Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

[Allseasons-Si]

ECM at 216 looks OK with no interference from the Atlantic...the 240 chart will be better.

[Griff]

Seems to be bringing the cold, what's the concern? 

Surely you have to be in it to win it, starting to suspect some people think we live in Norway? 

Ahhhh, I understand we all want instantaneous blizzards... 

 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, AFCBSNOW said:

How many times does it have to be said in here?? Get the pattern first, then the cold will come, some people really need to take a couple of days off I think.  You would thrown every member of your family under the bus for half of these synoptics over the last 10 years!!

I think that is the issue, great Synoptics but indifferent uppers for the south at least it’s currently mutton dressed as lamb..and we coldies are demanding :) -4s at the face of it need more work.. although I will concede I have no idea on how such a slack pattern at 192 and 216 will delivery at the surface..

[nick sussex]

The Arctic high is a bit stronger here which is good to see . A later phasing of that shortwave energy to the sw with the UK low pressure would help .

There’s likely to be some snow but not the depth of cold many would like to see .

At the moment the ECM keeps that shortwave energy in the Atlantic shallow which is encouraging .

Overall not bad but any se corrections would be very welcome .

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The point is the key part of this evolution starts at day 5/6 once you get past that; it’s cold in some way or another, too many looking at micro differences rather than the pattern in general Imo

Agree to a certain extent but there is a definite trend to a west based negative NAO pulling all the colder uppers into the Atlantic. Not only that the frigid air over Scandi is less prevalent on this run, all in all I am a little disappointed however this is only one op run and could show something totally different tomorrow 

[Gadje]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Fear not gang , cold arrived bang on time - 20th , with scattered snow showers ~ whilst we await something more substantial from the south west...

Thanks for the UK map. I wonder what people living north of the UK are getting regards weather.

[sebastiaan1973]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The point is the key part of this evolution starts at day 5/6 once you get past that; it’s cold in some way or another, too many looking at micro differences rather than the pattern in general Imo

At day 6 it is (my point of view) already clear we can't get any significant Arctic air. The Greenlandhigh is not powerful enough and to much to the west.

The problem is, this is alreay on day 6. So little room to improve.

[NewEra21]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Putting the uppers to one side for a moment, it’s great to see that the ECM is still establishing a HLB over Greenland. Our issue before was that the mid Atlantic ridge collapsed before any notable uppers turned up. If a decent HLB sets up then eventually we should get there with the uppers. Just my thoughts anyway. 

100%, just get that high set up and the pattern is set. Worry about the rest later.

[Allseasons-Si]

WOW!!!

ECM at day ten,...YES,day ten but what a corker.

[Johnp]

Essentially to get proper deep cold in the  south, we usually require the winds to be curved around an area of high pressure (such as a scandy high) so that the winds have as little sea track as possible. 

These deep low pressures that move across us and take an age to fill just waste time down here. 

[AFCBSNOW]

Just now, TSNWK said:

I think that is the issue, great Synoptics but indifferent uppers for the south at least it’s currently mutton dressed as lamb..and we coldies are demanding -4s at the face of it need more work.. although I will concede I have no idea on how such a slack pattern at 192 and 216 will delivery at the surface..

In the current set up, even for us on the South coast, the uppers will largely be irrespective, due to where it is coming from, we pulled from a warm plume last shot, this one is much stronger.  We will see upgrades, just if we go on the previous spell.  I just dont see the point in micro analysing every single chart.  The trend is your friend.

[Djdazzle]

ECM isn’t a bad run, but against the backdrop of “SSW’s”, “historic January” and “nailed on cold”, it seems poor.

[Methuselah]

Another set of interesting GEFS temp ens... Looks like a story of two clusters, to me; one mild and one cold, with the op floating around between the two? Nothing nailed!

    

And the NHPs... I guess they're still slowly coming round:

    

    

[weirpig]

Looks like per met office  perhaps sliders hitting colder air at 240 ?

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Seems to be bringing the cold, what's the concern? 

Surely you have to be in it to win it, starting to suspect some people think we live in Norway? 

Ahhhh, I understand we all want instantaneous blizzards... 

 

 

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

WOW!!!

ECM at day ten,...YES,day ten but what a corker.

Seems like the clear evolution on this run, and has been signposted quite well of late. 

(moaners make yourself clear please for my ignore list, ta) 

[Ali1977]

Uppers might not be severely cold yet , but I imagine surface cold will be severe in that cold stagnent air. Ice days probably, and snow probably in many places !! 

Edited January 12, 2021 by Ali1977

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

I think, on balance, this NW Atlantic ridge is going to verify. I know in theory one should wait for D5, but I'm content to go early because the tilt of the lows coming off Canada are so negative by D5, the models will have to be extremely wrong for there to be a turnaround. Usually the GFS finds an extra low to pump across Greenland around this time, but I don't think that's going to happen, because any new low looks far more likely to go under the block than over it. Greenland ridge here we come! Next fence: west based -NAO.

It’s funny this obsession with a West based NAO. I’d rather see a West based NAO than a big +NAO

Also, if the West Based NAO is a very large one, it could still extend its influence and land us with some very cold weather and will drive the jet stream way south. 

Edited January 12, 2021 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Notty]

Not too shabby:

[Froze were the Days]

Every model goes for that bloody continuous troughing through the Norwegian Sea northwards, if that wasn't there we'd no doubt see colder uppers. I just wish it would collapse southwards. A better run by the ECM but not sure how much confidence in the latter stages 216-240z.

Edited January 12, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[danm]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Essentially to get proper deep cold in the  south, we usually require the winds to be curved around an area of high pressure (such as a scandy high) so that the winds have as little sea track as possible. 

These deep low pressures that move across us and take an age to fill just waste time down here. 

But from such a set up we don’t always need deep cold, even down here. 

[Valleyboy]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

WOW!!!

ECM at day ten,...YES,day ten but what a corker.

If you like wet weather.  We need a continental feed.

[Mucka]

JMA 192

[Notty]

1 minute ago, Notty said:

Not too shabby:

Posted the wrong chart -

[Allseasons-Si]

FWIW,...the jma at 192 is not bad either.

Edit:i see @Mucka has just posted it ^^

Edited January 12, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Sweatyman]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

Seems like the clear evolution on this run, and has been signposted quite well of late. 

(moaners make yourself clear please for my ignore list, ta) 

way too many moaners at these ecm charts