Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Stunner for the North that bad boy with a long fetch frigid  Easterly running oer a warmer North Sea

 

For quite a few I'd say 

[Scandinavian High.]

Wow east of England south east England..

EFA04A22-5AF5-4549-9A7F-1929E4E926D5.webp

Edited February 3, 2021 by Scandinavian High.

[Dimie10]

I sense the excitement!! I take it i am too far west to benefit from any of these models regarding potential snowfall?

[MJB]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

96 / 120 / 144 850's on the UK

  

I though they may have been a tad colder for the south, but should be cold enough for most, cracking charts for sure

Oh they will be cold enough away from the Coast 

[Neilsouth]

9 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Blimey!!! Thats one hell of an ukmo day 5!

I haven't seen a UKMO chart like that since... Forever?!??!

[weirpig]

And here comes the gfs  with his sombrero 

[Singularity]

  

GFS continues to make more of the wrap-in of warm sector toward southeast England during Saturday.

This means it brings more moisture into play there but also reduces the convective contribution. Does it balance out, I wonder - is this a win-win setup unless the warm sector advances too far?

Fun but perhaps pointless questions at this stage .

[GeorgeA]

3 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Flaming heck. Like you Frosty I'm not talking from a Cambridge POV here (I'm doubtful how well we'll do in our back yard) but from a hemispheric and national perspective, wowza. What a setup! 

I am very hopeful for us in Cambridge though, we missed out so far this winter.... fingers crossed this is our time!

[feb1991blizzard]

Think you can pretty much bin anything from now onwards on the GFS, is it really going to blow up that low in the Atlantic shown like that?

[SqueakheartLW]

          

How can we be seeing this kind of chart when the NAO forecast doesn't even reflect the -NAO setup on the GFS chart. Doesn't that show classic -NAO with high pressure near Greenland and Iceland and lower pressure further south?

[Geordiesnow]

I was a little nerve jittering about those uppers earlier on the GFS, it does seem too me the flow is more ESE'ly in recent runs for Saturday into Sunday so it does mean for the south a slight delay in the cold but again a slight positioning could mean more easterly flow and colder uppers coming earlier again. The margin for error in the south is really not all that high but hopefully the cold air can filter down there eventually.

[Drifter]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

96 / 120 / 144 850's on the UK

  

I thought they may have been a tad colder for the south, but should be cold enough for most, cracking charts for sure

They’re only less cold in the south as the lows in the channel are trying to edge in. 

[That ECM]

@IDO you alright? Haven’t seen any mean posts for ages 

 

now there’s a chart.

[Tim Bland]

Obviously the east I’m will be getting battered by deep snow on the UKMO but for the south west contingent there could be something from that low sitting just off the south coast...

[supernova]

UKMO ejects the limpet low cleanly east and slides the upstream system beneath long-fetch easterlies for a spectacular synoptic set up with long-term potential. Perfection.

GFS holds the limpet low slightly further north (than the 06z) and the coldest uppers are delayed into the SE BUT upstream low sliding more readily - short term pain might bring long term gain.

Edit: Blows up the dart-board low upstream (as always). That's as far as I'm going.

[Derecho]

Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

          

How can we be seeing this kind of chart when the NAO forecast doesn't even reflect the -NAO setup on the GFS chart. Doesn't that show classic -NAO with high pressure near Greenland and Iceland and lower pressure further south?

There are different methods of measuring the NAO, the US definition, is more relevant to the eastern USA and is around neutral. The version often referred to for the UK is the Gibraltar / Iceland SLP gradient which in the chart above is negative.

[weirpig]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Obviously the east I’m will be getting battered by deep snow on the UKMO but for the south west contingent there could be something from that low sitting just off the south coast...

To be honest Tim  that gfs 12z  gives many hours of snow  from the east pushing way inland      4 models in and all look great 

[phil nw.]

59 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Beautiful UKMO 12z at t144. Looks like it could be trying to set up a more sustained cold spell here!

What i like about that chart is the way the troughing heads further east into W.Russia.This would start to draw Siberian cold into the flow from further east.We can see this on the t144 hr 850's

 

Currently the air is scourced more from Scandinavia which is cold enough of course! A top up of cold is no bad thing though to keep things interesting.

Edited February 3, 2021 by phil nw.
corrected image

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

96 / 120 / 144 850's on the UK

  

I thought they may have been a tad colder for the south, but should be cold enough for most, cracking charts for sure

do we think -5/-6 uppers on the 144 will introduce a rain risk - thiking on the -7 and rain streamer early January?

[Frigid]

4 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

          

How can we be seeing this kind of chart when the NAO forecast doesn't even reflect the -NAO setup on the GFS chart. Doesn't that show classic -NAO with high pressure near Greenland and Iceland and lower pressure further south?

That NAO chart is from the 1st. Think it would be more negative in the next chart

[Singularity]

Worthy of note that GFS has also increased the amount of high pressure to the north of the UK.

Even its classic dartboard low is struggling to make inroads.

[Drifter]

Just now, TSNWK said:

do we think -5/-6 uppers on the 144 will introduce a rain risk - thiking on the -7 and rain streamer early January?

No chance

- lower dew points

- colder source of air

- colder seas

- more embedded cold 

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

do we think -5/-6 uppers on the 144 will introduce a rain risk - thiking on the -7 and rain streamer early January?

Don't quote me, but I think it's probably fine.  Like to see the dew points but I reckon it's OK - just!

[sheikhy]

Guys sit back and relax and enjoy what is heading for us!!!!!fully expect an ecm corker in a while!!

[ITSY]

2 minutes ago, Drifter said:

No chance

- lower dew points

- colder source of air

- colder seas

- more embedded cold 

No chance later on (the time you're referencing) but there is a small chance of this for Sunday/Monday if the low touches the SE Quadrant, at least according to the GFS (which does, thankfully, appear to be the least reliable at the moment). One to watch but it is only the starting gun so to speak...

Edited February 3, 2021 by ITSY