Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[Tom Jarvis]

I’m going with the UKMO location of the low at t96. There is a reason the gfs is the worst preforming model. I’m sure it has that low 300 miles too far north. 

[phil nw.]

Just a couple of charts from the nw med range model for Sunday.

The cold air just about covering everyone as it wraps around the low from the ne.A bit of a broad brush model wrt snow but gives a general idea what to look out for.With that strong ,cold and unstable easterly we should expect snow around for many,especially the further east.

[chris55]

Blimey!!! Thats one hell of an ukmo day 5!

[ICE COLD]

Cant wait to see the uppers on UKMO 

T120

[Howie]

1 minute ago, MKN said:

Providing pressure remains high enough where ive highlighted then a sustained easterly becomes more likely. Thats the key thing to look for over the coming runs... 

Murr sausage?

[Met4Cast]

UKMO day 5 is chart of the season, perhaps chart of the DECADE. 

Huge split in the TPV with a cross polar flow. BITTERLY cold across the UK with significant (talking feet) of snow across much of eastern and south-eastern England. 

Frontal snow edging into the SW. 

This chart belongs in the 80's. Unbelievable.

[TSNWK]

looks more slidey early next week now - think it was @Mike Poole who said it might early doors - although the actual uppers on the ground look a little less cold....

[Matt H]

Beautiful UKMO 12z at t144. Looks like it could be trying to set up a more sustained cold spell here!

[Ice Day]

UK at 144 looks superb - just need to see the 850's for sure

[Howie]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

UKMO day 5 is chart of the season, perhaps chart of the DECADE. 

Huge split in the TPV with a cross polar flow. BITTERLY cold across the UK with significant (talking feet) of snow across much of eastern and south-eastern England. 

Frontal snow edging into the SW. 

This chart belongs in the 80's. Unbelievable.

This really could be shaping up to be quite significant

[Snowman.]

I would get jiggy with the UKMO at 144!

[MJB]

12z's are good so far ............UKMO is very good 

[chris55]

GFS 120

Small low wrapping in some slightly less impressive 850s. Still very cold for most.

[winterof79]

Stunner for the North that bad boy with a long fetch frigid  Easterly running o'er a warmer North Sea

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by winterof79

[Mark wheeler]

A thing of beauty Ukmo 144 

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, MKN said:

Providing pressure remains high enough where ive highlighted then a sustained easterly becomes more likely. Thats the key thing to look for over the coming runs... 

Absolutely right, and that is a big difference between the 12z T132 and 6z T138 on GFS, here:

And why this run is much better.

[ITSY]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Beautiful UKMO 12z at t144. Looks like it could be trying to set up a more sustained cold spell here!

Flaming heck. Like you Frosty I'm not talking from a Cambridge POV here (I'm doubtful how well we'll do in our back yard) but from a hemispheric and national perspective, wowza. What a setup! 

[sheikhy]

I really cant believe what im watching here!!gfs and ukmo are not only freezing they are snowy all round!!

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

UKMO day 5 is chart of the season, perhaps chart of the DECADE. 

Huge split in the TPV with a cross polar flow. BITTERLY cold across the UK with significant (talking feet) of snow across much of eastern and south-eastern England. 

Frontal snow edging into the SW. 

This chart belongs in the 80's. Unbelievable.

LOL! at chart of decade in 2021 but yes its a peach...  and is that a RAMP from @Met4Cast - Uppers to confirm before full on boomage?

[North East Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UK at 144 looks superb - just need to see the 850's for sure

I wouldn't worry about the 850's, I'd bet my house they are cold

[tight isobar]

UKMO..run of the century ... we are going into winter in a real winter way!!!!!!..@unreal suites

[carinthian]

5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all, I have an update from the experts over here. Regarding the model performances over the past few days , they have certainly been impressed with the consistency shown by the UKMO as opposed to the fluctuates shown in the American and European models. Now the question I ask , " When is North Europe, apart from Scandinavia going to get real cold "?  They expect the pesky little low over the British Isles to sink a bit faster than the current models show by weekend. Beyond that a real squeeze on the isobar flow into Northern Britain by Sunday with the first pulse of cold air advection. Their charts also indicate several trough formations to develop in the flow , early next week . The out parameter of the snow computer flags up convective snow starting Sunday afternoon ( Humber , northwards ) with snow risk increasing further south into Monday. Tuesday is out of range at the moment but the team expect Tuesday to be the day of most widespread snow from North Sea trough alignments. So for model watching over the next 72 hours will be focused on  changes in position or rate in movement/ sinking of the low. At last looking good for you guys, especially in the North with blizzards developing there from late Sunday.

C

Re above : Its clear now the GFS/UKMO  are sinking the low more quickly with each run with a full easterly in place by Sunday which looks like becoming very potent by Monday in to Tuesday.

 C

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

UKMO day 5 is chart of the season, perhaps chart of the DECADE. 

Huge split in the TPV with a cross polar flow. BITTERLY cold across the UK with significant (talking feet) of snow across much of eastern and south-eastern England. 

Frontal snow edging into the SW. 

This chart belongs in the 80's. Unbelievable.

Steady Med4Cast! Let’s first get at least 5cm of snowfall before talking about feet of snow!

UKMO 120hrs chart absolutely stunning!

[Ice Day]

96 / 120 / 144 850's on the UK

  

I thought they may have been a tad colder for the south, but should be cold enough for most, cracking charts for sure

Edited February 3, 2021 by Ice Day

[Howie]

Is it me or am I seeing a huge area of high pressure stretching across the entire North Atlantic and the Arctic on the models? Very extreme