Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Weather-history]

Bonkers ensemble. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Greenland blocking looks likely and matches up with recent phase 1 of MJO 

[Frosty.]

There are some extremely wintry GEFS 6z perturbations (for the time of year)..around Easter.. P30 for example would plunge the u k back into the depths of winter! ️  

[Sunny76]

7 hours ago, minus10 said:

Yes it does seem that the weather has been a bit more seasonal down here lately. Overall a colder winter and in particular i have noticed the delayed appearance of many of the spring flowers and those that are out staying out for longer in the cooler conditions. As a gardener i do not relish the thought of further frosts at this time of year however the onset of northerlies often mean you have crisp clearner air with good visibility and sunshine between  the showers (Must be particularly noticeable in scotland) . I often remember as a child in 60/70 s experiencing 'wintry' showers in April/May. Almost like chunks of ice falling from the sky!. Anyhow some warm weather to look forward to first hopefully before the onset of the colder air if it arrives. All in all very springlike....

It could well point towards a more thundery summer, with more severe longer lasting storms. After a colder winter, I would guess there's a higher chance of more unstable air masses, with chilly air still lingering and crashing into warmer air. Maybe that's why summer 1982 was so thundery, following the cold winter of 1981/82, and possibly why summers of 1981 and 80 were stormy.

However last summer did see an increase in thundery activity, despite some hit and miss affairs.

[PUTIN]

29 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

It could well point towards a more thundery summer, with more severe longer lasting storms. After a colder winter, I would guess there's a higher chance of more unstable air masses, with chilly air still lingering and crashing into warmer air. Maybe that's why summer 1982 was so thundery, following the cold winter of 1981/82, and possibly why summers of 1981 and 80 were stormy.

However last summer did see an increase in thundery activity, despite some hit and miss affairs.

Has it been a colder winter than average then, when all's said and done?

[The Northern Ramper]

6 hours ago, Timmytour said:

I don't care about Easter, I've got my fingers crossed for it being dry and warm in the gardens of English pubs on 12th April!

I’ve got a table booked for my birthday on the 14th, I’ll take 21 degrees and Sunny.

[Cloud 10]

Easter weekend's always seem to have an "anything goes"theme.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Griff]

Pretty charts none the less, chillier than most will be hoping for at this time of year  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

too early to be snow excited yet, my guess is high pressure will dominate early April

[Frosty.]

There are some insane eye popping GEFS 12z members!. .....could winter bite back with a vengeance..at EASTER ?...watch this space!  ️ 

I’d buy that for a dollar$$  

 

[damianslaw]

I'll wait for the ECM to churn out before commenting on early trends into Easter, but the theme from the models today is a cooling one, with heights set to pull in cold air from arctic source. Following the isobars on GFS the source is deep within the bowls of the arctic which at this time of year is only very slowly warming from it's cold base state in early March, hence why northerlies are so cold at this time of year.

[Guest]

Horrid GFS Ops giving some pretty maxes over the Easter weekend, although to be fair we'd be pretty unlucky to get lumbered with something like the Ops runs given its pretty much at the bottom of the pack (albeit a chilly pack) and stay cold for a pretty lengthy period. The first 20C of the year still some way off. 

[Griff]

I prefer the French charts... 

 Not sure if this is a oui or non  

[Griff]

What's the French for brrrrrrrrr? 

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, PUTIN said:

Has it been a colder winter than average then, when all's said and done?

Decidedly average would be my opinion.  The period Sept 21st to March 20th (projecting a mean 6.6C for March)  for 202/21 is in the colder half of this century's mean CET's but not far off the middle.

 

[Griff]

Just going to leave this here... 

[Frosty.]

And......we have (or at least briefly had) ..a HOT TOPIC   again following days / weeks of MEH..hardly anyone posting / caring!...I must say the ECM 12z op does become very cold later!...it’s not just the GFS / GEFS then!  ...eye popping stuff!

 

Edited March 24, 2021 by Jon Snow

[minus10]

Even for spring this is quite a chart

Talk about head to head of the airmasses....

[Howie]

7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Even for spring this is quite a chart

Talk about head to head of the airmasses....

Surely this will result in some very lively weather across Europe

[minus10]

5 minutes ago, Howie said:

Surely this will result in some very lively weather across Europe

I would imagine that if this was to verify a lot of rain would be on the cards along the active front if not some thunderstorms too..

[damianslaw]

ECM following suit - cold arctic flow by Good Friday, and possibly sustained throughout easter period. Met office also going for colder easter with wintry showers high ground north and east.. 

[Cloud 10]

Far to soon to be posting precip. charts....

 

[Snowboy111]

2 hours ago, Griff said:

What's the French for brrrrrrrrr? 

Il fait froid

 

about the only french I learnt at school

[feb1991blizzard]

18z GFS is a stonker as well, cold for the time of year definitely.

Edited March 24, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[feb1991blizzard]

heavy snow showers powering south.

 

Edited March 24, 2021 by feb1991blizzard