Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[icykev]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T120 gfs & Ukmo differences are evident. Unfortunately it’s the gfs that goes on when actually it’s the ukmo I would rather see.

Looks like russian, Ice/ Greenland heights maybe going to converge with heights over the pole to open up a fierce easterly on ukmo? Any thoughts on this developing . . .

[Snowman.]

Just now, Drifter said:

I keep seeing 2013 mentioned but I seem to have had amnesia about it. If anyone can give dates of the standout cold spells so I can geek out on the archive charts it would be appreciated. 

I think I was in a haze with two young babies that winter so was barely aware what was going on the weather world!

10th -22nd Jan

Archives show lows slides SE allowing a wedge to form north easterly feed sets up, Atlantic makes in roads slides against it (18th) and a red warning is issued in wales. 
 

 

[Griff]

180 gfs vs icon

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

7 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:

Comparing yesterday's and today's 00z UKMO runs shows the direction of travel quite nicely.

 

yesterday 144hrstoday 120hrs

This post got my attention.  It did the reverse several days ago to indicate from a robust HP to our west to that it would topple.  It was right.  Now it’s showing this wedge over griceland is gaining traction...and 12z more robust too

 

BFTP

[Battleground Snow]

GFS op still slowing crawling towards the para... Should cut off the low here at 186

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Never forget 2013... UKMO was all over it & GFS ploughed the energy east!

Is this the Jan 2013 event we are comparing? 

[Cold Winter Night]

Just now, Griff said:

180 gfs vs icon

GFS obviously not as good as ICON, but we do see the formation of a Scandi High.

[JeffC]

4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

I keep seeing 2013 mentioned but I seem to have had amnesia about it. If anyone can give dates of the standout cold spells so I can geek out on the archive charts it would be appreciated. 

I think I was in a haze with two young babies that winter so was barely aware what was going on the weather world!

certainly March was cold we still had Ice days on 1st April so say 15-31st

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

10th -22nd Jan

Archives show lows slides SE allowing a wedge to form north easterly feed sets up, Atlantic makes in roads slides against it (18th) and a red warning is issued in wales. 
 

[Griff]

What seemed odd on this morning's para is back again only sooner on this run  

Look north! 

[Griff]

Meantime gfs sticking to its guns 

[Mike Poole]

54 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is this the Jan 2013 event we are comparing? 

Yes, the March event was quite different, although also related to the 7/1/13 SSW.  

Here’s the wedge from January.

Edited January 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

if that Iceland lp drops...its a boom.  That chart is majorly primed for deep cold advection SW from our NE.  LP Newfoundland vertical sheer...Greenland HP to build

 

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Is this the Jan 2013 event we are comparing? 

Theres a sort of similarity with energy going under

Heres the 2 key dates

Pic 1 is 18th Jan 2013

 

Heres the day 6 UKMO on the 12th

Energy going under excellent

Heres the GFS on the 12th

to much jet energy creating that massive low

& ECM woeful woeful woeful

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

What seemed odd on this morning's para is back again only sooner on this run  

Look north! 

 

Look East

[Tim Bland]

GFS 12z Vs 06z ... looks like it’s slowly catching on... 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Look East

Indeed but looking like it's hardly shifting east at all and heights about to pop up. 

All quite sudden

[Cold Winter Night]

Greenland High or Scandi High?

GFS can't choose and goes for both.

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Indeed but looking like it's hardly shifting east at all and heights about to pop up. 

All quite sudden

All very blocked to our north is this not a positive sign

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, the March event was quite different, although also related to the 7/1/13 SSW.  

Nearly a metre of snow I got from that.

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Greenland High or Scandi High?

GFS can't choose and goes for both.

It's always a good sign, when all routes lead to cold.

[95 Degrees]

Beasterly closer on the 12z than the 6z. Before it was centered over Poland/Belarus now it is over Germany.

 

[Ali1977]

This could be an epic FI, the SSW looks like it’s starting to come into play in the medium term - another quick switch to cold possible anywhere from around day 7/8 now in my mind.

[Man With Beard]

The GEM takes the UKMO option but goes further still ... though the UKMO is similar to the ECM and therefore must been given more weight, I definitely would not discount the GEM solution at this stage! 

[Griff]

Para taking the more difficult route to Greenland high?