Model output discussion - into the last third of January

[MATTWOLVES 3]

A few positives here. @Tamara you have an Heatwave on the way in Portugal..Sorry I can't find another one. Walks away with his head held hi...EC46 to come and hopeful of a turnaround come the Weekend..Hell these charts don't even match the Exeter way of thinking...somethings gonna give. 

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM keeping the dream alive for a bit of snow for much of England & Wales on Sunday 

Good test for GFS vs ECM at 72hrs  with the latter showing the front and the GFS very dry.

[topo]

Promising day 10...

Ooops this is the 100th time this winter 

[Ice Day]

Day 10 looks good 

That was one hell of a moribund run!

 

[MJB]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Day 10 looks good 

That was one hell of a moribund run!

 

Wasn't the best was it 

[Vikos]

Have to, sorry

This beaufort sea ridge caught my eye. Is this the atempt for a split?

[sebastiaan1973]

9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Day 10 looks good 

That was one hell of a moribund run!

 

Perhaps a repetitve writing of me. But nature is so stubborn to blow the cold air to the Norwegian Sea, preventing rising of pressure, feeding low pressure. The Arctic High is not positioned well. It doesn't seem intrested to give us some purple shivers. The cold in Siberia is impressive. All winter the AO is negative.

[nick sussex]

Good overall agreement in the pattern for the next ten days but quite a lot of detail still to iron out.

Two main points of uncertainty , one at day 3 and the other day 5 into 6 .

Day 3 ,  a band of snow possible crossing from the west or a shortwave running se as per the UKMO . This of course will make a difference to who gets any snow.

Day 5 into 6 .

The UKMO looks least interested in any snow as fronts move in from the Atlantic as you can see its day 4 throws a shortwave east but instead of disrupting cleanly it then becomes absorbed into the main trough which makes the day 5 angle of attack less favourable. It’s persisted with this shortwave for several runs whilst neither the ECM or GFS are interested .

Day 7 into 9 

The Azores high looks like winning this as it noses ne bringing some milder conditions with one caveat here the cold air still remains close to the north so that area has a bit more uncertainty .

Day 10 onwards 

The Azores high looks like getting flattened , with signs of it then displacing further west .

Looking at the potential from there , for coldies I think it would be look ne if anything is to develop more favourably .

The build of pressure into the Arctic from the Pacific building towards the Svalbard area would help push the Euro troughing further south opening up something from the ne .

That’s not too much of a leap of faith given the overall trends around that day ten mark .

Something to keep an eye on if those day ten charts count down .

Edited January 21, 2021 by nick sussex

[chris55]

20 minutes ago, DCee said:

Good test for GFS vs ECM at 72hrs  with the latter showing the front and the GFS very dry.

Maybe the regionals are the place for this type of chat, but GFS isn't very dry? It depends where you live

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Good summary as always @nick sussex  so it looks like playing the waiting game...things may start to develop a bit further down the road...perhaps CFS is picking up on this,or sending us to the samaritans hot line again.

Model fatigue for me setting in,the CFS update proves the point..catch you all in a few days time..stay virus free,the only virus I want to see is one being installed into the NWP computers, then we could reset them all and start again..

 

[Froze were the Days]

That D10 on the ecm 12z hasn't progressed from yesterdays 12z tease at day10 has it?...they never get any closer but that's the only interesting point I can see on the ecm of the last day or so runs.

[Chesil View]

31 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good overall agreement in the pattern for the next ten days but quite a lot of detail still to iron out.

Two main points of uncertainty , one at day 3 and the other day 5 into 6 .

Day 3 ,  a band of snow possible crossing from the west or a shortwave running se as per the UKMO . This of course will make a difference to who gets any snow.

Day 5 into 6 .

The UKMO looks least interested in any snow as fronts move in from the Atlantic as you can see its day 4 throws a shortwave east but instead of disrupting cleanly it then becomes absorbed into the main trough which makes the day 5 angle of attack less favourable. It’s persisted with this shortwave for several runs whilst neither the ECM or GFS are interested .

Day 7 into 9 

The Azores high looks like winning this as it noses ne bringing some milder conditions with one caveat here the cold air still remains close to the north so that area has a bit more uncertainty .

Day 10 onwards 

The Azores high looks like getting flattened , with signs of it then displacing further west .

Looking at the potential from there , for coldies I think it would be look ne if anything is to develop more favourably .

The build of pressure into the Arctic from the Pacific building towards the Svalbard area would help push the Euro troughing further south opening up something from the ne .

That’s not too much of a leap of faith given the overall trends around that day ten mark .

Something to keep an eye on if those day ten charts count down .

That's a very good summing up Nick. It really is a waiting game at the moment once we get the next three days out of the way.

Certainly living near the south coast of England Winter patience is a virtue I have had to acquire  through my weather watching life.

I'm reasonably happy given the known situation with the ECM tonight in the extended, its not a million miles away from the gfs at that range and both models  have the feel of something that could go on to deliver something from our north east for the period early to mid feb.  

We await to see what unfolds and patience is the key.

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Broadmayne blizzard

[mulzy]

Green shoots of recovery deep into the extended EPS mean.  We lose the very stubborn heights over Iberia with heights rising once again to the north and north west.  An area of low heights exists over the UK extending east.  Clusters will reveal more but early February shows promise.

[chris55]

Im quite enjoying the EC tonight. Just look at the variation between now and day 10! Certainly not boring.

72 snow for the south

120 Leading edge snowfall

168, mild waft...

216 absolutely balmy! You'll notice that going out in the morning.

and finally 240 the colder air returns, chilly.

Moving forward, beyond day 10 and it looks like that colder air could well push back in from the north east with an easterly setting up...........this bit is open to debate lol

Everything thrown in.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by chris55

[Griff]

2 hours ago, Griff said:

Wait to see if this evening's ecm zonal wind chart supports the GFS's forecast negative dip at the beginning of February. I reckon it will. 

 

@MATTWOLVES looks zero if not a bit below

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Green shoots of recovery deep into the extended EPS mean.  We lose the very stubborn heights over Iberia with heights rising once again to the north and north west.  An area of low heights exists over the UK extending east.  Clusters will reveal more but early February shows promise.

Yes, clusters do suggest an improvement but we’ve uncertainty to get through before then.  

ECM clusters T192-T240 6 clusters:

T264-T360 4 clusters:

With the earlier set there is blocking to the north but too far and doesn’t benefit the UK from a cold perspective, the later set hint at bringing blocking to the regions where it might actually benefit the UK, note only one of the 12 charts has a blue +NAO border, 8 have green -NAO borders.  Hardly worth pointing out there is no raging Atlantic zonal weather in any of this.  

But we are into February by this point.  2 months off winter gone with nowt for many, the chase goes into the final third...and then into extra time (March has delivered twice in the last decade).  Not ruling out a penalty shoot out in April!

Edited January 21, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Froze were the Days]

8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

72 snow for the south

120 Leading edge snowfall

Sure about that?...snow for the south at 72z, not according to my regional thread, at best a wintry mix, 120z strikes me maybe as transitional frontal snow if you live in elevated areas to the north i.e. Pennines, Peak District, Scottish Hills etc.

[Matt H]

Some interesting news from Marco this evening!

Link: https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1352345781584461824?s=21

Edited January 21, 2021 by Frosty Winter

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sure about that?...snow for the south at 72z, not according to my regional thread, at best a wintry mix, 120z strikes me maybe as transitional frontal snow if you live in elevated areas to the north i.e. Pennines, Peak District, Scottish Hills etc.

Yep...not sure what your regional thread says,  but the ECM says this..

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, clusters do suggest an improvement but we’ve uncertainty to get through before then.  

ECM clusters T192-T240 6 clusters:

T264-T360 4 clusters:

With the earlier set there is blocking to the north but too far and doesn’t benefit the UK from a cold perspective, the later set hint at bringing blocking to the regions where it might actually benefit the UK.  Hardly worth pointing out there is no raging Atlantic zonal weather in any of this.  

But we are into February by this point.  2 months off winter gone with nowt for many, the chase goes into the final third...and then into extra time (March has delivered twice in the last decade).  Not ruling out a penalty shoot out in April!

A small but persistent cluster trying to get something going via a ridge to our NE. I went through the individual ensembles, perhaps as many as 30% with some sort of ridge activity NE or E, maybe half of them managing to get cold towards the UK. 

Overall, though, the pattern remains close to going cold but not quite managing it.

[chris55]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

Sure about that?...snow for the south at 72z, not according to my regional thread, at best a wintry mix, 120z strikes me maybe as transitional frontal snow if you live in elevated areas to the north i.e. Pennines, Peak District, Scottish Hills etc.

I didn't say snow in the Essex Riviera? I said snow in the south.

And I said leading edge snowfall? It will be followed by rain, hence leading edge.

Just describing the run.......sorry if you don't agree.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Some interesting news from Marco this evening!

Link: https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1352345781584461824?s=21

 

You beat me to it mate.. and got me out of a few days break...just thought I would have a gander at Marco on twitter and   Guys this is fab news and potentially gives us another decent shot of a proper cold spell.. Could we be looking at the Beast from the East take 2..and at similar time frames...yippee 

[Froze were the Days]

19 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Yep...not sure what your regional thread says,  but the ECM says this..

Paul Sherman was just talking about this and how poor the ECM has been for verifying snow position in the south east this winter 0 out of 6! show me that chart at 24 hours out and maybe we've got a chance.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[Froze were the Days]

14 minutes ago, chris55 said:

I didn't say snow in the Essex Riviera? I said snow in the south.

Well going by the modelling that ECM modelling above shows at roughly 72z 'snow' (taking with a pinch of salt currently) working it's way from southern central areas to the south east, so you're saying central areas but not the south east? and leading edge snow to the north at 120z! Is it January or April?, nothing unusual there and I think you're interpreting it at 120z rather than describing it...a difference.

 

Edited January 21, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[stodge]

Evening all

After all the drama with Christoph which even in lowland East London produced an impressive squall line late in the evening and, after a fine but breezy day day, has produced more rain this evening, we go back to the medium and longer term prospects.

Both GEM and JMA teased yesterday evening with a mild spell quickly cut short but GFS in particular was solid on an Atlantic-influenced scenario in the medium term while ECM's well-documented T+216 and T+240 tantrums frustrate in extremis.

A milder spell next week looks certain especially for the southern and western half of Britain but as we head into February, are there genuine signs of a new pattern change to put the cold fans back into the game?

12Z GEM: T+120 takes us to Tuesday January 26th. By then, a ridge of HP is crossing from west to east with the remnants of Christoph over Norway and an LP over eastern Europe. Upstream, a weak ridge extends SE from heights over Greenland but a large positively-aligned trough dominates mid-Atlantic. SW'ly winds are crossing the British Isles but uppers remain below -4 for most parts though milder air is inexorably closing in from the south west.  From here, the LP throws lobes of energy towards the British Isles but these disrupt over central parts and slide east toward Denmark.  Heights persist over Iberia, Greenland and to the far north-east with a new LP developing in mid-Atlantic as part of the complex trough. Milder air has crossed all parts of the British Isles by T+180 with positive uppers as a ridge again moves west to east across southern areas. Not much change to the overall pattern from T+180 to T+240 - the long fetch SW'ly persists with heights anchored over or close to Iberia. Atlantic systems move round the top of this HP system and down into Scandinavia so we get an occasional PM incursion. Just a hint of heights coming down from the north at T+240. Mostly mild or very mild throughout with just a slight cooling in the PM airflow.

 

Desperate stuff for cold fans from GEM after last evening's promise.

12Z GFS OP - the OP has been mild for the last few days. It's different from GEM at T+120 with a clear phasing of the Atlantic and residual post-Christoph troughs with a new storm over the Baltic States. A new lobe of trough energy extends east into Ireland suppressing the attempted ridge to the south. Milder air with positive uppers is into southern and western areas while the north and east remains cold with uppers below -4.  Onwards and the pattern becomes established with heights over Iberia and mild TM air moving across Europe. Small LP break off from the main mid-Atlantic trough and move east across the British Isles as heights try to form over Scandinavia. The controlling Atlantic LP is further north on GFS than GEM but extends south allowing new LP to form in its circulation as the colder and warmer airmasses meet. It is mild or very mild across the British Isles by T+180 with +8 uppers close by to southern parts.  From there, changes start occurring - the heights over Iberia are broken down by T+192 as a new HP comes out of North America in advance of a major LP also moving off the eastern seaboard. As heights relax to the south, the original Atlantic trough can move east and south across the British Isles into NW Europe as the HP re-positions to the Azores and re-orients the ridge to the north-west. A cyclonic flow covers the British Isles by T+240 and pushed the mild air to the south with negative uppers across all parts. 

OP certainly cuts the mild spell short by moving the trough down and allowing the Iberian HP to relax west and north.

With no Parallel tonight, I'm moving to Control for my third chart fix. As you might expect, very similar to OP at T+120. On to T+180 and differences remain subtle to be honest. The Atlantic LP is shallower on Control than OP and there's a defined secondary LP crossing just to the north of Scotland at this time. Generally mild for most parts with uppers around or just above zero for all parts. From there, the evolution is similar to OP with a new Atlantic LP from lower latitudes forcing a slight re-orientation of the HP away from Iberia and allowing the original trough to move east just to the north of the British Isles. Colder air is moving back over the British Isles by T+240 from the west.

Both OP and Control have this synoptic change - it's hardly a Pattern change, more a subtle shift - by T+240.

12Z ECM: I suspect, like GEM, this will be firmly in the mild camp. Indeed, the T+120 looks very close to the GEM with the milder air flow already moving in across the British Isles from the south west. By T+192 not much has changed. Small secondary LP have crossed the British Isles but mild or very mild TM air flows round the top of the HP over Iberia. Indeed, there is +16 air approaching from the south west which would seem more appropriate to late spring than late January.  However, our new "friend", the lower latitude LP shows up on ECM and that starts to push the trough east across the British Isles and by T+240 there's a run of fresh to strong W@ly winds across southern parts as the HP has relaxed slightly west. Cooler air with uppers of just below zero has covered the British Isles by T+240.

Moving further ahead, GFS OP and Control at T+312 and T+384 respectively:

Control drops the PV into the north Atlantic at T+384 but OP is more interesting in that the PV comes back over but relaxes a notch further west in far FI and that facilitates a ridge across the Pole by far FI. All this suggests no strong signal to this observer at this stage.

Conclusion: The mild team have clearly won this round of the winter war - it will turn milder by the middle of next week and it doesn't look as though there's a quick and obvious way back to cold for 7-10 days. Rainfall totals have eased a little as well so it won't be too bad most of the time. GFS and ECM however hint at changes to the pattern fairly quickly with the Iberian HP relaxing and re-orienting as a new HP/LP combination emerge out of North America. This will cause the Atlantic trough to start heading east and perhaps south east into north-west Europe by T+240 bringing a new period of stormy and unsettled weather. OP then teases with some amplification as explained above while Control gains a surge of Atlantic energy as the PV moves south. As is so often the case, cold fans are going to have to wait for teleconnection changes or SSW changes to manifest themselves perhaps as we move into February.