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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, Don said:

Oh gawd, we haven't got to go through this all again have we?!  On a more serious note, still plenty of opportunities following next week's spell even if it does become temporarily less cold.

We love all this drama ! It’s compulsive viewing . I think the phrase “ the situation is fluid “ would be apt .

 

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

You never know! Gfs may back track tonight  pub run special! Seems to always back track when ECM is on board with it. 

Not sure the ECM is completely on board with it, but I get what you mean.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

We love all this drama ! It’s compulsive viewing . I think the phrase “ the situation is fluid “ would be apt .

 

Lol, defo a love/hate relationship with this model viewing but it can be worth it in the end!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Haha that made me lol ...!!

I can't wait to sit in the regional thread with the radar open watching as a blob closes in on us.

Anyway, EURO 4 starting to come into range of Saturday evening snow showers already spreading south.

image.thumb.png.b1e27cd239884023e68aa1c34946730e.png

 

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MJB Accomplished

MJB

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
Just now, Snowman. said:

I can't wait to sit in the regional thread with the radar open watching as a blob closes in on us.

Anyway, EURO 4 starting to come into range of Saturday evening snow showers already spreading south.

image.thumb.png.b1e27cd239884023e68aa1c34946730e.png

 

Looks quite fragmented , unlike the week ahead forecast from SKL . 

Going to be interesting looking out Sunday morning lol 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Banning charts past day 7/8 would be nice too. What a relaxing place this would be!

Would be relaxing because there would be almost no one here for a majority of the winter 

This winter tbf has dangled that carrot since mid december very different to winters where you could go 2 weeks without coming here.

Potential for some decent falls this Sunday/Monday NE EA looking to be the place to be. But these things usually go south so who knows.

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ANYWEATHER Maestro

ANYWEATHER

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
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Posted

There are really two frustrating and iritating issues on here tonight....firstly Deep cold is coming in so how can anyone assume that the end of the severe cold will fold up in just a few days computer models always struggle with this And forecasting snowfall is impossible ...Answer ...Put a Piece of See weed outside your door ....!

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
Posted

No breakdown on tonight's ECM  stays cold Midlands northwards throughout and don't be fooled by the yellow colours at 240 hours, the surface air would be about as warm as a polar bears packed lunch.

Andy

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

I remember the days where the GFS rolled out normally and you could bet your house on a 10:45 finish. 

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted
4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's starting to become a bit flimsy, but it's still enough and the low looks less rounded in the Atlantic

I mean it's the ICON, we only observe it because it comes out first 

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Severe Siberian icy blast Experienced

Severe Siberian icy blast

Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
Posted
2 hours ago, Jason M said:

Looking at the set up next week don't be surprised if the lows end up over France missing all but the SW. It just looks rife for pressure to rise over Scandinavia. 

I agree here, I think we're about to a second rising of another high pressure somewhere between scandi and Iceland. Looking at the northern hemi tonight im expecting one to show its face next wk. 

I should be very dubious into believing anything that blows the cold away 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
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Posted
30 minutes ago, Don said:

Surely 4 days out is FI for snow charts?!

When it comes to the most difficult precipitation to predict.. in meteorology.. and in a maritime island .. 24 hrs out is mostly still iffy/tricky.. I honestly do not get why people hype.. or sulk about em..@ outta  range!!!!

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Popular Post
Posted

GFS much better for Sunday for the SE:

anim_jik0.gif

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
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Posted

Colder air much better in the SE this run.

The 12z toys throwing seems like a distant nightmare.

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
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Posted
Just now, Mike Poole said:

Whatever else befalls us on this run, please can we bank this at T84:

183E60DF-2F15-498B-AC48-1174760914A5.thumb.png.d6258f9f65a011bdf44b99847eef6015.png985FA448-7532-48D8-9981-AA404F437268.thumb.png.9c2c12cdb364b0cad8228f567595ab29.png

Yes, just a small lowering of heights & improvement in the geotrophic trough increases the risk of record threatening snowfall totals.

 It's textbook.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Colder air much better in the SE this run.

The 12z toys throwing seems like a distant nightmare.

Until tomorrow morning...

96 hrs

gfsnh-1-96.png

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sunnijim Seasoned

sunnijim

Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
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Posted
48 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I do hope that none of you have promised snow to your nearest and dearest ....... that a sure fire way of removing it from the outlook ......

we need to wait for the 00z runs to get a better feel for the precip into Sunday and whether this is drifting away

it could be that icon has lost the frontal precip but not picking up convective ??

Confident enough to tell the wife..

But not yet confident enough to tell my 16 month old!!! Will be his first sight of snow!!

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