Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[icykev]

Here we go @234

[DavidS]

After the milder period with heights over Iberia, the GfS is continuing to show these heights pull west. This was previously outside D10 but is now inside this period.

[Griff]

Pretty and different compared to recent runs even if it never happens... 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Pretty and different compared to recent runs even if it never happens... 

For what it worths I think that's attempting to show a direct strat / trop imprint from next split... 

Place your bets now as to who gets the payoff. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Griff

[Don]

2 hours ago, stodge said:

 As is so often the case, cold fans are going to have to wait for teleconnection changes or SSW changes to manifest themselves perhaps as we move into February. 

Hi Stodge.  Are you still thinking there is a good chance of a cold February?

[Uncertainty]

Thinking of throwing in the cold towel for this winter?

- Clear signs of convection moving into the western pacific

- Weakening La Niña signal 

- The best set of ensembles for favourable Northern blocking in the day 10+ range for quite some time, building upon a very blocked week 3 EC46

- This 18z might not get there, but It looks like it’s toying with the idea of Scandi heights. I have a feeling quite a few runs will get there in the near future.

The continued weak vortex state leaves blocking patterns open to development, we just need a trigger. Hopefully this mjo wave upgrades higher towards the 6/7 phase space over the coming days. If it does, combined with what looks like another technical reversal, then that’s a very good position to be entering February with, regardless of the disappointment this fascinating, generally blocked winter has brought to many so far.

Lets be honest, if we had that mjo forecast combined with an upcoming strat reversal in a winter that had seen little blocking up to this point then this forum would be a lot busier. Unfortunately, the mode bias of this winter thus far has been to downgrade great charts for U.K. cold at day 8-9 so it’s understandable that things are quite tonight (present company excluding the excellent @Griff). For me, the background signals are better now than they have ever been. I’ve been stung so may times even just this year by blocking fails that I’m not going to get excited by this but objectively, Scandi heights at day 10-12 seems a logical progression. 

Its a real shame the parallel’s gone all inconsistent with its data release as it was quite consistently showing heights over Scandi. 

Let’s see where we are by the end of the weekend... snow chances for some, North and South in the meantime. 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Uncertainy

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, Griff said:

Perhaps milder next week but gradually colder towards next weekend Griff..Cold air is lurking to the NE...And I have a graph here from M Ventrice of a very possible warming of the strat next week...yet more aggro for the models to deal with..I think I nicked the chart from your twitter page

Ps...I don't understand why all the big hitters on here were talking about front loaded winter for... I said all along it would be a backended one..come show your appreciation by following me on Twitter.. only joking folks I will drive you nuts.

[Don]

28 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Its must be said again..Overall poor model output.. but the EC46 is very promising it as to be said.Its possible we could revert back to more blocking next month...Matt H also pointing this fact out. Also of note  Marco P just pointed out to me that its only been 2 weeks since the warming,and perhaps the very frigid conditions in siberia are a result of it...and that this warmer spell incoming could be the la nina imprint on things.. So we could still be waiting for the impacts on the UK of that earlier warming,and with further warming likely and a lag time we could be pushing cold conditions into late spring....seriously its possible.

I suppose the question is will the impacts from the first warming and further warmings of the strat be enough to overcome the Nina signal?  I'm guessing eventually they will but will that be in February or March?

Edited January 21, 2021 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I suppose the question is will the impacts from the first warming and further warmings of the strat be enough to overcome the Nina signal?  I'm guessing eventually they will but will that be February or March?

Conflicting signals playing out Don..This SSW may have brought much colder conditions to some parts of the NH..namely Siberia..The recent cold and snow to the North may have been part of that cycle..let's not forget Eastern USA seem to have had a bum deal to this point also..This warmer spell could be some La Nina forcing,but for how long will it imprint itself is the big question. Then we have the real possibility of another warming,maybe even a big one....The interest is there for sure...could be late winter dramatics here Don...

 

 

[icykev]

9 minutes ago, Griff said:

For what it worths I think that's attempting to show a direct strat / trop imprint from next split... 

Place your bets now as to who gets the payoff. 

Nearly a split that Griff, think it may start to show on more models/charts soon. To me @ around +240 is key.

 I'm camping in the "payoff" till at least April✌. Yourself @Griff?

Many reasons, will post a few later, mjo/repetitive amplification in Atlantic is key

[DavidS]

Well we’ll, it would be good to see this theme develop

[Don]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Conflicting signals playing out Don..This SSW may have brought much colder conditions to some parts of the NH..namely Siberia..The recent cold and snow to the North may have been part of that cycle..let's not forget Eastern USA seem to have had a bum deal to this point also..This warmer spell could be some La Nina forcing,but for how long will it imprint itself is the big question. Then we have the real possibility of another warming,maybe even a big one....The interest is there for sure...could be late winter dramatics here Don...

 

 

Well, better late than never is what I say ref late winter and as I've said before, beggars can't be choosers in this country when it comes to wanting snow lol! 

PS hoping to see a bit of snow this weekend before that vile mild stuff arrives next week, you just never know! 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Don

[Vikos]

20 minutes ago, Griff said:

Pretty and different compared to recent runs even if it never happens... 

I did mention it on the EC run, 240h chart, that this ridge from the Beaufort sea might be the driver for a split. So GFS seems to join this party. I postet a chart over in the strat Thread that shows the massive downgrading development of the NH 2m temps as an result of that disturbed circulation by change of month. 
So, again, background signals are in for some changes into real cold. Some may will rub their eyes in humility. 
Game is not over...

[A Frayed Knot]

5 minutes ago, DavidS said:

Well we’ll, it would be good to see this theme develop

And the theme is? 

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

And the theme is? 

cold cold easterly

[icykev]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

cold cold easterly

Or more of a cold cold North Easterly

[Uncertainty]

21 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Conflicting signals playing out Don..This SSW may have brought much colder conditions to some parts of the NH..namely Siberia..The recent cold and snow to the North may have been part of that cycle..let's not forget Eastern USA seem to have had a bum deal to this point also..This warmer spell could be some La Nina forcing,but for how long will it imprint itself is the big question. Then we have the real possibility of another warming,maybe even a big one....The interest is there for sure...could be late winter dramatics here Don...

 

 

The big hitters I look out for are a weak vortex which we have and a good amplitude mjo wave into 6-7-8 which way might soon have (and we have not had this all winter) The latter gives you the momentum boost to wedge heights north to meet the Arctic blocking seeded by the weak vortex. Many legendary midwinter spells have started this way (think Feb18,  Jan 47, Dec62 etc) not saying for a second this could be comparable I’m simply saying look out for a wedge of heights launching (or as Gav P aptly puts it, getting ‘sucked up’) through / near the UK towards an Arctic area of high pressure. You can see this on the 18z

Actually this is v similar to the 12z and a small but growing cohort of eps / GEFS members. Cold fans need this signal to grow now, flourish even, with few slip ups, for at least 5-6 days now until we see a mean easterly on the charts. Then we can start popping the corks (obviously not lol I haven’t forgotten Jan 19) but we can then start to look to get the UKMO etc on board and really get excited.

This is all a very tall order yes but if it’s what’s actually going to happen the models will see it pretty  soon they won’t miss such a hemisphere defining event. 
 

Next thing on the checklist is for an ECM op to go for it, the GEM has toyed with it but we need the former to start sniffing it out in the coming days. Then the nail biting can truly begin!

Edited January 21, 2021 by Uncertainy

[feb1991blizzard]

Whats happened to the EPS london graph?, its gone

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

The big hitters I look out for are a weak vortex which we have and a good amplitude mjo wave into 6-7-8 which way might soon have (and we have not had this all winter) The latter gives you the momentum boost to wedge heights north to meet the Arctic blocking seeded by the weak vortex. Many legendary midwinter spells have started this way (think Feb18,  Jan 47, Dec62 etc) not saying for a second this could be comparable I’m simply saying look out for a wedge of heights launching (or as Gav P aptly puts it, getting ‘sucked up’) through / near the UK towards an Arctic area of high pressure. You can see this on the 18z

 

If the MJO wave moves through 6-7-8 could that be a good sign the Nina signal is being overridden as there have been reservations for the MJO forecast accuracy this winter due to La Nina?

[Don]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whats happened to the EPS london graph?, its gone

 

It's crashed due to it suddenly flipping to a frozen outlook!

[Allseasons-Si]

Evening guys

there is hints in the models over the last few days to get some ridging/blocking to our north in fl starting in the Atlantic,the latest gfs shows this this evening starting at just 222 hrs

then this deepest in fl i know but this looks like MJO driven into phase 6/7 at trying to get a block to our N/NE

looking at the eps tactile upto 192 hours and you can see the latest(red) ens starting to push the blocking from the SW towards the UK(center of circle),i have drawn a black arrow as to where i hope that this direction of travel will be in the next few days

and finally the CFSv2 still are churning out good northern blocking for next month...

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Whats happened to the EPS london graph?, its gone

 

This one?

Edited January 21, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Evening guys

there is hints in the models over the last few days to get some ridging/blocking to our north in fl starting in the Atlantic,the latest gfs shows this this evening starting at just 222 hrs

then this deepest in fl i know but this looks like MJO driven into phase 6/7 at trying to get a block to our N/NE

looking at the eps tactile upto 192 hours and you can see the latest(red) ens starting to push the blocking from the SW towards the UK(center of circle),i have drawn a black arrow as to where i hope that this direction of travel will be in the next few days

and finally the CFSv2 still are churning out good northern blocking for next month...

 

 

And there’s still hope

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This one?

Not great are they.

[Uncertainty]

19 minutes ago, Don said:

If the MJO wave moves through 6-7-8 could that be a good sign the Nina signal is being overridden as there have been reservations for the MJO forecast accuracy this winter due to La Nina?

I think the amplitude matters too Don, the Nina imprint might weaken it so it’s not strong enough to really shake things up in the NA sector, 2018 had a record breaking phase 6/7 push that IMHO was as big a driver for the blocking as the split in the strat was. 
As I say if the reversal + a >1 amplitude MjO 6/7 wave verifies then the 18z is a good manifestation of the probability space. Big if mind, especially as you say the Nina factor which Marco himself is still referencing...

Edited January 21, 2021 by Uncertainy