Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[ICE COLD]

It’s a boom  

[Chertseystreamer79]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hmmm, the mild sector there for Monday on EC, hope not a wintry mix/wet snow? Thurs 24th Feb '05 horror

 

In that raw wind.....no expert but I'd say snow

[tight isobar]

Ec @144 continues the flow @easterly and snow chances are bound... banger ecm 12z

[lorenzo]

Mild - what is this mild you speak of?

[Notty]

Disturbance in the flow next Tuesday

My head next week

[Captain Shortwave]

Yep there is a front across the south early next week that brings snow.

Cold well and truly back by day 6 for all.

 

As low as -12c with the potential to drag colder air in from the east whilst the Atlantic makes its move further west.

[Snowman.]

Just now, kold weather said:

Yes there is still a slight mild sector, and looking at the ECM 12z any precip in the SE does turn sleety/rainy for a brief time on Monday.

However, by that time most of the area has just had a cracking snow event already on this run, so we will take that on this run!

Snow to rain to snow?

Not the biggest fan but the next chart is very good so cant comeplain.

 

[DAVE_ALLEN]

Important to remember that winds blow in towards a LP centre so they wont follow the isobars lines exactly. There will be a more NE element to the wind direction as per the arrows. EA and SE looks promising based on that chart. 

[SLEETY]

Sub zero next week BOOM

[ICE COLD]

Closer look again T144 . Brass monkeys

[Zak M]

Is that a -12 I see there?!

[That ECM]

Bitter. 

[londonblizzard]

-11 uppers for london and northwards on tuesday!

[kold weather]

For those wondering what the ECM has snow wise, this is Monday morning:

You can see the effects of the milder air briefly across E.Anglia turning precip to rain. Lots os snow showers packing in further north and probably actually sustained snowfall as well.

That rain area will likely turn back to snow pretty quickly through Monday so no great concerns long term, maybe just a little annoying for a brief window.

More importantly, the ECM has a rather large amount of snow for most of the country at some point between Sunday-Monday.

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Mild - what is this mild you speak of?

850hpa being a few degrees higher over a small area, because people still think that’s the only factor that matters no matter how many times they’re told otherwise.

Edited February 3, 2021 by MattStoke

[DAVE_ALLEN]

One other thing.. The greater the snow coverage there is, the lower the overnight temps fall under clear skies  in these areas and this can in-turn influence yet colder temps in the lower atmosphere.

 

[Weathizard]

Very cold ECM but certainly looks like a brief spell of cold to very cold weather before the Atlantic moves in to me, much like the GFS mean.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Important to remember that winds blow in towards a LP centre so they wont follow the isobars lines exactly. There will be a more NE element to the wind direction as per the arrows. EA and SE looks promising based on that chart. 

Converage zones

[Cold Winter Night]

UKMO and ECM 144h side by side.

Both very cold at that timeframe, UKMO Easterly, ECM more of a SE component.
They handle the Atlantic differently.

I don't know what EC 168h will look like.

[Snowman.]

Just a reminder we're super into FI here. All 3 models handle things super differently next week.

  

[KTtom]

On 02/02/2021 at 16:39, KTtom said:

 

No idea what the quote is about?!

Anyway, 144, deep cold in place, winds slacken off a little, time for us westerners to get interested...just hop we get a good angle of attack and we dont get a tame end to this.

[tight isobar]

Ecm/UKMO are almost text book polar continental runs..@quite something!!!!!

Edited February 3, 2021 by tight isobar

[Eagle Eye]

Well that's certainly not marginal. 

[Drifter]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Very cold ECM but certainly looks like a brief spell of cold to very cold weather before the Atlantic moves in to me, much like the GFS mean.

Where did you manage to view the completed run? The Atlantic has just been rebuffed at its first attempt day 6/7. 

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Very cold ECM but certainly looks like a brief spell of cold to very cold weather before the Atlantic moves in to me, much like the GFS mean.

Attempt 1 - fails this time

Still 850s of -12 across parts of England, -13 across parts of EA.

Edited February 3, 2021 by Captain Shortwave