Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[TSNWK]

8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Before the EC starts rolling..... can we just appreciate and admire the NH pattern on the UKMO 144. Im in awe to be honest!

A very very rare chart, and one we should save for the next 10 winters when its all TPV over Greenland!

 

you are so right - we sometimes forget what is right under our nose today, compared with previous years and I guess future - so after 10 years I have updated my profile pic - dated as well... 

Edited February 3, 2021 by TSNWK

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

you are so right - we sometimes forget what is right under our nose today, compared with previous years and I guess future - so after 10 years I have updated my profile pic - dated as well... 

That’s confidence for you!!  Hope ECM delivers the same, every chance, we’ve got past the issue a few days ago ECM was having trouble with, now the GFS is struggling.  

Now that we’ve got past the troublesome low story, it would be well worth watching developments on NH view for reasons @chris55 notes above.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Don said:

That's subject to change several times between now and then.  Was always going to be knife edge for the south but everyone is in with a chance at least!

Was always going to be knife edge? Shouldn't be using that term for the best spell in several years really....Also the precip has been continually lack-luster since the outset for the south ao its still dreadfully frustrating. 

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Guest

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

35 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Based on all the models I've seen in the past 24 hours, this is my interpretation, well it was a picture or 1000 words  

Your thoughts are for 2 days of snow for the east anglia region ? The regional forecast earlier (not that I take them as gospel) was suggesting 4 days. Do you think that is unlikely ? In an easterly, is it possible for convective snow showers from the north sea for more than a couple of days ?     

[Mr_Pessimistic]

1 minute ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Your thoughts are for 2 days of snow for the east anglia region ? The regional forecast earlier (not that I take them as gospel) was suggesting 4 days. Do you think that is unlikely ? In an easterly, is it possible for convective snow showers from the north sea for more than a couple of days ?     

No chance that east Anglia will get hammered. Many times we are forecast as being in the best place, but snow avoids ea like the plague. Easterlies funnel around it, sliders too far south, occasionally in a direct northerly we may get 2"..  The setup shown looks good, but something will mess it up, it always does.  And that's being optimistic

[Battleground Snow]

The para is back! And out to 150 so far

[Man With Beard]

8 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

Your thoughts are for 2 days of snow for the east anglia region ? The regional forecast earlier (not that I take them as gospel) was suggesting 4 days. Do you think that is unlikely ? In an easterly, is it possible for convective snow showers from the north sea for more than a couple of days ?     

My personal view is Sunday and Monday will be the main event for E Anglia but no doubt there may be other snow. Just a guess!

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Was always going to be knife edge? Shouldn't be using that term for the best spell in several years really....Also the precip has been continually lack-luster since the outset for the south ao its still dreadfully frustrating. 

 

Unfortunately your location is fairly far SW, which is typically going to require one heck of a easterly to get the showers down there. I actually think there will be something for you guys that far down but you kinda have to accept that its less than somewhere like where I will be, and I will get less than those guys who are close to the Thames Estuary. 

Hopefully the cold digs in enough so that any LP that does try to come up will be forced to go into snow, thats always going to be your best chance closer to the coast further SW in these airflows, unless you can get little local streamers (which can happen from time to time)

[Mike Poole]

ECM T72 v UKMO

UKMO more diffuse over the pattern in the UK actually, otherwise similar across the piste.

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Was always going to be knife edge? Shouldn't be using that term for the best spell in several years really....Also the precip has been continually lack-luster since the outset for the south ao its still dreadfully frustrating. 

 

Don’t see the issue in using the term knife edge but never mind ,let’s just sit back and see how this pans out

[joggs]

29 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Bit of a rubbish GFS mean really for longevity of cold, it’s starting to look like a 3/4 day potential event, rather than the potential freeze suggested a few days ago. 

If you go by that model on one run. Trend?

It may be.

[NewEra21]

9 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

No chance that east Anglia will get hammered. Many times we are forecast as being in the best place, but snow avoids ea like the plague. Easterlies funnel around it, sliders too far south, occasionally in a direct northerly we may get 2"..  The setup shown looks good, but something will mess it up, it always does.  And that's being optimistic

GFS P says otherwise

[Sawel]

GFS 12z Parallel on Meteociel - very similar to all other output from 96hrs to 168 and then there's an attempted breakdown of sorts.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

If you go by that model on one run. Trend?

It may be.

Or it's just GFS blowing up the Atlantic low. If we can keep high pressure to the north then it's more likely the jet will stay south, prolonging our cold  

But, can't worry about that yet!

[Tim Bland]

Looking good ️

[ICE COLD]

Boom at T96

[snowice]

96ecm here comes the cold

[ICE COLD]

A closer look at T96 and very good

[londonblizzard]

Already colder uppers further south on ECM 12z compared to 0z on sunday!

Edited February 3, 2021 by londonblizzard

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM pretty much the same as the UKMO, however the lower thicknesses will certainly be a plus for shower development in central and eastern parts. -8c isotherm through near enough all of the U.K.

[Griff]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Boom at T96

Cold getting further left (I mean west ) on this run than UKMO 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96 v UKMO:

Notice the two lows to the southwest, one thing I’m increasingly starting to notice is that UKMO is reluctant to develop deep lows here, ECM a bit more, and GFS over the top.  I’m convinced that in this region, massively affecting the UK, the UKMO has it right.

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

Not looking good on the BBC weekly forecast that I just watched, rain monday for the south east, south of suffolk. cold uppers being mixed out. Snow only as far south as mid Suffolk. Easterly more of a south easterly, which also always seems to happen. I'm expecting a shift north as opposed to south this time. Hope I'm wrong though.

Tell me, how exactly did you get your username?

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, Mr_Pessimistic said:

This post hidden

Please feel free to use models we can discuss to back up your thoughts. If I or anyone else wants to know what the BBC has to say we can watch it.

whats your thoughts on these? 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Blessed Weather
Post in quote box off topic

[tight isobar]

ecm@96 hrs.. no issues here ... that is an amber warning shot if I’ve ever seen 1.. @souther= eastern England!!!!!

Edited February 3, 2021 by tight isobar