Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[KTtom]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Ecm looks ok

Looks very good, very different from UKMO at just 120! 

Edited January 12, 2021 by KTtom

[Griff]

Just now, KTtom said:

Looms very good, very different from UKMO at just 120! 

Written in haste, I meant cleared for take off as opposed to crashed into the terminal.... 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, MKN said:

That would be a close but no cigar for leicester i think. But its getting closer. Another shift west i think would be good for a lot more of us. 

Yes, at the moment it’s probably Peterborough up to Aberdeen that’s in the sweet spot with North York moors in for another pasting. I wouldn’t rule out another jot south and west tomorrow though...it could also go north & east again of course

[nick sussex]

Ironically it’s the more amplified little ridge to the west at T96 hrs that you don’t want to see re the UKMO . As that then will hold the trouble some low on the tip of Greenland further west .

And the more amplified that ridge is the more likely you’ll end up a real struggle to get the pattern sufficiently east , equally ironic the more amplified that is the better chance of a snow event on Saturday as that will disrupt a shortwave se with a better se undercut.

Edited January 12, 2021 by nick sussex

[Harsh Climate]

Shouldn't these forecasted precipitation maps be taken with a pinch of salt after last fridays debacle? 

Every single one was way off the mark, the snow band over north and west yorkshire never really left that area even though forecast to head south west through NW england into SW england and lasted hours longer than forecast!

Some places like harrogate and north west suburbs leeds ended up with 6"+ albeit above 500ft.

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Ironically it’s the more amplified little ridge to the west at T96 hrs that you don’t want to see re the UKMO . As that then will hold the trouble some low on the tip of Greenland further west .

And the more amplified that is the more likely you’ll end up a real struggle to get the pattern sufficiently east , equally ironic the more amplified that is the better chance of a snow event on Saturday as that will disrupt a shortwave se with a better se undercut.

can't win 

 

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Every single one was way off the mark

The UKV kept that front up there until it fizzled out. I can't vouch for other models, but the UKV did very well.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Mapantz

[Battleground Snow]

ECM most like gem at 144 and good WAA. No phasing issues.

Easier to see on wetterzentrale

 

[Weathizard]

ECM verdict - a firm no in regards to the phasing of the lows, our first vital hurdle, I don’t see the ECM being wrong in that at this range.

[Tim Bland]

Day 6 and up she goes 

[Daniel*]

Interesting adjustments to earlier ECM 00z low further SW like other more intriguing models cold air can wrap round quicker as it exits SE.

> 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, looks like this run could go well:

[nick sussex]

Just now, BARRY said:

can't win 

 

Welcome to UK winters ! It really is like pulling teeth sometimes to get drama free routes to cold and snow .  When I decided on my French adventure I made sure it had mountains close by . I really feel for UK coldies , it really is frustrating .

[Weathizard]

A much less organised LP and the Atlantic should be shut out from there, whether we get the cold spell we all crave we’d be very unfortunate to get to this at 144 and not end up somewhere half decent down the line... albeit the U.K. seems to find a way to avoid the cold in winter, let’s hope not this time.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Weathizard

[I remember Atlantic 252]

FAX looks further west Thurs, but a lot of Midlands in mild sector Wed night

[Shunter]

 

Wind at 10hpa went Easterly at 06:00 this morning ( -0.7m/s )....might give a shade more momentum to the block retrogression out East ?   

 

 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Shunter

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM most like gem at 144 and good WAA. No phasing issues.

Easier to see on wetterzentrale

 

 

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 6 and up she goes 

 

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144, looks like this run could go well:

A bit of a relief given a lot of dependency on the GFS ensembles and mean to improve the outlook and atmosphere around here a couple of hours ago... 

Thanks mods for banishing the trolls, let's keep this place positive, regardless to personal preferences. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

T144 12z

shouldn't become this

t168 0z

 

It looks a cleaner move on the 12z

Edit...it doesn’t , the low further east, better shaped block, and the trough to SW zipping east into the channel

BFTP

Edited January 12, 2021 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sebastiaan1973]

I find it hard to understand (so please tell me) why this is a good chart, the cold air eroses the Greenlandhigh.

[Allseasons-Si]

Tea finished within record time ha ha...

ECM at 144,....yay!

 

[Matt H]

ECM 12z at t168 is fantastic. What a relief!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168, clean ridge, really strong, the question is can the cold air get far enough south to the UK on this one?  Other models have struggled this afternoon, let’s see...

[Lampostwatcher]

ECM t168 is a boom from me 

❄❄❄

[NewEra21]

ECM 168, best of the night!

Edited January 12, 2021 by NewEra21

[sebastiaan1973]

This is to far to the west with cold air pushed southwest. Low pressure will stay to much to the north around the North Sea. Sorry to say

Edited January 12, 2021 by sebastiaan1973