Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

hmmm, the mild sector there for Monday on EC, hope not a wintry mix/wet snow? Thurs 24th Feb '05 horror

 

[chionomaniac]

This is where the ECM and UKMO excel. The ECM may not be that great at picking a trend - well done to the GFS for that, but modelling in the 4-6 day timeframe is meat and drink to the ECM. So this run is another vital run in that timeframe.

[sheikhy]

Cmon guys whers the 120 hour chart!!!my peeps are slacking

[ICE COLD]

T120 bit more dodge in the se . But still ok . 

[Mapantz]

This is the model thread, NOT the BBC discussion thread!

Please use the appropriate forums to discuss that.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 v UKMO

Peas in a pod, have to choose, I like ECM profile to the north a bit better, and the trough into Italy better. 

[Snowman.]

Rather large 'mild' sector for the south.

 

Will be boomage at 144 tho. UKMO still better.

 

[snowice]

Isobars tightening snow showers 

[kold weather]

ECM just a shade further south with heavy snowfall across southern England on Sunday morning.

Fascinating Rain - snow event, we don't see them all that often developing like it does on the 12z ECM it has to be said.

 

[lorenzo]

Nice Tight Isobars on EC 96..

[sheikhy]

What a ripper of an ecm so far!!!!

[Howie]

I'm so confused as to what's causing that mild sector?? There's no south easterly element to the flow there? 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hmmm, the mild sector there for Monday on EC, hope not a wintry mix/wet snow? Thurs 24th Feb '05 horror

 

We are doing good when -5 and -6 from the east is a "mild sector"

[Drifter]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

T120 bit more dodge in the se . But still ok . 

Probably means there’s moisture involved though

[DAVE_ALLEN]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

T120 bit more dodge in the se . But still ok . 

How comes theres a warm sector without a warm front bringing it in ?

[Tim Bland]

This run starts the party earlier so that by late sat there is already an inch of snow for many areas from the easterly...looking forward to seeing what it shows 24hrs later!!

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

T120 bit more dodge in the se . But still ok . 

was always going to be something less blue introduced by that low - the question is can we can tell if  it has trended in coldies favoe from 00z run -

[jamesgold]

That ‘mild’ sector is still -5 for the south, I don’t think that’s too dodgy especially with surface cold if snow and ice has already happened in the weekend

[Snowman31]

Surely that mild sector would still be snow as winds from the east?

[Ben Sainsbury]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

We are doing good when -5 and -6 from the east is a "mild sector"

Exactly, don't understand why people are getting worried especially with a continental flow.

[Speedbird]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

hmmm, the mild sector there for Monday on EC, hope not a wintry mix/wet snow? Thurs 24th Feb '05 horror

 

Showing -4 uppers in a mostly insignificantly sized sector - hardly 'mild' and unlikely to have much of a bearing, if any, on precipitation type.

It should be all snow

[Snowman.]

With the 'mild sector' its really hard to gauge it due to how the ECM releases 24 snapshots.

I imagine it similar to the GFS.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

Rather large 'mild' sector for the south.

 

Will be boomage at 144 tho. UKMO still better.

 

Yes there is still a slight mild sector, and looking at the ECM 12z any precip in the SE does turn sleety/rainy for a brief time on Monday.

However, by that time most of the area has just had a cracking snow event already on this run, so we will take that on this run!

[Jason H]

Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Exactly, don't understand why people are getting worried especially with a continental flow.

This is what I was trying to point out earlier on. ECM very close to UKMO so far.

[londonblizzard]

Between sunday and monday: ECM's coldest day is sunday, UKMO's coldest day is monday.