Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Battleground Snow]

The Gfs OP is a bit out on its own with the temps over south east... Ukmo and para will  probably be closer to the mark, especially if the ECM shows this too!

[Blessed Weather]

Folks. with so many models rolling out, if you are going to make a post without charts can you at least say what model you are referring to. Thank you.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

No saggy bottoms here...

 

After the winds beer easterly that low over Europe starts to bend the winds more north easterly so showers will still be piling into the east. Interestingly the UKMO offer little modification of the deep cold over the south that has popped up in other models.

Yep.. on those increased uppers for the south east on other Models - I wonder why UKM is keeping it cold throughout?

[JoeShmoe]

The UKMO and ECM have both been rock solid this last week with this evolution so I’d be backing them just now ..

[nick sussex]

Quite marked differences developing between the GFS and UKMO in terms of the depth of cold from within T72 hrs even though the overall pattern is the same .

So just when the drama seemed to be abating the latest one will make a big difference to different regions .

Edited February 4, 2021 by nick sussex

[Speedbird]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Rain?

yep, move on 24 hours

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

From an IMBY perspective the trend is not great. We do not really get a pure easterly and the -8c never reaches us:

Def a shift north on this run and any further correction may see a rain fest. Certainly the Met weekend review suggesting rain for Sunday and maybe snow? Only one run from one model so just one to watch really. Others further north are in for some interesting easterly games.

On the GfS . Check out the 5 star model . 
 

UKMO 72 to 144 

 

[Chesil View]

Just now, TSNWK said:

Yep.. on those increased uppers for the south east on other Models - I wonder why UKM is keeping it cold throughout?

Probably because it will be right

[craigore]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

From an IMBY perspective the trend is not great. We do not really get a pure easterly and the -8c never reaches us:

Def a shift north on this run and any further correction may see a rain fest. Certainly the Met weekend review suggesting rain for Sunday and maybe snow? Only one run from one model so just one to watch really. Others further north are in for some interesting easterly games.

Yep 

This is not the outcome we worship in the south. The -8 uppers flirt wth us but font take hold until Monday night by which time the rivers will be overflowing again after more rain we dont need.

Just one option on the table but I'm not liking..

[Speedbird]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

The Gfs OP is a bit out on its own with the temps over south east... Ukmo and para will  probably be closer to the mark, especially if the ECM shows this too!

agreed, but we mustn't totally discount the GFS even if it is somewhat isolated

[Notty]

GFS 12z Op - LP quite it a bit keener to move East than the 06z

[That ECM]

Gfs doing what it does? I reckon.

[121]

24 minutes ago, icykev said:

The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144

GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156

Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.

Resulting in this

Storm Emma 2018

Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄

25 minutes ago, icykev said:

The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144

GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156

Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.

Resulting in this

Storm Emma 2018

Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄

I was just beginning to think how this sort of feels like how storm Emma evolved and how SW and my area S.Wales are really still in the game. Though, I’m sure the more educated in here will be able to educate how this set-up differs.

I live at sea level and a gritter became stranded on a road facing the sea - by the time the storm blew over, all that was visible was the top section of the windscreen and the little ‘spreading’ box on the roof.

[frosty ground]

For those in the south east looking at the GFS, this is the least snowiest chart for Kent, which looks likes its limited to very small amount of coast.

[Ice Day]

The Para is much colder than the GFS - 108 / 120 /132 charts

 

I think the GFS is being a bit, 'oooh, look at me' here!  If it's the UKMO v GFS at 120, I know where my money is going.

[Nimbusman]

14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

UKMO 144. Just beautiful! 1070mb Arctic high!

Yup Geneo low in situ too! Keeps the easterly flow strong   
 

Interesting to see how that low out west interacts in the next few runs 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

8 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

UKMO looks great, better 850's than this mornings run and maintains a strong easterly wind throughout. Just looked at GFS model not so good though.

But remember.. it had the limpet low over Glasgow earlier in the week, and it corrected 350miles SE in the end.. If that happens to this monster low. It will take it over NW France. And snowmageddon for the South and S Wales..

[Chesil View]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

The Para is much colder than the GFS - 108 / 120 /132 charts

 

I think the GFS is being a bit, 'oooh, look at me' here!  If it's the UKMO v GFS at 120, I know where my money is going.

Well it has to play up to justify its four runs a day.

[NewEra21]

For those concerned towards the far SE, this should ease your fears a little

[Tim Bland]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

From an IMBY perspective the trend is not great. We do not really get a pure easterly and the -8c never reaches us:

Def a shift north on this run and any further correction may see a rain fest. Certainly the Met weekend review suggesting rain for Sunday and maybe snow? Only one run from one model so just one to watch really. Others further north are in for some interesting easterly games.

 GfS , GFSp, Icon and Aperge all show snow right to the south coast from Sunday morning. Any low res slides that show rain the south are very short lived and turn back to snow in the next frame Really no need to put a downer on this amazing cold spell we are about to enter! 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by Paul
Models

[nick sussex]

The GFS to be blunt is a bit of a shocker and rapidly goes downhill as it allows the PV in Canada to phase with Atlantic shortwave energy , this then feeds energy into that and you see the pattern becomes more progressive .

 I hate to use the word shocker when there will still be some snow but really not a good run in terms of extending the cold .

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

I think the GFS is being a bit, 'oooh, look at me' here!

What about the 7th and 8th on the GFS (P)?

[Don]

Th GFS is a bit of a worry.  Just when we thought it was home and dry, this gets thrown up!!  Lets hope it comes to nothing and hasn't picked up a trend at the very last minute.  However, I'm still haunted by the December 2012 fiasco!!  Yet another nervous viewing tomorrow morning?

Edited February 4, 2021 by Don

[frosty ground]

Snowy breakdown for the south, the north holds on until the next push



Danger of wide spread ice temps near 0 down south still

[Cold Winter Night]

4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Gfs doing what it does? I reckon.

Looks like it.

Keep an eye on those heights to the North. They don't disappear.

UKMO might go on to connect the new ridge to Scandi/Iceland heights.

GFS, even though it's completely different, still goes on to increase Scandi heights later on.