Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Beast is coming....

Not sure about Beast, but its certainly more fearsome than the 'Mouse from the Med'. 850s don't look massively impressive but they don't need to be as its not a tropical airmass and other measures would be more supportive such as dew points. Much more promising set up than we have had. Still a long way out and need more runs to make sure its not just a rogue GFS run. The fact that both Para and current opp pull the heights away from Iberia is a massive plus though.

[Tim Bland]

As you say Griff amazing consistently with last run considering it’s 280hrs !

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Happy where this is heading, GEM and ECM to add support? 

(moaners will go on my ignore list, makes reading this thread more healthy). 

the flattening of heights over Iberia are allowing the colder air a much smoother transition 

[Cloud 10]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Happy where this is heading, GEM and ECM to add support? 

(moaners will go on my ignore list, makes reading this thread more healthy). 

 

 

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, ianmm94 said:

Seems to be a recurring theme of this winter where we can't seem to tap into colder air, I know it's a long way off still

That's plenty cold enough from the East and getting colder.

[Tim Bland]

Just for fun ... 

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, ianmm94 said:

Seems to be a recurring theme of this winter where we can't seem to tap into colder air, I know it's a long way off still

On this chart the Atlantic is cut off.. 

Its snow for everyone even on the coast.. Biting wind and where snow falls you'd get some very low min temps. 

Plus as the flow evolves colder uppers would advocate this way. 

 

We don't live in siberia....

[Griff]

Someone somewhere will have a pop about FI, and that's 100% valid, anyone expecting this rather than hoping... We all know the difference. 

But I view these for the interest rather than the secured certainty of dull average weather, so of course I'm fascinated by the extremes, and appreciate how harmful the actual extreme weather could be. 

I'd rather read an interesting book than an instruction manual... 

That's said, FI, yes, 240s....

 

Spot the gap in the Atlantic... 

Edited January 8, 2021 by Griff

[Jason M]

GEFS do offer some support to the GFSP around day 8 so could be a big set of 12Z runs this afternoon. Lets hope its something to build on!

[Battleground Snow]

JFF now but at 300 is a channel low with snow for the south.

I have noticed the Arctic high remaining more robust further and further into the runs, probably caused by the subsequent warmings.

We want this to link with the Greenland high, to ensure a longer cold spell, it will also help drag even colder uppers from the North east.

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

JFF now but at 300 is a channel low with snow for the south.

I have noticed the Arctic high remaining more robust further and further into the runs, probably caused by the subsequent warmings.

We want this to link with the Greenland high, to ensure a longer cold spell, it will also help drag even colder uppers from the North east.

 

@Mike Poolewill be glad his message is beginning to be taken in!  

[Notty]

I noticed on Weds that the GEFS were trending lower after 14th. Showing the same today:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&lid=ENS&var=2&bw=1&geoid=48501

[Battleground Snow]

Control at 228!

 

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Control at 228!

 

GFS(P) at same time

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

GFS(P) at same time

Gonzo looking a bit haggard 

[Notty]

Just now, Griff said:

Gonzo looking a bit haggard 

Looks more like a fidget spinner to me

[Singularity]

Well, this is how it usually goes as SSW-driven HLB starts to be picked up on more: ECM and GEM leading GFS considerably.

However - we now have the parallel GFS showing that it might actually be an upgrade on the operational when it comes to stratosphere-driven changes.

In typical fashion, the outcomes vary in timing and orientation of the major features.

The 06z GFS(P) is a nice take, although the cold air has a long sea track hence it lacks a bit of punch compared to what we can see from north of east.

Even GFS isn't locking down high pressure over Iberia as much in the extended range, which suggests that there's been a shift toward getting the MJO moving away from the Indian Ocean.

[sebastiaan1973]

11 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Well, this is how it usually goes as SSW-driven HLB starts to be picked up on more: ECM and GEM leading GFS considerably.

However - we now have the parallel GFS showing that it might actually be an upgrade on the operational when it comes to stratosphere-driven changes.

In typical fashion, the outcomes vary in timing and orientation of the major features.

The 06z GFS(P) is a nice take, although the cold air has a long sea track hence it lacks a bit of punch compared to what we can see from north of east.

Even GFS isn't locking down high pressure over Iberia as much in the extended range, which suggests that there's been a shift toward getting the MJO moving away from the Indian Ocean.

Perhaps some whisful thinking. But I assume that the EC-oper with its superior vertical layers is the best model to deal with this situation. Even more than its members on the longer term. Which is not the case in normal situations after day 5-7.

the highest resolution "HRES" configuration is run every twelve hours out to ten days with a horizontal resolution of 9 km using 137 layers in the vertical.[3] The 51-member ensemble system "ENS" is also run every twelve hours out to 15 days with a horizontal resolution of 18 km and 91 layers in the vertical.

Integrated Forecast System - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Edited January 8, 2021 by sebastiaan1973

[Froze were the Days]

GFS runs and ECM seem to be in different ball parks...GFS (more Atlantic energy) v ECM (more blocking) - feels like we're starting to enter into another phase of model watching after a brief lull. 

[Notty]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Well, this is how it usually goes as SSW-driven HLB starts to be picked up on more: ECM and GEM leading GFS considerably.

However - we now have the parallel GFS showing that it might actually be an upgrade on the operational when it comes to stratosphere-driven changes.

In typical fashion, the outcomes vary in timing and orientation of the major features.

The 06z GFS(P) is a nice take, although the cold air has a long sea track hence it lacks a bit of punch compared to what we can see from north of east.

Even GFS isn't locking down high pressure over Iberia as much in the extended range, which suggests that there's been a shift toward getting the MJO moving away from the Indian Ocean.

Potential Major Scientific Upgrades for GFS V16 Model • Domain and resolution: • Increased vertical resolution from 64 to 127 vertical levels and raise model top from 54 km to 80 km;

Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/sti/nggps/NGGPS/Test plan for GFS_Stajner_05152019.pdf

[Climate Man]

13 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Control at 228!

 

Very close to a very long fetch Siberian easterly 

[Tim Bland]

Personally- since the recent verification stats. I’m viewing the New GFS with only a cursory glance at the old one. As others have said - with its greater handle on the strat it is starting to prove its worth 

[Griff]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Personally- since the recent verification stats. I’m viewing the New GFS with only a cursory glance at the old one. As others have said - with its greater handle on the strat it is starting to prove its worth 

It's a peach (won't use the emoji looks like a bottom) for supporting the old confirmation bias

[Froze were the Days]

10 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Very close to a very long fetch Siberian easterly 

Yes if that LP moved south east but would bet my mortgage it staying in situ or a +west based NAO developing...something us southerners would again be cheesed off about but you can see the potential (yep using that word again).

[johnholmes]

19 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Perhaps some whisful thinking. But I assume that the EC-oper with its superior vertical layers is the best model to deal with this situation. Even more than its members on the longer term. Which is not the case in normal situations after day 5-7.

the highest resolution "HRES" configuration is run every twelve hours out to ten days with a horizontal resolution of 9 km using 137 layers in the vertical.[3] The 51-member ensemble system "ENS" is also run every twelve hours out to 15 days with a horizontal resolution of 18 km and 91 layers in the vertical.

Integrated Forecast System - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

137 layers-wow, I am old enough to remember the frist Met O computer, belonging to Ferranti Manchester. It had THREE levels. Can't find the article on it from 50 years ago but I'll keep trying!