Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

[Weathizard]

The fact the GFS para and OP are so different says it all, farcical that there can be such a difference between essentially, the same model.

One has a raging PV and awful set up for cold and one is the holy grail for U.K. cold, you couldn’t make that up. Our old friend Shannon is back.

[MJB]

GFSP is stunning .............if only 

[DIS1970]

4 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

GFS (p)

 

Nice as it is, but odds on charts having any similarity to that on the 22nd? - not worth the bet.

[Alexis]

I think everybody needs to temper their excitement. The only model showing anything interesting is an experimental beta that never usually gets mentioned!

[Man With Beard]

Netweather crew, does it get any better than this?

Big block to NW. Freezing cold feed from NNE. Active Atlantic exiting via Bay of Biscay, with more lows lined up in the Atlantic to take the same route. Is this the dream?

*In no way am I suggesting this is what I think will happen, btw

[Penicuikblizzard]

15 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 never mind Rob Van Dam there’s the 510 dam GFS P 00z current run  and there’s only one word to sum up lots of the ensembles .. crazy   gem ensembles the same, I particularly liked P18 & 20 

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble GEM (GENS GEM / CMC ENS)

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 And relax, stay calm KW

Do these ensembles charts ever come to fruition

[MJB]

18 minutes ago, Notty said:

Although I like the output, I think GFS(P) is inconsistent after T+192. I'll have to check back and see if it goes low res at some point.

Thing is mate they are all inconsistent after 120 at the minute , its a job what to know we will get from this lucky dip 

[Frostbite1980]

If the GFS P verified we could well be looking at a sub zero CET for January....Now that would be special 

[Cloud 10]

24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I currently have medium term starting at day 4 !  I do take your point ..... tbh, the output day 3/4 to day 6/7 is just noise at the moment.  Unreliable and nothing nice to look at in any case! 

 

Sounds like my old car!

[Mucka]

GFSp bringing the goods after this mornings ECM flop.

-4C by day is pretty chilly for the UK 

 

Meanwhile back in the more reliable (though less so than usual right now) we have seen significant change in the ensembles.

Check the 850's for Jan 15th

12z short ensembles from yesterday

todays 06z short ensembles

That is from 0C to around -5C and it is only day 5 away.

It is the product of GFS splitting more energy SE from day 4 which brings enough cold air off the continent to raise the possibility of some snow for the SE

Edited January 10, 2021 by Mucka

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

I think everybody needs to temper their excitement. The only model showing anything interesting is an experimental beta that never usually gets mentioned!

I've had similar thoughts. It's a test model and we have no idea? If we in essence seeing tweaks being played into the run for testing.   But for balance I have read it is verification well.   

[bobbydog]

5 minutes ago, Alexis said:

I think everybody needs to temper their excitement. The only model showing anything interesting is an experimental beta that never usually gets mentioned!

Worth mentioning though, the GFS(P) to which you are referring, becomes the operational next month..... 

[Battleground Snow]

Does anyone have the link to the NH verification stats and how often they get updated? If will be interesting to monitor how much the para pulls ahead of the GFS op once this period passes. I have a feeling it might even take a run at the ECM

[DIS1970]

An old Everly Brothers song should be played routinely after each update, i'll leave you to all to have a think, seems appropriate with what is currently happening above up in our atmosphere - may reduce your stress a little.

[Ali1977]

The day 10 mean suggests the control

wont be an outlier 

[winterof79]

Thinking about a new boiler if this occurs

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I've heard a lot said about the poor early morning runs...pardon the pun....from ECM...but wow....come on,the ops just do what they do most days,they throw up a load of different ideas and play around with them,before dropping them for another idea..Stick with the ens and mean...And the 0Z mean is solid once again,like it was last night. That tells me it is trending colder again. Its not worth the stress medication of what some of these ops are throwing up...steady as she goes..

Edited January 10, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Thinking about a new boiler if this occurs

me Nan's 96th birthday! but the GFS op showing boring rubbish

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Does anyone have the link to the NH verification stats and how often they get updated? If will be interesting to monitor how much the para pulls ahead of the GFS op once this period passes. I have a feeling it might even take a run at the ECM

GFS op is outperforming the gfsP on both 0z and 12z stats:

ATM we are looking at this upgrade making gfs reliability even worse in setups like this. I understand that the gfsP has been tuned by ecm so no surprise it is more amplified in FI and as it goes out to d16 that is exaggerated even further! 

Fantastic in Winter when we get d10 ecm and gfsP charts showing phantom heights that are always out of reach!

Link  >here<

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Do these ensembles charts ever come to fruition

It’s all about looking for trends in the ensembles for certain patterns be that higher pressure and heat in summer or charts like we are seeing now, I always try my best to remain unbiased even as a massive snow lover if it’s a poor outlook I will say so and like I’ve mentioned usually I try to think of it as possibility > trend > outcome of course something like those GFS runs are at the mega end of the UK cold spectrum but the first hints that I seen started on New Year’s Eve that’s why I kept these charts some others from New Year’s Day  so that’s been 10/11 days of a pretty persistent signal for the charts we are now speaking about and that’s also what I look for with the ensembles those charts at the end of runs going down in the timeframes and sure enough those that were at +384 are now say around +240 etc. Can’t help but get excited seeing those kinds of charts but I’ll be trying very hard to contain that until we see how things continue developing this week but

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

me Nan's 96th birthday! but the GFS op showing boring rubbish

Ensembles are a must in the short term whilst the ops figure it out

[Tim Bland]

I can’t imagine the 06z GFS being repeated later as it was a clear outlier. Coldest set so far with the mean now sub -5c from 15th!...

Edited January 10, 2021 by Tim Bland

[DIS1970]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

me Nan's 96th birthday! but the GFS op showing boring rubbish

Yep, 15 days time, 15 hours is tough enough.

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The day 10 mean suggests the control

wont be an outlier 

 

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The day 10 mean suggests the control

wont be an outlier 

Yes nice mean Ali. Could be the coldest set yet for this potential cold spell

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For all the model woes it is really a pretty simple yes/no scenario in FI

That lobe of vortex was always going to head S/SW toward N Europe. I spoke about the GFSp scenario nearly a week ago.

For us it is all about getting enough blocking to our W to allow the trough to push far enough SW to bring in the cold from the NE.

So long as we get the blocking the deep cold is guaranteed.

[ThamesStreamer]

Christ, look at the switch in the GEFS from the 00z (left) to the 06z (right). Must be something afoot to see such a pronounced movement in the ensembles from a crazy spread to a more confident outlook?