Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[blizzard81]

For those worried about the cold goodies staying at day 10 onwards, this is not the case with the gfs para. This is now day 8.

[SLEETY]

gfs p is great whilst the normal gfs is throwing out crud,lets hope the gfs p is on the money here,going to be epic run this!

[Notty]

I like the look of the GFS(P)

[sheikhy]

In an ideal world we would want an upgrade in the cold air in the short term and get the greenland high in later!!now that would be something!!

[Valleyboy]

38 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Almost impossible to figure out what the outlook is going to be. I feel the usual scenario will occur around 12/13th Jan as we see a shift W of the high pressure to our NE and less progress from the Atlantic. Whilst I wouldn't expect this to change to sudden cold E,lys the effects of which have a knock on effect later on.

We then have the added complication of the Arctic high and polar vortex bringing a bitterly cold airmass to NE Europe. The effects on the UK could be a bitterly cold, convective cold spell or a moderately cold spell but with battleground blizzards or even both. l  haven't included the milder option because as I said in the covid thread, I do not want to see a severe cold spell this winter. I bet it will be sods law we get one when this is the last thing the country needs!

Past experience makes me think that easterlies will show up at short notice, so 5 days out, rather than 10 days out that we keep seeing on the models.  The next seven days of model watching will be very interesting as the models sniff out a genuine cold solution.  I think most on here would be delighted with a severe cold spell, at least it would keep people at home.

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6z is one of the most frustrating runs ever...

I would stick with the very consistent para. 

[Griff]

Jaws shark attack music... 

[Windysun1]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

For those worried about the cold goodies staying at day 10 onwards, this is not the case with the gfs para. This is now day 8.

How reliable is the gfs para compared with outher models?

Just wondering is it consistent in showing this outcome? Cheers 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Windysun1

[KTtom]

Thats 2 poor runs now from gfs and ecm operationals, gfsp is onto something tho...very similar to p1 from the 00z run with the trigger low moving east over the uk with real polar air in its wake..

 

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

gfs p is great whilst the normal gfs is throwing out crud,lets hope the gfs p is on the money here,going to be epic run this!

Just remember the verification stats...GFS p is performing well above GFS !  GFS should just be treated as another ensemble or run similar to JMA or NASA 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Tim Bland

[Notty]

Widespread snow a week Tuesday according to GFS(P) 6z - with colder weather to follow ...

[Weathizard]

Very up in the air at the moment but the two trends I keep seeing in medium/long range: Azores high and the vortex around NF/Eastern Canada.

 

Spells trouble if it’s cold you’re after, it’s clear the models are absolutely clueless at the moment so I’m just looking for general trends.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Windysun1 said:

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

For those worried about the cold goodies staying at day 10 onwards, this is not the case with the gfs para. This is now day 8.

How reliable is the gfs para compared with outher models?

Expand  

I'm not sure to be honest. I know it will be the new gfs shortly so you would like to think it was more reliable/accurate. 

[Griff]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Just remember the verification stats...GFS p is performing well above GFS !  GFS should just be treated as another ensemble or run similar to JMA or NASA 

I'm waiting for me new bestie the gem to get on board 

[SLEETY]

WTF moment coming up on gfs P ,historic cold spell if it ever verified

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Look at that NH profile...

But of little use to us.  The runs today are very uninspiring for our neck of the woods.  The effects of the SSW haven’t been ditched as incredible cokd is shunted well south just that the models don’t see a hit for us on today’s runs thus far.  

 

BFTP

[blizzard81]

Holy sweet Jesus and Mary!

[Notty]

-24 850's incoming (JFF (trademark MJB) of course)

[Griff]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

But of little use to us.  The runs today are very uninspiring for our neck of the woods.  The effects of the SSW haven’t been ditched as incredible cokd is shunted well south just that the models don’t see a hit for us on today’s runs thus far.  

 

BFTP

Well this is nice to look at on a foggy Sunday morning whether it comes off or not

[bluearmy]

if we do somehow manage to get to this place (broadly), notice the cold upper ridge circled which is the remnants of the arctic high. It’s important as it would prevent the coldest air backing west at too high a latitude. Signs on recent eps means that this could well happen if we get the greeny height rise .
 

[Tim Bland]

Looking good! ...is Denmark allowing visitors?   ...asking for a friend...

[snowking]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

if we do somehow manage to get to this place (broadly), notice the cold upper ridge circled which is the remnants of the arctic high. It’s important as it would prevent the coldest air backing west at too high a latitude. Signs on recent eps means that this could well happen if we get the greeny height rise .
 

Was just about the comment the same - the Arctic high coming down into Svalbard is a thing of legend and very rare to see - only if this happens will the extreme 850mb temperatures reach our shores.

No point stressing about any output at this range yet as it will be many days before we know exactly how the Arctic high is going to manifest itself

Edited January 10, 2021 by snowking

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

if we do somehow manage to get to this place (broadly), notice the cold upper ridge circled which is the remnants of the arctic high. It’s important as it would prevent the coldest air backing west at too high a latitude. Signs on recent eps means that this could well happen if we get the greeny height rise .
 

We can but dream Nick, we can but dream..

[Battleground Snow]

I'm not sure how it has topped it's earlier run but it somehow has! Snow in earlier too.

Edit: added black hole Greenland anomaly

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

if we do somehow manage to get to this place (broadly), notice the cold upper ridge circled which is the remnants of the arctic high. It’s important as it would prevent the coldest air backing west at too high a latitude. Signs on recent eps means that this could well happen if we get the greeny height rise .
 

I would suggest that if you are looking at detail that specific, at that range...then you have nothing better to do