Model output discussion 24/01/21

[northwestsnow]

To be honest I'm not sure EC will be as much an outlier as we hope.

I wasn't convinced by ukmo this morning or this evening and EC looks more ukmo than Gfs to me...

[That ECM]

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

Just gone through the GEFS , some superb runs on the table for sure 

At the end of the day it's the ensembles from the GFS, always worry if the ECM isn't onboard...and 8 or 9 times out of 10 it will be the GFS with the eye watering runs, remember the last episode with the Greenland High? Early days on this though.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

I’m not really sure what the objection to this is?  The high in combination with the arctic high could bring the lot from the NE?  Is it more that people can see things going wrong with this than the actual evolution?

Edited January 28, 2021 by Mike Poole

[joggs]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I looked at this and looked again and again... and frankly I simply don’t know if it’s good or bad..

realky unique setup.

with ecm and the 24 jumps it could a case of boom! Or drat.. no easing in gentle just f5 refresh and bang and cop that!

It wint be like that come the dates. Just glad of the arctic high and our high link up.

[ICE COLD]

Thanks but no thanks ECM . 

[Captain Shortwave]

Rather unconvinced of both the ECM and JMA, the pattern in the Atlantic simply stalls without any real forcing going on. It is rare enough to see a sharp trough extending into Africa during the summer, let alone winter.

[SLEETY]

Garbage ecm run,probably be correct knowing our luck,I hate this model so inconsistent 

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM is an entirely feasible run. Not suggesting likely, but feasible nonetheless. 

My own thoughts? I think we've seen the best of winter now and I'm not particularly convinced by this potential Feb cold spell. Looks to be one too many hurdles to overcome once again. Would be delighted to be wrong however! 

[Cold Winter Night]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Goodness me nothing is straightforward...

I did caution this morning about Euro heights...

Might make it at day 9 ...

It's not so much the Euro heights that are a problem. You need a robust high to the North. A high that is reinforced by solid WAA in the West and CAA on the East/Southeastern side.
Once you have that, it will drain the Euro heights.

In the 144h -168h timeframe, that WAA is a weak for that first Atlantic ridge, so the High doesn't get inflated much.
The second attempt is  a bit better, but I agree, lets hope the output will improve. It changes enough over 24h to see many improvements.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

I’m not really sure what the objection to this is?  The high in combination with the arctic high could bring the lot from the NE?  Is it more that people can see things going wrong with this than the actual evolution?

I was going to post the same thing, but wasn't sure what happens next, would suggest a promising outcome...

[nick sussex]

My final word on the ECM .

This run was delivered by Satan himself , we need to call an Exorcist ! 

Anyway folks the ECM manages to find the route to nowhere , takes a great NH pattern and turns it into a horror show of frustration for coldies .

The positive is it takes a lot to manage to come up with this cold avoidance route so let’s hope for a change in the morning .

Edited January 28, 2021 by nick sussex

[Ice Day]

What a strange run that was.  Looked OK until 144 then went a bit berserk!  I'm by no means saying that a cold spell is 'nailed on', but I'd wager plenty of money that 13:00hrs on Sunday 7th February doesn't look like this!

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Garbage ecm run,probably be correct knowing our luck,I hate this model so inconsistent 

Seriously? have you not learnt by the last episode as I mentioned above?, just because the GFS comes out with some near stella runs doesn't mean it's correct...GFS initially sniffs out a trend it goes over the top in my opinion, who knows might be right. As Northwestsnow mentions nothing is straight forward in regards to cold!

[MJB]

5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

At the end of the day it's the ensembles from the GFS, always worry if the ECM isn't onboard...and 8 or 9 times out of 10 it will be the GFS with the eye watering runs, remember the last episode with the Greenland High? Early days on this though.

I'm sorry but I'm not having that , the ENS are good to look at certainties or uncertainties , reading your post you are saying if ECM isn't showing it , then it's not right?

[Scandinavian High.]

I wouldn’t worry to much 10 days out the weekend isn’t nailed on yet you no ecm will be different in morning

Edited January 28, 2021 by Scandinavian High.

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

I’m not really sure what the objection to this is?  The high in combination with the arctic high could bring the lot from the NE?  Is it more that people can see things going wrong with this than the actual evolution?

Well the run up to 240h looks very messy and complicated on the EC Op, so you can't blame anyone for getting nervous, but I do think the output shows that there are many ways to get to that pot of gold.

+240h is very decent IMO.

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM is an entirely feasible run. Not suggesting likely, but feasible nonetheless. 

My own thoughts? I think we've seen the best of winter now and I'm not particularly convinced by this potential Feb cold spell. Looks to be one too many hurdles to overcome once again. Would be delighted to be wrong however! 

Well yesterday's BBC monthly forecast was an upgrade and seemed confident of cold weather as we progress through February - I would be thrilled if you are wrong 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Ice Day said:

What a strange run that was.  Looked OK until 144 then went a bit berserk!  I'm by no means saying that a cold spell is 'nailed on', but I'd wager plenty of money that 13:00hrs on Sunday 7th February doesn't look like this!

That we can agree on!  There are aspects of this we can agree on, maybe although not sure, the engagement of the arctic high with what’s going on on our side is a plus.  First time we’ve seen that in a meaningful way.  The run is at the edges of the envelope of others in the 12z suite so I expect it is an outlier.  I don’t see that it changes the chances in the next two weeks one iota, so I don’t understand the toy throwing.

[Daniel*]

ECM is cr@p but we would be awfully unlucky to go mild from there, the positioning of blocking to NE-NW couldn't position it much better to help advect the cold our way. There’s certainly no west -NAO.

[Troubleatmill]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

To be honest I'm not sure EC will be as much an outlier as we hope.

I wasn't convinced by ukmo this morning or this evening and EC looks more ukmo than Gfs to me...

I agree Northwestsnow, ignore it at our peril. It will change won't it, none have it nailed yet, but as it's there Infront of us it must be a possible outcome.

 

[Froze were the Days]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

+240h is very decent IMO.

If we do get to that at 240h I can only see it go one way and probability says ending in a mild southerly...

[chris55]

The trend is very similar on EC from 00z to 12z. Arctic profile and general direction of travel the same. Yes we don't have a direct hit, but that wouldn't mean anything other than excess posts in here lol. 

Overall trend the same. A shortwave here, a ridge there, these are important factors for the UK locale, but are not accurately forecastable at dat 7-8-9-10.

00z

12z

[Vikos]

 

I like that EC

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, MJB said:

I'm sorry but I'm not having that , the ENS are good to look at certainties or uncertainties , reading your post you are saying if ECM isn't showing it , then it's not right?

Remember the last episode with the GH back before mid-January, a collapse by it's GFS ensembles and finally the op run to bring in any meaningful cold...gotta have the ECM onside, it might be a rogue outlier by the ECM we wait with baited!