Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[saintkip]

3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Updated my forecast from yesterday based on last 24 hours of runs. Taken into account small shifts on ECM and GFS in the nearer timeframe, with a wider area of snow possible on Sunday - decided not to be swayed by the GFS's very progressive take on the midweek front...

I prefer this one

[sheikhy]

Just taken a look at the ensembles for my location and it seems an outlier from thursday at the top end!many more on the -10 line!before that gfs has ice days widely!!!

[sunnijim]

The GEM should be given much greater attention imo than the GFS.

The GEM remember was the first publicly viewable model to pick out the upcoming freeze( certainly at day 10)perhaps further out.

The GFS continues to find over excited ways of defeating our cold block.

Too much too soon.

 

 

[kold weather]

UKMO has big time upgraded the snow threat on Sunday, looks similar to the GFS but no warm sector to speak of over the SE:

5-10cms across the SE, 15cms N.Kent and Suffolk.

@nick sussex that run is about the worst possible way to evolve out of the pattern. If its going to go like that, may as well have that first low further north so we can get snow out of that!

Edited February 4, 2021 by kold weather

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, ptow said:

Only 0.5 to 1cm for most of the South on that run, but yes good for cold

No way would there only be that amount of snow. Just shows how useless precipitation charts are on the global models.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Quick! someone post the CFS before everyone loses there mind!

I hope Paul, the mods and Co will allow me a few... 

Trust me, my response is model related! 

[Continental Climate]

Well that gfs was a bit of a kick in the goolies wasn't it? Blowing up those Atlantic lows is what it does so not too worried....yet!!!

[Scorcher]

1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

The GEM should be given much greater attention imo than the GFS.

The GEM remember was the first publicly viewable model to pick out the upcoming freeze( certainly at day 10)perhaps further out.

The GFS continues to find over excited ways of defeating our cold block.

Too much too soon.

 

 

Is this because the GFS isn't showing you what you want to see? The evolution looks very feasible to me. That low approaching from the west is always going to cut off the supply of cold air sooner rather than later. The Atlantic just looks far too active to me to sustain a cold easterly flow for any more than a few days.

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKMO has big time upgraded the snow threat on Sunday, looks similar to the GFS but no warm sector to speak of over the SE:

5-10cms across the SE, 15cms N.Kent and Suffolk.

@nick sussex that run is about the worst possible way to evolve out of the pattern. If its going to go like that, may as well have that first low further north so we can get snow out of that!

All the more to think gfs maybe on the right track with it further north and all the rest of the models maybe playin catch up with it!!!ecm has it in a very similar position as gfs as well!!

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Another thing to note is the ukmo and ecm have a bit more amplification around eastern states at 144 hours which helps disrupt the trough a bit more!!the gfs is much flatter for the same time period!!

i'm glad someone noticed that ridge …..one of the reasons the ec op 00z disrupted the lw atlantic trough so effectively 

[sheikhy]

Just now, bluearmy said:

i'm glad someone noticed that ridge …..one of the reasons the ec op 00z disrupted the lw atlantic trough so effectively 

We need to see that ridge on the 12z again blue or it might not be as good!!ukmos conistency for its day 6 chart from yesterday to today is quite remarkable!!

[Scorcher]

The GFS isn't the only model showing that low in the Atlantic moving towards our shores by midweek- the UKMO also shows this possibility. Obviously it will depend on where the low ends up, but the odds are not in favour of a prolonged cold spell with such active weather systems moving eastwards across the Atlantic.

 

[winterof79]

I posted this in the regionals but I'll drop it in here too

Listen in carefully all bed wetters as I shall say this only vonce..... 

Once the continental Air surges across the North sea disturbances embedded  in the flow will crop up at very short range and will be only picked up at the last minute. 

Remember this is NOT a 24 hr Easterly more like 4 days from Sunday..... And relax. 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Is this because the GFS isn't showing you what you want to see? The evolution looks very feasible to me. That low approaching from the west is always going to cut off the supply of cold air sooner rather than later. The Atlantic just looks far too active to me to sustain a cold easterly flow for any more than a few days.

Oh, come on @Scorcher... at least the GFS is showing some cold rain/sleet, at T+384!

I don't think it'll be right, BTW!

[tight isobar]

Far too much panic in here... I’ll stick an analysis up later via potentials/scopes =ens etc... everything you’d expect b4 a notable spell is occurring via data..   no need for the trauma.. trust me

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

All the more to think gfs maybe on the right track with it further north and all the rest of the models maybe playin catch up with it!!!ecm has it in a very similar position as gfs as well!!

Quite possible, the GFS is often too far north at this range historically...however the models have been a little too far south on several occasions so despite having no support it probably deserves to kept in mind. I'm going to have a close watch of the ensembles from the ECM in particular, which was very much cooler in the SE in terms of the 850hpa profiles.

This almost certainly is going to go down to the wire regardless!

[CentralSouthernSnow]

13 minutes ago, ptow said:

Only 0.5 to 1cm for most of the South on that run, but yes good for cold

Umm? 1cm for the south on that run? There was a whole snow storm are you joking?

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Quite possible, the GFS is often too far north at this range historically...however the models have been a little too far south on several occasions so despite having no support it probably deserves to kept in mind. I'm going to have a close watch of the ensembles from the ECM in particular, which was very much cooler in the SE in terms of the 850hpa profiles.

This almost certainly is going to go down to the wire regardless!

This year has been weird in terms of sliders!!theyve ended up going south in the medium range but then 24 hours beforehand they go further north than forecast!!normally its the other way round!!

[sunnijim]

7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Is this because the GFS isn't showing you what you want to see? The evolution looks very feasible to me. That low approaching from the west is always going to cut off the supply of cold air sooner rather than later. The Atlantic just looks far too active to me to sustain a cold easterly flow for any more than a few days.

No, it is because all evidence available to us,be it historic data on how blocks hold,a cursory glance at the thoughts of Exeter or the usual behaviour of the GFS in overflowing Lows.

 

[Weather vane]

5 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

No, it is because all evidence available to us,be it historic data on how blocks hold,a cursory glance at the thoughts of Exeter or the usual behaviour of the GFS in overflowing Lows.

 

Apologies for the ignorance. but I often see reference to Exeter. Is that where the met office is based? And if so, where can you get the Exeter 'comments' ?

[tight isobar]

Points of note via the raws: 1 concentrate on Saturday >Tuesday!   2: assume everything beyond them time params are pie in the sky. : 3 dissmiss all precipitation data charts until 24hrs out of notions. 4: expect a rollercoaster ride until saturdays 12z suites. 5 ; and the most important..let the flow@easterly incursion actually be Door  knocking b4 looking for possible routes of breakdown,to herald the return of bk to basics... take these into consideration ... and you’ll save yaself pulpatations and unnecessary greif!!!

Edited February 4, 2021 by tight isobar

[stokepa31]

15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The GFS isn't the only model showing that low in the Atlantic moving towards our shores by midweek- the UKMO also shows this possibility. Obviously it will depend on where the low ends up, but the odds are not in favour of a prolonged cold spell with such active weather systems moving eastwards across the Atlantic.

 

Im thinking back to the beast and it blew the doors off and sailed quickly into a weak Atlantic. Bit of energy resisting the east is a positive to me. Bring in the battleground

[Battleground Snow]

-12/-13 850mb temps at 114 in London on the UKMO, you'd think this would generate significant streamers under fairly low heights.

 

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Points of note via the raws: 1 concentrate on Saturday >Tuesday!   2: assume everything beyond them time params are pie in the sky. : 3 dissmiss all precipitation data charts until 24hrs out of notions. 4: expect a rollercoaster ride until saturdays 12z suites. 5 ; and the most important..let the flow@easterly incursion actually be Dior knocking b4 looking for possible routes of breakdown,to herald the return of bk to basics... take these into consideration ... and you’ll save yaself pulpatations and unnecessary greif!!!

Thats the first post where i have understood exactly what you mean

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Thats the first post where i have understood exactly what you mean

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