Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[That ECM]

A few more jumps to the left by the low and?

[MattStoke]

More of a direct easterly flow on this run, with kinks in the isobars that are indicative of streamers and instability. Showers get right across to the far west of the U.K. as a result.

[Jason M]

Pub run is looking to give the classic 'fizzler' where the front just dies a death over us. I'm not one to normally make predictions but I reckon come Thursday it won't even make it to the east coast. We may transition from an unstable moist easterly to a stable dry one by the end of the week.

[Snowman.]

I am see shades of Jan 2013. Small wedge of heights large Atlantic low. 
 

Anything you see past 120ish is just pure fantasy. 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Aaaaaand, a 4th consecutive ice day on Wednesday - stop me if this is getting boring!?

See if you can get one more in if correct we broadly go sub over night Saturday and stay that way until...

[matty40s]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

In my opinion

ICON / Arpege - Location at the meso scale (not detail) so greater than 30 hours

Intensity > WRF / Euro4 & location at the micro and macro scale so within 30 hours

As I said in my earlier post, flow is less unstable but as a counteract is more prolonged. The lack of instability helps fuel frontal / streamer longevity. I see 2010 type totals.

 

 

Good to see you back Kasim.

This might be the pub run, but this is immense..

[Snowmadsam]

Mods - sorry!

But LORD! 
 

I have NOT seen a NH profile like the ones we have seen on the 18z this evening in YEARS! Whether this is a trend or not is yet to be seen. But there is plenty to watch and everyone will be in with a shout based on today’s outputs 

[chionomaniac]

Big indications tonight that any Atlantic assault will be repelled and the cold will fight back.  Promising, as this is at the edge of reliable modelling. In fact, next Thursdays low may be being overplayed somewhat, and 850’s probably will stay sub zero for everywhere apart from Lands End.

[GeordieX9v]

 

Higher pressure over Scandi but that flow is bait.

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Heights further west,  

Trend? 

If we can get this to trend and move the pattern slightly west, just look at that severe cold to our east waiting:

d8>

Things going on in the background so def in the potential category for future runs?

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T162, a possible milder interlude, and we will probably have to take it anyway:    

But look at the picture NH, here’s the z500 chart with my edits:

The block to our north is difficult to see, no yellows, but it is there and is crucial to the ongoing cold - which by the way, I am fully behind, this is the real thing, just not showing on all models yet.  Follow the UKMO...

[geordiekev]

11 minutes ago, Paul said:

Back in the day it ran at 1 degree, now it's runs at 0.25 degrees so has 16 times more data and only takes about 20 mins longer, not bad really!

The good ole days.

We are spoiled (& stressed) with so much NW content these days 

[Cloud 10]

Could be the way forward?

 

[Ice Day]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

See if you can get one more in if correct we broadly go sub over night Saturday and stay that way until...

Well, I can manage it for your location (along with most of the east side of the country and north of England and Scotland) 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Ice Day

[Scott Ingham]

9 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

In my opinion

ICON / Arpege - Location at the meso scale (not detail) so greater than 30 hours

Intensity > WRF / Euro4 & location at the micro and macro scale so within 30 hours

As I said in my earlier post, flow is less unstable but as a counteract is more prolonged. The lack of instability helps fuel frontal / streamer longevity. I see 2010 type totals.

 

 

Yeah completely agree and its this micro scale abilities that make these my models of choice for streamers and showers. 

Excited for friday night and saturday mornings runs.

Yes the lack of instability keeps the flow cleaner, stops the formation of very small troughs in the flow cutting off the longevity of the easterly winds whilst we have just enough instability to create cloud tops capabale of proucing 75%/25% moderate snowfall but for a long period of time.

Dps being very low along with temperatured gives us a better moisture to snow ratio and even light showers will instantly stick

North midlands south yorkshire - 20-30cms

North east and North Yorkshire 20-30cms

Midlands and central southern england -20-30cms

South east and london - 30-40cms (due to a stalling front saturday night sunday morning)

All of this close of play tuesday with battleground snow to follow

[pyrotech]

Its quite funny on here watching emotions throughout the day

People really do not seem to grasp that almost every day they despair at 12z then party balloons for the 18Z

Compare apples with apples, last nights 18z with tonights 18z will give the change trending. Not 12Z v 18Z

There are subtle improvements, which if each run continues to improve would bring more snow to more areas and prolong the cold spell.

The trend is your friend, but you need compare equivalent model run

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Could be the way forward?

 

Imagine that ridge 300/400 miles west.

[GeordieX9v]

That low looks to get shoved canny far south 

[jacke]

3 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not a chance it doesn't even look like a slider,this is looking more and more like a mini cold spell from sunday-wednesday.not even that severe in my oppinion,I think people have gone over the top

My goodness where is your evidence??????

[CentralSouthernSnow]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah completely agree and its this micro scale abilities that make these my models of choice for streamers and showers. 

Excited for friday night and saturday mornings runs.

Yes the lack of instability keeps the flow cleaner, stops the formation of very small troughs in the flow cutting off the longevity of the easterly winds whilst we have just enough instability to create cloud tops capabale of proucing 75%/25% moderate snowfall but for a long period of time.

Dps being very low along with temperatured gives us a better moisture to snow ratio and even light showers will instantly stick

North midlands south yorkshire - 20-30cms

North east and North Yorkshire 20-30cms

Midlands and central southern england -20-30cms

South east and london - 30-40cms (due to a stalling front saturday night sunday morning)

All of this close of play tuesday with battleground snow to follow

Hmmm underwhelming really for south west. 

[Frosty the Snowman]

Looks like a serious battleground snow event emerging for the west of the country around T150 - and barrels through to the east so quite possibly a truly nationwide snow event (a rare thing indeed) , a good way to deal with the Atlantic low I suppose. 

 

 

 

Big question is whether it remains mild afterwards or cold returns. 

[damianslaw]

Classic battleground Atlantic meets cold continental block on many models for a week's time. Along way off, but yes the block to our east will have mighty fighting power. Could be one of those situations where it takes at least 2 possibly 3 goes before Atlantic breaks through. First front fizzled in situ giving significantl snow where it stalls. Second one makes greater inroads but struggles to clear UK. Third one does it, perhaps..

 

Anyhow back to the hear and now, I'll be focusing on FAX charts and radar rather than models as these wont pick up mesoscale features. Regionals are the place to be.

[Cloud 10]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Imagine that ridge 300/400 miles west.

 

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah completely agree and its this micro scale abilities that make these my models of choice for streamers and showers. 

Excited for friday night and saturday mornings runs.

Yes the lack of instability keeps the flow cleaner, stops the formation of very small troughs in the flow cutting off the longevity of the easterly winds whilst we have just enough instability to create cloud tops capabale of proucing 75%/25% moderate snowfall but for a long period of time.

Dps being very low along with temperatured gives us a better moisture to snow ratio and even light showers will instantly stick

North midlands south yorkshire - 20-30cms

North east and North Yorkshire 20-30cms

Midlands and central southern england -20-30cms

South east and london - 30-40cms (due to a stalling front saturday night sunday morning)

All of this close of play tuesday with battleground snow to follow

I'd agree on all of that, in addition I'd say the 20-30cms will be a 40% coverage in the central / northern zone due to streamer localization. Get an alternating wind direction and the streamer coverage will be widespread as the spatial extent reflects the scope of the wind direction variation. This is looking possible too though at slightly lower scales due to the more stable flow - so I'm giving a rough figure of 40% coverage of streamer enhanced very high totals. For the SE - I'd say we're in historic territory right now.

[matty40s]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah completely agree and its this micro scale abilities that make these my models of choice for streamers and showers. 

Excited for friday night and saturday mornings runs.

Yes the lack of instability keeps the flow cleaner, stops the formation of very small troughs in the flow cutting off the longevity of the easterly winds whilst we have just enough instability to create cloud tops capabale of proucing 75%/25% moderate snowfall but for a long period of time.

Dps being very low along with temperatured gives us a better moisture to snow ratio and even light showers will instantly stick

North midlands south yorkshire - 20-30cms

North east and North Yorkshire 20-30cms

Midlands and central southern england -20-30cms

South east and london - 30-40cms (due to a stalling front saturday night sunday morning)

All of this close of play tuesday with battleground snow to follow

I think you need to call a COBRA meeting Scott, take a couple of the 18z with you. No doubt Boris will call one Mid Feb.