Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, Griff said:

I know many hate the word potential but... 

The cut off low forms at 192, like the para on this run, (slowly moving towards it) but the low pressure system over southern Greenland will stop any ridge I'm afraid

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The cut off low forms at 192, like the para on this run, (slowly moving towards it) but the low pressure system over southern Greenland will stop any ridge I'm afraid

Again, I'm not really worried about what it's currently showing, rather what it might be moving towards and definitely with an eye back to what it had been showing earlier in the week. 

AO and NAO don't look neutral or going positive any time soon. 

[snowking]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

Must be a lot going on for the ecm op to swing back and forth and have statistical outliers run after run, as early as d6-7 in some locations? We shall learn something from this episode, how good is the ecm op in the early days of a SSWE?

 

This for me goes back to what I was saying last night - it's anecdotal in fairness, but time after time over the years I've seen the Op and Control lead the way, so they look for quite a few funs like the statistical outliers we're seeing now, before the ensembles with their lower resolution finally catch up.

In normal circumstances I am all for ensembles being followed closely for trends, but I just have a suspicion (perhaps naively!) that we are not within the usual bounds for more accurate ensemble forecasting.

We shall see!

[Notty]

Reminiscent of the LP that brought our current cold spell the difference this time is that IS cold air out east to tap into (perhaps)

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

 We shall learn something from this episode, how good is the ecm op in the early days of a SSWE?

 

Sorry but what is a SSWE? You seem to be the only one is referring to a SSWE?

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

The cut off low forms at 192, like the para on this run, (slowly moving towards it) but the low pressure system over southern Greenland will stop any ridge I'm afraid

Yes and ecm has that feature as well, which enabled the more amplified d10 chart. The ecm outcome looks a best case scenario, but the gfs 06z moved towards the other models with that cut-off low around the Azores.

 

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Sorry but what is a SSWE? You seem to be the only one is referring to a SSWE?

A Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event!

[Griff]

12 minutes ago, Griff said:

I know many hate the word potential but... 

Even I can spot the differences! 

[Weather-history]

Just now, IDO said:

Yes and ecm has that feature as well, which enabled the more amplified d10 chart. The ecm outcome looks a best case scenario, but the gfs 06z moved towards the other models with that cut-off low around the Azores.

 

A Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event!

LOL, it was the E that through me!  Doh! 

[Notty]

Quick look at the short ens and major scatter starts at 12th Jan - only 4 days away

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Notty said:

Quick look at the short ens and major scatter starts at 12th Jan - only 4 days away

I hope.. as I really believe uncertainty is our friend at present..

[Jason M]

Interesting to see both GFS and GFSP start to pull the heights west out of Iberia in the mid term. GEFS will be interesting over the next hour. Either way this is clearly very positive if backed up by tonight's runs.

[Battleground Snow]

14 minutes ago, Griff said:

Again, I'm not really worried about what it's currently showing, rather what it might be moving towards and definitely with an eye back to what it had been showing earlier in the week. 

AO and NAO don't look neutral or going positive any time soon. 

Well the operational made me look like a fool at 264, although it's a mid Atlantic ridge and not a Greenland

It seems to be 2 runs behind the para at the moment

Edit: looks another good para lining up at 216

Edited January 8, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Well the operational made me look like a fool at 264, although it's a mid Atlantic ridge and not a Greenland

It seems to be 2 runs behind the para at the moment

Edit: looks another good para lining up at 216

I was about to post this and tag you, the first always topples but second comes good, you were right yesterday and the day before

[Griff]

Just for fun, could be beautiful 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just for fun, could be beautiful 

Yes And the more reliable GFS showing slider potential as well...

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Just for fun, could be beautiful 

Looks ECMesq..... And to my understanding both ECM and GFS para are with the stronger resolution for the strat!

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

I was about to post this and tag you, the first always topples but second comes good, you were right yesterday and the day before

There are lot of perilous moving parts that have to go right for us to get there that I'm sure @nick sussex can explain the pitfalls better than me. The huge storm in Canada is what helps us form the ridge though

[Griff]

Could go silly if north America stays put.. 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Griff said:

Could go silly if north America stays put.. 

Build that wall. 

[Jason M]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yes And the more reliable GFS showing slider potential as well...

Still wet rather than white for most, but unlike the last couple of weeks we don't have the Russian high pumping warm air north to our East and therefore a much more promising set up for something to evolve down the line. We must keep the AZH away from Spain though.

[Griff]

The continuity from this morning was almost lost on me, pattern? 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Still wet rather than white for most, but unlike the last couple of weeks we don't have the Russian high pumping warm air north to our East and therefore a much more promising set up for something to evolve down the line. We must keep the AZH away from Spain though.

A bit like.. 

Don't think we can do anything to be honest, other than watch

Edited January 8, 2021 by Griff

[Griff]

Atlantic ridge or Greenland high? 

3,2,1 Fight

[Tim Bland]

Beast is coming....

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Beast is coming....

Happy where this is heading, GEM and ECM to add support? 

(moaners will go on my ignore list, makes reading this thread more healthy).