Model output discussion 24/01/21

[Man With Beard]

16 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Bit of a change in the GEFS mean - still fairly high pressure over Scandi but it looks as if the Arctic High is photobombing. Get this right and there'll be a polar flow - get it wrong and I think it's likely to go cold from the east for a least a time anyway.

[Frostbite1980]

23 minutes ago, Notty said:

It is almost like 'all roads lead to Rome' at the moment

I have heard that before

[Anthony Burden]

Stratospheric polar vortex under pressure again according to Marco Patanga,could encourage northern 

blocking,we wait in anticipation of a very cold wintery February.Keep an eye on ensembles for 

several days of -10c 850hpa. will wait for ECM chart before discussing all scenarios today.

 

 

[ICE COLD]

18 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Wow the mean is even better than this morning .

[Allseasons-Si]

Closed off Greeny high from day ten on the mean

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

A tad above average.but I guess actual temperature has to be lower than at Christmas time.. 

Is there a way we can find out say end of December temperature and end of January.  A degree or so drop us not too much to ask for

 

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

A tad above average.but I guess actual temperature has to be lower than at Christmas time.. 

Is there a way we can find out say end of December temperature and end of January.  A degree or so drop us not too much to ask for

These are North Sea temps for last week.

From

Buienradar.nl - Zeewatertemperatuur rondom Nederland en Europa

WWW.BUIENRADAR.NL

---

Bekijk de actuele zeewatertemperaturen rondom Nederland en Europa

 

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

 

These are North Sea temps for last week.

From

Buienradar.nl - Zeewatertemperatuur rondom Nederland en Europa

WWW.BUIENRADAR.NL

---

Bekijk de actuele zeewatertemperaturen rondom Nederland en Europa

 

And ECM models them too, the control that is.

ECMWF | Charts

APPS.ECMWF.INT

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

34 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Oh the joy of working long hours and missing a days output. Just had a little nosey  - some great and improving ensembles throughout the day.

I guess a blocking episode is fairly likely now - whether or not the orientation or position is in our favour remains to be seen.

Hopefully this will continue and peak at the 18Z when I can view a run!

Be thankful Ed for work in these times, No furlough, no work or wages since Aug last year (eating into my reserves!) and I’m like Jimmy Stewart in the ‘Rear Window’.  Driving my wife mad .

It’s holding firm at the moment...if not the exact route.  18z will be just for you....super mild

 

BFTP

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Bit of a change in the GEFS mean - still fairly high pressure over Scandi but it looks as if the Arctic High is photobombing. Get this right and there'll be a polar flow - get it wrong and I think it's likely to go cold from the east for a least a time anyway.

Yes, the artic high is a noticeable change and as many have said it’s difficult to model. We will see in future output what happens. As Nick said it’s not always good but I’d rather have it than not. Much detail to be seen but it’s all heading in an interesting way.

[Griff]

Gem 24... OK I jest, anyone have the run in full yet? 

[Bradley in Kent]

Good evening all, hope this month has been treating people well circumstances considered... Just a quick side note from me RE warm sea temps:

Deep in FI I know, the earlier GFS run had those uppers over the North Sea in the -10c to -15c band.

Imagine though, just imagine if you had -15c uppers over 8c water with a moderate wind NEE curving to NNE, how tasty that would be! A lot of bubbling, rumbling and dumping would ensue!

[nick sussex]

Some pretty amazing looking NH charts showing up but at the end of the day a block is only as good as the weather it delivers on the ground to coldies .

Sometimes it’s better to have that smaller block well positioned than a huge block .

The cross polar flow does look impressive but the main thing is to get the cold pool and any high set up in a way to direct that cleanly sw into the UK.

In the shorter term the fax charts for day 2 and 3 still haven’t updated . I wonder if they’re waiting to process the ECM data given the uncertainty .

Edited January 28, 2021 by nick sussex

[Mark wheeler]

Shift south on Harmonie rain to a sleet & snow mix further south and east . 

[Cloud 10]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Gem 24... OK I jest, anyone have the run in full yet? 

Out to 60hrs on the german site,but obviously data problems.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gem&var=1&run=12&time=60&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=12#mapref

[Battleground Snow]

7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Gem 24... OK I jest, anyone have the run in full yet? 

As far as I can get @Griff. 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Phil Blake]

43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is the North Sea above average now Phil ?

actually I checked and it is a little but not hugely ....was worse a month ago 

Temps are between 6 and 8c currently so still above average. We had pure rain (not even sleet) with 850s of -7 -8 during a similar synoptic not so long ago. 

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

As far as I can get @Griff. 

 

Oh dear, different format and I've lost the uk...

[Bricriu]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some pretty amazing looking NH charts showing up but at the end of the day a block is only as good as the weather it delivers on the ground to coldies .

Sometimes it’s better to have that smaller block well positioned than a huge block .

The cross polar flow does look impressive but the main thing is to get the cold pool and any high set up in a way to direct that cleanly sw into the UK .

It would be just cruel if this were achieved for the second time in the NH profile and we somehow missed out, but like you say it can't be discounted.

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Oh dear, different format and I've lost the uk...

I’m find it is better to stick with your model viewing platform of choice be that meteociel (my choice), netweather, wetterzentrale or whatever.  It pays dividends over time as you begin to learn what the colours mean almost without noticing. 

ECM prime time - is in the lockdown anyway.  I said yesterday i thought the 0zs today would be an upgrade, and if the signal holds with the ECM and ensembles, then we are looking at firming up the details in future runs, I think a cold spell is now most likely, the difference between an epic spell and a week or two of below average temperature is what’s at stake.  

[Mike Poole]

ECM further north with the cold T48 than some of the high res models, they were wrong last time, but this is a different setup, and would expect  higher resolution to be helpful with the system running into cold air that might be more resistive:

[Tim Bland]

ECM snow depth for the weekend...

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

ECM snow depth for the weekend...

That’s further south than I thought Tim, given the uppers chart I posted above, some of that will have settled with uppers of only -2C.

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM further north with the cold T48 than some of the high res models, they were wrong last time, but this is a different setup, and would expect  higher resolution to be helpful with the system running into cold air that might be more resistive:

Its going to be a tricky forecast, but a really important one, a hundred miles either way and local impacts are very different! Also considering the front will stall and then pull back south. I feel sorry for the pro forecasters. Unless there is a clear trend north or south I think its pretty much a nowcast if your location is somewhere in the middle.

 

 

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM snow depth for the weekend...

Cotswolds and higher ground in Wales looking good. But as I said above, tricky forecast.

[Ali1977]

FI on the GFS as some mental Temp anomalies, the Arctic very warm but look at that cold in the west of North America - Brutal through the rockies with daytime temps around -30 in many places

 

Lunchtime temps in Calgary of -36 ish

Edited January 28, 2021 by Ali1977