Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Griff]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

I'm not sure how it has topped it's earlier run but it somehow has! Snow in earlier too.

 

 

You could have had an extra 4 hours of sleep... 

[Methuselah]

Now that's what I call 'close'... Just clipping the left-hand upright!

    

[Kentspur]

Those uppers on GFSp minus 10c widely!

[Captain Shortwave]

The deepest cold over Scandinavia would never make it across to the U.K. under that set up. It will simply blow up a deep low in the North Sea. However with that spinning around along with sub -8c 850s, it will get the job done with frequent showers and longer spells of snow (especially on windward coasts).

The beast would require that Arctic high to drop further towards Scandinavia and as such allow the coldest air to push through Central Europe.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Captain Shortwave

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, MKN said:

Medium term? Id say fairly near term as Its already a fair bit different to the 00z at just +96. Models are certainly struggling atm. 

I currently have medium term starting at day 4 !  I do take your point ..... tbh, the output day 3/4 to day 6/7 is just noise at the moment.  Unreliable and nothing nice to look at in any case! 

[Tim Bland]

We have the cold ...we just need a low...look west

[NewEra21]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

WTF moment coming up on gfs P ,historic cold spell if it ever verified

Well one of the models has to see the right outcome eventually, let's just hope it's the GFS P.

It's the one model showing any real consistency at the moment, whether it's consistently right or wrong we'll eventually find out!

[That ECM]

Imagine

[ICE COLD]

OMG the para is the holy grail . 

[DIS1970]

A lot of hope rather than expectation at the moment, any forecast beyond 5 days is completely unreliable, as this is the UK & forecasts are just like an elastic band. Seen this over the years, so just not worth stressing over them at the mo, as there may be  - i hope not, a fair amount of disappointment.

[Notty]

Although I like the output, I think GFS(P) is inconsistent after T+192. I'll have to check back and see if it goes low res at some point.

Edited January 10, 2021 by Notty

[NewEra21]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Imagine

I might be wrong, but with the current SSW and more warmings to come. I just can't see the vortex becoming quite that strong.

Edited January 10, 2021 by NewEra21

[Battleground Snow]

Just now, DIS1970 said:

A lot of hope rather than expectation at the moment, any forecast beyond 5 days is completely unreliable, as this is the UK & forecasts are just like an elastic band. Seen this over the years, so just not worth stressing over them at the mo, as there may be  - i hope not, a fair amount of disappointment.

Very true, we need to be very grounded still, but the cut off low happens (or doesn't happen) at 138 now. It would be very likely we get some kind of Atlantic / greeny / Arctic link up if it does.

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

OMG the para is the holy grail . 

It's consistency has been something special over the past few runs, almost identical.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 never mind Rob Van Dam there’s the 510 dam GFS P 00z current run  and there’s only one word to sum up lots of the ensembles .. crazy   gem ensembles the same, I particularly liked P18 & 20 

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GEM (GENS GEM / CMC ENS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 And relax, stay calm KW

[Battleground Snow]

Control cuts off the low and I guess most of the ensembles do based on this mean.. hopefully the OP is wrong.

 

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Notty]

Off topic I know but I think I'm going to hibernate for 5 days - my nerves can't take it 

[ICE COLD]

The mean is better than the op . 

 

Edit - @Battleground Snowbeat me to it

Edited January 10, 2021 by ICE COLD

[Cloud 10]

GFS (p)

 

[Gustywind]

Rarely post but have lurked for over a decade, so thought I’d add my thoughts for once!

Strikes me that we have a recurring issue, the alluring promise of GHP in +200 hour charts on the GFS, but which never come to fruition.
 

Once we get down into the more reliable range the models pick up on disturbances in the GIN corridor, particularly the S Greenland area, this then prevents the Greenie High & the U.K. gets left with a toppling high or stuck with a trough on or around the U.K. 

Im yet to see anything in the models today to suggest this issue is going away. What’s causing it I’ll leave to the experts - SST’s, global warming ?? Perhaps models struggle with energy distribution until nearer the time?

If we can overcome this then something like the GFS (P) has shown today is quite possible, big IF though sadly!

[ALL ABOARD]

Lock it in.... 

Would be historic. 

[Tim Bland]

X rated

[mountain shadow]

We're getting close to something very special.

Just need an ECM op to come on board and calm the nerves!

[Valleyboy]

15 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

OMG the para is the holy grail . 

Yep, that’s what we want, a true beast with incoming snow.

[Valleyboy]

3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Lock it in.... 

Would be historic. 

That’s got SSW written all over it.