Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[DAVE_ALLEN]

40 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Umm? 1cm for the south on that run? There was a whole snow storm are you joking?

I think he's talking grit and salt depths..

[ICE COLD]

ECM T72 in banging

[phil nw.]

UKMO continuing to look very cold and the t144 NH chart is something rarely seen.

A strong block right over the pole pushing the cold into northern Europe and the UK with the Atlantic jet running well south.Just glancing at the pattern upstream on that chart shows we could get a good spell of battleground snow as the Atlantic lows come into the cold air over us later next week.Before then snow for many i think over the next few days.

Already over Scotland the wintery conditions will start to head south soon as the cold easterly winds start to cut in.

Fax and ukv charts for Sat.pm

A strong looking and quite long fetch easterly on it's way by the looks.

 

[sheikhy]

Ecm deeper with the low at 72 hours

[Mike Poole]

ECM T72, just a little slower to clear the low SE than GEM

[Man With Beard]

Ecm T72 - snow supportive air for all but far SW (and yes that includes Margate!)

[londonblizzard]

-9 uppers widespread by sunday lunchtime on ECM 12z

z

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

The GEM had a problem under-estimating 850's a few years ago which was supposedly fixed,but it still appears to be struggling in that department.

 

 

I do know the GEM ensembles were meaning out comfortably 2c higher than the GEFS even when the same broad pattern (ie - the beast) was being modelled, this was happening every single run, corrected since the pattern got in the lower timeframe.

[Timmytour]

Looking at the ECM uppers for Saturday as forecast from 10 days prior and from  today's 0Z

Noticeable how much more south the cold pool of -20C uppers has been modelled which perhaps is  how he easterly ooomph has been delivered making the outputs look better and better over the past few days.

Also noticeable that they while they have expanded, they have also been drifting a further east....does this create a sharper ridge that some models use to sniff as an opportunity to build an incursion of milder air into southern regions?

 

 

EDIT.....I notice they retreat a little more towards the east on the 12z run....

Edited February 4, 2021 by Timmytour

[danm]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Th GFS is a bit of a worry.  Just when we thought it was home and dry, this gets thrown up!!  Lets hope it comes to nothing and hasn't picked up a trend at the very last minute.  However, I'm still haunted by the December 2012 fiasco!!  Yet another nervous viewing tomorrow morning?

Since when was Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of next week - 6,7 and 8 days away respectively - ever home and dry? 

Let's focus on Saturday, Sunday and Monday first - which are all firming up nicely, and see how the attempted breakdown/battleground shapes up as we get closer to that time frame.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I do know the GEM ensembles were meaning out comfortably 2c higher than the GEFS even when the same broad pattern (ie - the beast) was being modelled, this was happening every single run, corrected since the pattern got in the lower timeframe.

The GEM ensembles are terrible!  Not so the op, which had an upgrade a couple of years ago.  It’s my number 3 model.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96 compared with GEM:

Get in there, back of the net! 

[ICE COLD]

No problem from the ECM t96

[CentralSouthernSnow]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96 compared with GEM:

Get in there, back of the net! 

Lows look like they’re moving in the right direction ready for Wednesday

[Tim Bland]

All getting a bit kinky in the south east...

[chris55]

 

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

No problem from the ECM t96

Looks quite an unstable flow!! You would think some troughs/features could well push right across the UK in that flow!

[Jason M]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

No problem from the ECM t96

And even within the mild sector temps uppers are around minus 5. Rain won’t be concern at that point.

[londonblizzard]

Yesterday's ECM 12Z introduced a big milder sector for the south east on monday.

None of that today! At worst -8 clips the kent coast:

 

[Cloud 10]

Plenty of gas in the tank if we can keep this easterly going,thats for sure.

 

[ICE COLD]

A closer look at t72 and t96

[tight isobar]

Ecm 12z picking up the signal ..she wobbled @+144 previous.. but when she clasps it.. she’s the lead mod...@for sure .. see where she runs @12z

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Lows look like they’re moving in the right direction ready for Wednesday

 

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96 compared with GEM:

Get in there, back of the net! 

ECM atlantic low looks more rounded, compared with GEM more longer....... however ECM looks colder in our neck and has the pattern a bit better south... ? 

[sheikhy]

Big 120 hour chart coming up!!!will it be ukmo or gfs!!!looks good at 96 hours but that low coming out of eastern seaboard looks ominous!

[Mike Poole]

Just now, TSNWK said:

 

ECM atlantic low looks more rounded, compared with GEM more longer....... however ECM looks colder in our neck and has the pattern a bit better south... ? 

Should slide anyway, we’ll soon see.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Big 120 hour chart coming up!!!will it be ukmo or gfs!!!looks good at 96 hours but that low coming out of eastern seaboard looks ominous!

Is does.. I'm F5ing.................

Edited February 4, 2021 by TSNWK