978.jpeg

71110A1C-C68F-41E8-B351-22C32BDBCB58.jpeg

Looks good but I don't think any of these snow charts have verified recently. The met office are certainly not having any of it. Rain and noticeably milder next week is their opinion. Until they change their tune I don't think it's worth getting carried away with what the models might be showing.

Edited by snowblind
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

I hold a lot of respect for John. Put your rubber knicks on. 

weather-vane-2577254_1920.jpg?fit=1920%2

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn John Hammond's Month Ahead - Which way will winter go next?

WEATHERTRENDING.COM
With a Sudden Stratopsheric Warming under way, meteorologist John Hammond discusses the huge impacts it may have on the rest of the winter.

A good read and model related too. 

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
5 minutes ago, Alexis said:

If I had a pound for every one of those charts over the years! Unless it's a slider, they never come off.

It is a slider of sorts ......it hasn’t quite worked out how yet ... I expect if ec is in the right ball park with this then it has to work out quite a bit more on it ....

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

I hold a lot of respect for John. Put your rubber knicks on. 

weather-vane-2577254_1920.jpg?fit=1920%2

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn John Hammond's Month Ahead - Which way will winter go next?

WEATHERTRENDING.COM
With a Sudden Stratopsheric Warming under way, meteorologist John Hammond discusses the huge impacts it may have on the rest of the winter.

A good read and model related too. 

Its behind a pay wall?

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