Model output discussion 24/01/21

[MJB]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

The trend is very similar on EC from 00z to 12z. Arctic profile and general direction of travel the same. Yes we don't have a direct hit, but that wouldn't mean anything other than excess posts in here lol. 

Overall trend the same. A shortwave here, a ridge there, these are important factors for the UK locale, but are not accurately forecastable at dat 7-8-9-10.

00z

12z

Exactly , the theme is exactly the same and we were all clapping our hands at the 0z ECM , nothing has changed at all this evening 

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

That we can agree on!  There are aspects of this we can agree on, maybe although not sure, the engagement of the arctic high with what’s going on on our side is a plus.  First time we’ve seen that in a meaningful way.  The run is at the edges of the envelope of others in the 12z suite so I expect it is an outlier.  I don’t see that it changes the chances in the next two weeks one iota, so I don’t understand the toy throwing.

Indeed, and as ropey a run as it first appeared, if that cold pool moved across days 11 plus (which given the evolution was looking likely), it would bring cold the like of which many of us have never experienced!

So, if that's as bad as it gets, yes please.  Still think it will be an outlier though!

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Seriously? have you not learnt by the last episode as I mentioned above?, just because the GFS comes out with some near stella runs doesn't mean it's correct...GFS initially sniffs out a trend it goes over the top in my opinion, who knows might be right. As Northwestsnow mentions nothing is straight forward in regards to cold!

But ECM always seems to make a meal of everything, its worse than gfs if you ask me,consistently wise,Gfs seems more consistent  even if it does turn out to have been consistently wrong in the end lol.

Getting deep cold into uk even if you have a great NH profile is still excruciatingly difficult and frustrating.

 

[BlackburnChris]

I can't see the ECM turning out Mild , look at all that blocking to the North , Any low coming against it will disrupt .. 

[Anthony Burden]

Still lots of change to come ECM although confusing will with out doubt change nearer to the

time northern blocking becomes established the more important issue northern blocking showing

on all charts.Let’s be patient charts will chop and change untill we get within 72 hrs/ 96 hrs as mentioned 

in my last blog keep an eye on ensembles for continued-10 850hpa.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

I can't see the ECM turning out Mild , look at all that blocking to the North , Any low coming against it will disrupt .. 

The low can't disrupt, it's stuck out in the N Atlantic spinning around on itself with little forcing.

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

If we do get to that at 240h I can only see it go one way and probability says ending in a mild southerly...

With pressure rising over Scandinavia, a low in the Mediterranean, not far from Genoa?
I doubt it, perhaps for a very short time as that low comes along, but I can still see the Northeasterly coming after 240h.

Then again, as you say, IF we get to that 240h, but we won't see this evolution in reality. It was a strange run.

[Nick F]

All i can say about the EC, as I mentioned this morning, is it shows the dangers of the Iberian / western Med low that cuts off from the upper westerlies over NW Europe to bring very little of impetus to back the cold out of NE Europe. Maybe a mild outlier. But never plain sailing to get deep cold nirvana these days, we have to go through this torment of one model saying no, while another carries on bringing promise, with no knowing which will be more correct. More runs needed ....

Edited January 28, 2021 by Nick F

[ICE COLD]

Gem 12z updated 

[Alexis]

Models did a 180 yesterday and people are getting hung up on the details! All we need is for variations on the theme to keep churning out over the next few days. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter Night said:

With pressure rising over Scandinavia, a low in the Mediterranean, not far from Genoa?
I doubt it, perhaps for a very short time as that low comes along, but I can still see the Northeasterly coming after 240h.

Then again, as you say, IF we get to that 240h, but we won't see this evolution in reality. It was a strange run.

Yep, that’s the point this run won’t come off, so it is pointless worrying about what would happen.  And yet we do, and it seems to me opinion split 50/50 on whether the post T240 evolution would be Narnia or a Spanish plume!  I plumped for Narnia!

[ICE COLD]

Closer look at the 850s on the gem . Better than the ECM . The high just needs to be further north for longer lasting cold . 

[Chesil View]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Gem 12z updated 

And what s stunner it is.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

And what s stunner it is.

Yes can't knock that. 

 

[Jason H]

People getting hung up on the operational again. Look at the overall picture. That ECM operational is a variation on the theme and whilst not delivering Narnia, it's still pointing to a cold outcome. "The best of winter is over" opined one poster? Brave call.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Jason H

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Don't take every run to heart. The trend is still there so I'm OK with the ECM at day 10.yes day 10

[chris55]

Looking at day 8-10 on EC, we can see the shortwave at the tip of Greenland at day 8 develop and pull WEST, with high pressure developing to the north. (its a fly in the ointment but not a spoiler IMO.)

Basically the flow is heading negative with the Arctic ridge, Atlantic ridge and developing Greenland ridge and zero forcing from the Atlantic, plus the huge cold pool to the east. Only one way it would go and that's cold.

192

240

[ICE COLD]

GEFS have some Beauty of  flat liners in there , but there is some terrible ones in there too . Looks very uncertain , but when is it ever plain sailing getting decent cold to are shores . 

[Allseasons-Si]

NAVGEM,.....

 

 

[joggs]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM is an entirely feasible run. Not suggesting likely, but feasible nonetheless. 

My own thoughts? I think we've seen the best of winter now and I'm not particularly convinced by this potential Feb cold spell. Looks to be one too many hurdles to overcome once again. Would be delighted to be wrong however! 

I get what you are saying Crewe. The last cold spell the ECM wobbled about more than the others imo. All routes point to cold and I'm opposite your thinking re, best of winter behind us.  We'll see. Certainly beats a rip roaring jet slamming mild mush at us.

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Looking at day 8-10 on EC, we can see the shortwave at the tip of Greenland at day 8 develop and pull WEST, with high pressure developing to the north. (its a fly in the ointment but not a spoiler IMO.)

Basically the flow is heading negative with the Arctic ridge, Atlantic ridge and developing Greenland ridge and zero forcing from the Atlantic, plus the huge cold pool to the east. Only one way it would go and that's cold.

192

240

Yes quite, thanks, I see it the same way, Chris, the way some have reacted this chart could have been showing a Bartlett

My final word on the ECM op - although milder in the middle of the run, it could lead to the jackpot - the whole cold lot coming from the NE, not big chance but it is there.

Edited January 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[tight isobar]

Ecm12z..less said the better...however it's evolutionary is bordering ridiculous!!... I'm going to pretend I never even viewed it.....@non worthy imo.

Edited January 28, 2021 by tight isobar

[mulzy]

Medium range EPS (days 8-12) colder than this morning.  We may get a west based negative NAO in the outer reaches but the medium term has certainly improved.

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Jason H said:

People getting hung up on the operational again. Look at the overall picture. That ECM operational is a variation on the theme and whilst not delivering Narnia, it's still pointing to a cold outcome. "The best of winter is over" opined one poster? Brave call.

Some of us down south haven’t seen winter yet seems very IMBY post. Anyway does appear ECM op was a mild outlier.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Some truly incredible runs showing their hands again. This time round though, we have got snow in the near forecast, and these runs are evolving almost off the back of it. 

February could be a special month indeed. Today it had that weird mild feel to things, almost like a lull before something big around the corner. Same thing happened before the Beast from the East.