Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

It's a busy time right now, so please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 

For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
And for more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

There's now also a cold spell chat and discusison thread.

Recommended Posts

  • Popular Post
icykev Aficionado

icykev

Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Popular Post
Posted

The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144

UW144-21.thumb.gif.98b3d99192ad6ff721cc2d5575b9fb59.gif

GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156

gem-0-156.thumb.png.1dd63f12a6d2fe000f8aef854e5dfb41.png

Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.

anim_jkd1.gif

Resulting in thisgem-16-186.thumb.png.03cdd007edc0b8abc2a909982cec4a57.png

Storm Emma 2018

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_2018_3_2_0.thumb.jpg.be12c528c4f166c841f44f2c7016e564.jpg

Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄

  • Like 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Snow moving down the country Sat pm

image.thumb.png.7df1fae1ff097dc811e239c11d171b0a.png

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CentralSouthernSnow Contributor

CentralSouthernSnow

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
3 minutes ago, icykev said:

The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144

UW144-21.thumb.gif.98b3d99192ad6ff721cc2d5575b9fb59.gif

GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156

gem-0-156.thumb.png.1dd63f12a6d2fe000f8aef854e5dfb41.png

Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.

anim_jkd1.gif

Resulting in thisgem-16-186.thumb.png.03cdd007edc0b8abc2a909982cec4a57.png

Storm Emma 2018

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_2018_3_2_0.thumb.jpg.be12c528c4f166c841f44f2c7016e564.jpg

Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄

Not the low missing south west it needs to shift south more 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

Already signs of a streamer aligning all the way across the North sea

I have seen the formation before eminating from the Baltic sea in a North Easterly 

image.thumb.png.de9833159dfa9bd8333172c598ac7b8d.png

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

marginal gains for inland eastern areas on the icon, albeit with questionable uppers

00z: 

image.thumb.png.2db473beae379da245666ba975465e45.png

06Z: 

image.thumb.png.c7d2b097277a7fbf708a7ac5d87cb81a.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

Only 3 days until lift off now. I still can’t believe that it’s actually happening!❄️

848F71A0-3155-437A-A8F8-6460AA3BCB1A.thumb.png.495df9a2e9cd93daf08963d6e8102c8f.png878B3EE0-210E-412F-BCA1-DCE2EAD2A7DD.thumb.png.9f3e9343ddef9c4edbf5e4c26e31cdc6.pngDA34934F-62D6-42C4-B798-76E21C385B34.thumb.png.39a3ac5d3de6391ffb1f5025c8495e9b.png

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
goosey007 Community Regular

goosey007

Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Popular Post
Posted

Snow looks a shade further west on 12z Gfs covering larger part of the country....!!

image.thumb.png.0c72fa885fb2e1271330d81d24a1adb7.pngimage.thumb.png.e78890ee822f082e8e2891ed7e88a8f1.png

  • Like 11
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Andypvfc Enthusiast

Andypvfc

Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
Posted
5 minutes ago, icykev said:

The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144

UW144-21.thumb.gif.98b3d99192ad6ff721cc2d5575b9fb59.gif

GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156

gem-0-156.thumb.png.1dd63f12a6d2fe000f8aef854e5dfb41.png

Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.

anim_jkd1.gif

Resulting in thisgem-16-186.thumb.png.03cdd007edc0b8abc2a909982cec4a57.png

Storm Emma 2018

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_2018_3_2_0.thumb.jpg.be12c528c4f166c841f44f2c7016e564.jpg

Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄

To be honest that is further North than Storm Emma mate. Believe it got as far North as Stone but completely missed Stoke Northwards.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
IanT Aficionado

IanT

Posted
  • Location: Woking
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual works for me...!
  • Location: Woking
Posted
3 minutes ago, icykev said:

The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144

UW144-21.thumb.gif.98b3d99192ad6ff721cc2d5575b9fb59.gif

GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156

gem-0-156.thumb.png.1dd63f12a6d2fe000f8aef854e5dfb41.png

Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.

anim_jkd1.gif

Resulting in thisgem-16-186.thumb.png.03cdd007edc0b8abc2a909982cec4a57.png

Storm Emma 2018

EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_2018_3_2_0.thumb.jpg.be12c528c4f166c841f44f2c7016e564.jpg

Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄

It's hard to believe the low will remain as tight and organised as it is presently modelled. But it isn't impossible, so a named storm is a real possibility. Could be a three-way tussle for naming rights though. It might be interesting to look back at the starting conditions for Emma.

I am 100% confident we'll get a "snow bomb" headline from the Daily Mail though...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted
Just now, Frosty Winter said:

Only 3 days until lift off now. I still can’t believe that it’s actually happening!❄️

848F71A0-3155-437A-A8F8-6460AA3BCB1A.thumb.png.495df9a2e9cd93daf08963d6e8102c8f.png878B3EE0-210E-412F-BCA1-DCE2EAD2A7DD.thumb.png.9f3e9343ddef9c4edbf5e4c26e31cdc6.pngDA34934F-62D6-42C4-B798-76E21C385B34.thumb.png.39a3ac5d3de6391ffb1f5025c8495e9b.png

A slight upgrade for inland areas against the 00z run again, which is a relief. 

Sunday afternoon 00z: 

image.thumb.png.dc84d99e37462b1eaba31d79b012103b.png

Sunday afternoon 06z: 

image.thumb.png.789d12c80781620911966221d7083bad.png

This is what the big globals have been showing and is what we want for more widespread action on Sunday. Seeing it on a shorter-ranger is very encouraging...

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)

06z ICON vs 12z ICON:

icon-2-81.thumb.png.89d3d7e515f040afd2b9b43c6f8af915.png   icon-2-75.thumb.png.58c443172430277f936000f25c5d1d0d.png

Latest run pushes the snow a tad further west.

Edited by Zak M
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
Notty Community Regular

Notty

Posted
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Pontypool, 132m ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted
Just now, Zak M said:

12z ICON vs 06z ICON:

icon-2-81.thumb.png.89d3d7e515f040afd2b9b43c6f8af915.png   icon-2-75.thumb.png.58c443172430277f936000f25c5d1d0d.png

Latest run pushes the snow a tad further west.

GFS // agrees

image.thumb.png.2467d4dffc0c58c9c0bb9e6db2986f2f.png

  • Like 14
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
DAVE_ALLEN Enthusiast

DAVE_ALLEN

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
13 minutes ago, craigore said:

Whys it showing rain in East Kent.

Surely the uppers are more than cold enough to produce snow by then even in coastal areas.. 

There is a small warm sector that keeps cropping up.. Should be out of the way by monday evening.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Ice day sunday for much of the UK.

image.thumb.png.76e9c9dd7128330c5eb71516bed480dd.png

Same for monday.

image.thumb.png.09d6324ec56eb7fbf86187c1953f818b.png

GFS still under does temps I believe however? Unless that has changed?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
craigore Aficionado

craigore

Posted
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: BEASTERLYS
  • Location: Ramsgate,East Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, Notty said:

GFS // agrees

image.thumb.png.2467d4dffc0c58c9c0bb9e6db2986f2f.png

Still concerning how close the milder uppers over France are..bit to close for comfort.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
goosey007 Community Regular

goosey007

Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
Posted

image.thumb.png.2cd1b61c1fc2ca1cc9f922d0d6a3372f.pngThe Low that keeps on giving ...just hanging around four hours!!!!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jarrow Posh Apprentice

Jarrow Posh

Posted
  • Location: Jarrow,Tyne & Wear
  • Weather Preferences: All extreme weather especially cold and snow!
  • Location: Jarrow,Tyne & Wear
Posted
1 minute ago, craigore said:

Still concerning how close the milder uppers over France are..bit to close for comfort.

That's the risk that could bring greater rewards though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
2 minutes ago, craigore said:

Still concerning how close the milder uppers over France are..bit to close for comfort.

Definitely, it's making me itch, hoping for it to be moved further south on the next runs

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...