Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[chionomaniac]

What. A. Run.

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The icon is very poor with convection.

Euro4 and NMM WRF excel in my experience. 

That flow them uppers those heights.

There will be snow all over the east coasts.

December 2010 there was a full day 4 days prior to the event talking how dry it was then 48 hours before the euro4 picked up the streamers and showed 20cm widely.

The arpege is the only model anywhere near what we would expect

In my opinion

ICON / Arpege - Location at the meso scale (not detail) so greater than 30 hours

Intensity > WRF / Euro4 & location at the micro and macro scale so within 30 hours

As I said in my earlier post, flow is less unstable but as a counteract is more prolonged. The lack of instability helps fuel frontal / streamer longevity. I see 2010 type totals.

 

 

[Paul]

28 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

I remember the days where the GFS rolled out normally and you could bet your house on a 10:45 finish. 

Back in the day it ran at 1 degree, now it's runs at 0.25 degrees so has 16 times more data and only takes about 20 mins longer, not bad really!

[Griff]

Classic pub, much better 

[Ice Day]

Monday and Tuesday lunchtime - 2nd and 3rd consecutive ice day for the vast majority

  

[Kasim Awan]

More realistic way of modelling Atlantic energy on this run compared to the GFS 12z  - models often underestimate strength of dense / cold air in terms of opposing frontal progression. This would bring in heavy snow.

[tight isobar]

Just now, Griff said:

Classic pub, much better 

Dream run .. can we even say upgrade.. in given circumstances!!!!boom!!

[sheikhy]

Upgrade on 18z!!move towards ukmo!!!

[Bradley in Kent]

If that big low goes under as well I think the netweather server might catch fire!

I'm not going to get excited untill Saturday morning though 

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Monday and Tuesday lunchtime - 2nd and 3rd consecutive ice day for the vast majority

  

Daytime max comparable with the BFTE despite uppers not being as cold. That's why you want your winter blockbuster cold spell between mid Dec to Mid Feb before that pesky sun gets to work.

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Surface scandi high v monster low.

Place your bets please

 

We haven't seen many cold surface highs like this over the years. I'm sure I read somewhere that these are nearly always underestimated by the models until nearer the time. 

[ancientsolar]

Take a look at the extension of cold in NW France and throughout UK as compared to the former run on GFS 

Edited February 4, 2021 by ancientsolar

[TSNWK]

2nd low is so much further stretched out and I would say core is about 500 miles further west.. uppers in south about 6 to 8 colder.. it might well get in on this run., but terrific trend.. seen enough...for now

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by TSNWK

[Matt H]

Pub run has a classic snow event for many next Thursday night.️

[IDO]

Much better at d7 where we have Atlantic -v- easterly:

As we would expect, the cold putting up a fight and gfs moderating its Atlantic bias. Not sure how this will develop but a few day before this is resolved?

 

[Malarky]

The blimp has stalled!

[Jason M]

Pressure a bit higher over Scandi yet again. Even if it breaks down this would be a fantastic cold spell.

[Daniel*]

You can see how milder advance is mightily struggling to progress east against very cold air 

[Ice Day]

Aaaaaand, a 4th consecutive ice day on Wednesday - stop me if this is getting boring!?

[CentralSouthernSnow]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Pub run has a classic snow event for many next Thursday night.️

Hopefully it keeps trending south... 

[Battleground Snow]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

You can see how milder advance is mightily struggling to progress east against very cold air 

Little baby steps over the next runs hopefully 12z v 18z

[sheikhy]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Aaaaaand, a 4th consecutive ice day on Wednesday - stop me if this is getting boring!?

Surely to have 4 consecutive ice days it must be down to snow cover aswell widely?!

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Much better at d7 where we have Atlantic -v- easterly:

As we would expect, the cold putting up a fight and gfs moderating its Atlantic bias. Not sure how this will develop but a few day before this is resolved?

 

Heights further west,  

Trend? 

[Johnp]

By 174 the milder air is getting mixed out. Wouldn't be surprised if the cold air started spreading back westwards again!

[radiohead]

Any breakdown is still 144+ hours away and as such will almost certainly change from what we are seeing now at that timeframe, for better or worse.