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Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please stick to discussing the model output in this thread. For more general chat , please use the winter/cold weather/snow chat, banter, moans and ramps thread. 

For local cold/snow and weather related chat, please head over to the Regional Area.

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Frigid Experienced

Frigid

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
Posted
31 minutes ago, LRD said:

Op not representative of the suite in FI

 

image.png

Those 850s are definitely trending colder with every run. The outlook sure does look very interesting 

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Mizzle Community Regular

Mizzle

Posted
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Fog, Frost, Storms and Rain if it rains like it means it.
  • Location: NE Hants/Surrey border
Posted
42 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

or the male menopause...

Which is an andropause. Not skilled enough to make it model related but seeing as we're learning new words tonight. ?‍♀️ (scary purple top emoji!)

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Nath Enthusiast

Nath

Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
Posted

Not strictly model related, but for the 1st time in god knows how many years, we might actually have some wintery weather in Jan or early Feb.

I literally cant remember the last time this happened lol

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
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Posted
1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM mean v GFS mean for almost  the same time. 19th of Jan. Control also attached

We have a ticket for something historic @Scott InghamI

No guarantees of course it has to fall perfectly into place.

Night all.

 

 

EDH1-240 (9).gif

gensnh-31-1-228 (2).png

gensnh-0-1-228 (2).png

Yes my friend! 

That 20th-30th period is looking extremeley interesting!

I believe we may also be seeing adjustments in AAM. There is some inertia thats transferred from 60n - 30/40n that will subtly be rising AAM and blocking some westerly winds at this latitude and models all winter including the gwo plotting has under estimated momentum.

PV in Scandinavia 

Vaccum created Greenland for a high

An arctic high to push the polar vortex unusually far south with extremely cold air trapped within it

You couldnt write better patterns on paper but the key for me is how much waa can we drive north to carve out high lat blocks.

Momentum is key

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

It's synoptic nonsense at D6 across Greenland/Canada.

I don't often write runs off but I can say with 99% confidence that the parallel run is garbage.

That area to the west of England didnt look right considering the pressure patterns around it. I agree its the first thing i saw

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

At this point I'm not quite sure what can stop that big, densely cold area of Siberian air hurtling SW. There's barely any W'ly momentum in the system...

Excellent post. Yes something has to give before too long.

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Such a beautifully sharp ridge on the GFS

image.thumb.png.d5bb79c94c2656c6adaf9913fa2ec18e.png

So verticle! The differences again though on all the models is insane. 168 hours and continuity nowhere. 

Fascinating to watch it unfold.

I love a good ssw.

They are all or nothing

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted (edited)

All FI so means nothing but could we hit a -15 on this run from here. 

The low off the eastwrn seaboard should maintain greenie heights for some time while the mothership heads south west!

Screenshot_20210110-043941_Samsung Internet.jpg

Maybe not. No way the ridge flattens like that @288 hours

Agaon all low res stuff!

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
Just now, Scott Ingham said:

All FI so means nothing but could we hit a -15 on this run from here. 

The low off the eastwrn seaboard should maintain greenie heights for some time while the mothership heads south west!

Screenshot_20210110-043941_Samsung Internet.jpg

Greenie high might be starting to collapse or topple at 250 - could really do with ridging up to the high pressure coming out the arctic for true nirvana charts. - all for fun at that range in any event. 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
1 minute ago, Stu_London said:

Greenie high might be starting to collapse or topple at 250 - could really do with ridging up to the high pressure coming out the arctic for true nirvana charts. - all for fun at that range in any event. 

Your right i didnt expect that.

All a variation on a theme!

Modelling is bonkers right now

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

para looked primed at 228!!

Deep cold closing in

 

 

gfsnh-0-228 (3).png

gfsnh-1-228 (1).png

That is chart of the WINTER!!!

LOOK HOW CLOSE THE -20 ISOTHERM IS!

SCARY!

Have we had uppers over at us that cold at day 9?!!

Thats brought forward!

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Your right i didnt expect that.

All a variation on a theme!

Modelling is bonkers right now

Indeed - I suspect the 00z might go off on some over progressive goose chase but the good news is, it is very unlikely to verify. 

One concern I have is that we had a SSW between 2013 and 2018 (can't remember the year) and we were always just on the wrong side of the cold (most of Europe got a really good cold spell) - and the reason we missed out was there was just a fraction too much mobility - lots of cold was modelled but shortwaves kept cropping up around 4 or 5 days and we never quite made it - hope this isn't similar. 

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted (edited)

Toppled but looks like it is going up again at 300. 

will be a stonking FI - for Greece. 

all FI fun

 

Edited by Stu_London
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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

The para is truly special, drops a ton of snow at 252 and then the -20 line is heading for the east coast at 264

gfsnh-1-264 (1).png

-14C uppers widely into Eastern parts - might be a little bit of convective action there 

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

Toppled but looks like it is going up again at 300. 

will be a stonking FI - for Greece. 

all FI fun

 

Look at the gfsp

It should model a polar high better due to 126 levels in that region 

It brings the arctic high very far south and tries to link with the greenie high.

Pushing all this cold air south with us

It also has a low pressure bringing gale force winds and blizzards!

Screenshot_20210110-045710_Samsung Internet.jpg

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Look at the gfsp

It should model a polar high better due to 126 levels in that region 

It brings the arctic high very far south and tries to link with the greenie high.

Pushing all this cold air south with us

It also has a low pressure bringing gale force winds and blizzards!

Screenshot_20210110-045710_Samsung Internet.jpg

Lets hope that Para has a better handle on the pattern than the regular GFS which is only really good if you like fog.

Para at 252 would be brutal - perhaps like 1987 for the eastern side of the country.

Edited by Stu_London
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