Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Jason M]

Looking at the set up next week don't be surprised if the lows end up over France missing all but the SW. It just looks rife for pressure to rise over Scandinavia. 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

In line with the Operational run perhaps?

That can be a good thing, Iberian heights dragged up mild Southerlies  January 18-20 1947.

What did EC 240h remind me of? (a little bit) January 19 1947...

 

Oooh, that’s naughty @Cold Winter Night!  In theory our setup should be better as the polar vortex is towards Russia, rather than E USA.  Would be some undercut to bring that down in 1947.  Not saying it didn’t happen mind!  ECM T240 profile screams reload to me - might not be necessary though because the initial easterly might actually be still going on if my thinking is right, and this model let it go too soon.

What is perhaps more in tune with 1947 is the time of year, I don’t know if there was a SSW in 1947, but what happened suggested there might have been.  I do see, now, all things put together, a cold spell rather than a cold snap, and one which ‘could’ last the full span of the SSW, i.e. until into march. 

[sheikhy]

Atlantic hitting a brick wall on the ecm mean!!!could be copious amounts of snow later in the week if it goes accoring to plan!

[GeordieX9v]

Will we continue to see the cold uppers extended further across the ensembles? I hope and think so! The mild uppers been getting pushed back day by day.

[matt111]

So we've now got GloSea6? 

 

[Battleground Snow]

ECM OP generally a bit above the mean but not much, a rise in FI compared to earlier.

Lots of of options past 144 I think.

 

[AWD]

12z Ens for Bristol;

Clear signal for milder air to push in here towards the end of next week.  There is a spread, but not one that gives too many colder options yet.

12z Ens for York;

Much stronger signal for colder air to remain in situ here, smaller spread etc.  It seems as though, going exclusively by the EC Ens, that a boundary will set up somewhere over the UK between colder continental air to the north and milder Atlantic sourced air to the south, towards the end of next week.  Where this boundary is will chop and change over subsequent runs (and probably provide a lot of IMBY posts).

On another note, the EC control run must show a favourable, UK wide colder solution judging by the ens I've posted above.  Haven't seen it personally but looks cold all week everywhere.

[Matt H]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Atlantic hitting a brick wall on the ecm mean!!!could be copious amounts of snow later in the week if it goes accoring to plan!

There’s a 1025mb ridge of high pressure over Scandinavia at day 10 as well. Perhaps lining up round 2 on some of the individual runs?

[tight isobar]

The minor graphics @ecm ens 12z. The scope-doubt there.. just about going forward... and it’s early days..

[londonblizzard]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

ECM OP generally a bit above the mean but not much, a rise in FI compared to earlier.

Lots of of options past 144 I think.

 

That's an outstanding london mean!

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, londonblizzard said:

That's an outstanding london mean!

You do know these are upper air temps...about 1500m up

[yamkin]

I have been following the CFS model very closely for a few months and must say it has been very good at times. Take a look at the low feature out in the west that could bring a lot more snow to S & SE parts late Wednesday/Thursday. Not saying this will happen, but worth keeping an eye on 

 

 

Now, going further afield into no mans land, a Scandi High forms allowing easterly winds to flow  Again, not saying this will happen, but something to keep an eye on 

 

[carinthian]

Latest fax charts moves the frontal activity away with remnants of any milder air from the SE more quickly on this chart on Sunday. The bonus being the air mass will be much colder in the circulation , hence I think a upgrade for snow potential in the SE of England for Sunday of a convective type.

C

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean and spread T240:

Mean looks conducive to some heights to the north into Scandi, and potential for atlantic lows to go under.  Think there is actually a case even on the mean for average easterly winds in the NH bar the top of the chart, and of course the Atlantic!  Spread just shows massive uncertainty, reinforces message FI is T96, anything after that you are relying on background signals or tea leaves, in my case background signals though, and they are good, so expect upgrades in the T144-T240 timeframe.

[chris55]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

You do know these are upper air temps...about 1500m up

Hi Tim. Thats 5 days at circa  -10 850s for London. I'd agree with @londonblizzard that is certainly outstanding!

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Latest fax charts moves the frontal activity away with remnants of any milder air from the SE more quickly on this chart on Sunday. The bonus being the air mass will be much colder in the circulation , hence I think a upgrade for snow potential in the SE of England for Sunday of a convective type.

C

Whats odd about the UKMO fax charts is both the UKMO 12z run AND the UKV are much more aggressive with the snowfall and place the fronts much further NW than that location.

Interesting to see the differences, not sure what has made them place the fronts there, its not really backed up by anything that we can publicly see at the moment.

[Tim Bland]

UkMo precip charts ...

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Whats odd about the UKMO fax charts is both the UKMO 12z run AND the UKV are much more aggressive with the snowfall and place the fronts much further NW than that location.

Interesting to see the differences, not sure what has made them place the fronts there, its not really backed up by anything that we can publicly see at the moment.

Any charts from latest ukv mate?!!aint had a ukv update since this morning!!the fax charts look way to far south right now!!

[Uncertainty]

Maybe that CFS barnpot run was on to something?

EC46 heads back to the freezer into the start of March!

 

After a brief, and perhaps debatable, milder spell back end of week 2, the regimes support a continued domination of blocking patterns for the foreseeable 

The chances of a genuine, colder than average winter (given 5%, understandably, in the Dec contingency planner) are increasing fast. 
 

 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

UkMo precip charts ...

Ecm seems further north than that so maybe precipitation further north and west on ecm?!

[TSNWK]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Any charts from latest ukv mate?!!aint had a ukv update since this morning!!the fax charts look way to far south right now!!

We want it south.. indicative of whole pattern being south a tad in my view.. don’t worry you will still get your streamers and if my logic correct will help more broadly for us all..

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Any charts from latest ukv mate?!!aint had a ukv update since this morning!!the fax charts look way to far south right now!!

Thanks to a member in the SE regional thread but gives a good idea:

My guess is that if the UKMO shifts again it will look weaker again, still plenty of time for it to shift north, or indeed east, yet...

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

UkMo precip charts ...

@sheikhy

Closer view for you:

This is 6am on Sunday. 

Snow totals:

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T120-T168 chart:

All -NAO (green border).

Variations on a theme really, we’ve seen it on the various op runs.  What I would say is this is FI for ensembles at the moment, T96 for ops, T168 for ensembles.  Ive glanced at the later ones but look besmirched in uncertainty, to be honest.   

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Any charts from latest ukv mate?!!aint had a ukv update since this morning!!the fax charts look way to far south right now!!

Snow through the Midlands Saturday night.

Raining turning to snow in the South East on Sunday.

Snow showers packing in from the North Sea thereafter, particularly Monday onwards.