Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

I think it’s corrupt, it can’t change that much over Greenland in 24 hours!! Computer malfunction maybe 

I’m actually starting to get confused by watching the colours (z500 heights) rather than the contours (surface pressure).  The role of wedges of higher surface pressure seem important to this evolution.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

This needs to slide at 168...

 

Not a chance it doesn't even look like a slider,this is looking more and more like a mini cold spell from sunday-wednesday.not even that severe in my oppinion,I think people have gone over the top

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168 and it is going under:

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168 and it is going under:

...and so are the next two looking at that!!!

[ianmm94]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168 and it is going under:

It's too rounded and is pulling heights up into Iberia, need it to be more elongated

[Howie]

Am I the only one who thinks the low just blowing up like that is a bit unrealistic? I don't think it will happen like that, I hope 

[sheikhy]

Much more like it from the ecm!!more disruption!!is there any snow from the ecm!!not much excitement in regards to snow!!

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not a chance it doesn't even look like a slider,this is looking more and more like a mini cold spell from sunday-wednesday.not even that severe in my oppinion,I think people have gone over the top

Mate this is an easterly incursion.. not a northery.. not a polar maritime shot... like a broken record.. let’s get it in.. then I think a different scope.. spread will evolve....

[chris55]

168 and the Low gives up and slows.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

...and so are the next two looking at that!!!

Excuse me how is that going under?it introduces milder southwesterlies

[ICE COLD]

Well the low runs out off puff at 168 good signs this . 

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168 and it is going under:

The Iberian heights are rising so i dont think it will slide and will probably introduce s/sw winds as the low stalls. Insignificant though as that is in FI

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168 and it is going under:

Is it?

[Notty]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

168 and the Low gives up and slows.

Like the Gfs 12z op

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168 and it is going under:

Looks ok midlands north but a bit too marginal for the south. Snow on the ground should help with lower DP / air temps though

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Mate this is an easterly incursion.. not a northery.. not a polar maritime shot... like a broken record.. let’s get it in.. then I think a different scope.. spread will evolve....

Well let's hope so,I was just commenting on what I was seeing

[CentralSouthernSnow]

So we have 3 different models doing there own thing with this low. Jesus Christ 

[kold weather]

168hrs is different from the GFS but both are clearly bad for the south as there is a strong SW becoming established right at the back end of the front.

Will probably have more resistance further north. 

Probably a snow-rain event on this ECM run. North may hang on for a while longer.

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[craigore]

31 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Ecm T72 - snow supportive air for all but far SW (and yes that includes Margate!)

Thankyou for that..

[tight isobar]

Location for extension..pocket waa.. will be the player going forward...

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Excuse me how is that going under?it introduces milder southwesterlies

A big low to swallow without some battleground snow, I admit.

[chris55]

An historic southern UK blizzard is in the making I reckon. With that much cold air in place fighting a fired up Atlantic and there is only one way it will end up!

[Notty]

Just now, CentralSouthernSnow said:

So we have 3 different models doing there own thing with this low. Jesus Christ 

That demonstrates the 5 day FI theory I think

[PolarWarsaw]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Not a chance it doesn't even look like a slider,this is looking more and more like a mini cold spell from sunday-wednesday.not even that severe in my oppinion,I think people have gone over the top

There is still a long way to go before deciding whether that will go under or not. 

In general I'm in agreement though. 

Obviously convection might get quite far west, but for larger swathes of the country than not, this looks like a 'cold' event with the chance of occasional showers and frost. If the shoe was on the other foot and this was a Northerly, rather than Easterly it would be being treated completely differently. 

In the balance of fairness, unless we get a considerable slider event that falls favourably for central, western, south western and the far south coast areas - this is looking more and more like NOT being a SNOWY spell. Plenty of time for that to change though. Talk of historic cold spells and record snowfall is massively premature and IMO is at least 99% likely to lead to a lot of disappointment. 

Congratulations to those in the East and South east though who have missed out so far. 

PS - Before someone says, 1-2CM's isn't a notable event. 

Edited February 4, 2021 by PolarWarsaw

[Snowmaggedon]

So we’ve figured out it’s bad for the South what about the rest of the UK? 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Snowmaggedon