Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Mike Poole]

29 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

A few tweaks and it would of been a boom from me

The ECM // does it properly!

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

The ECM // does it properly!

Yes, that would do it and even the op would likely go on to upset quite a few! 

[Mike Poole]

So where are we now, re Easter and beyond?  

It looks nailed on for some kind of cold interlude at Easter or just after.  Clusters at T192-T240:

Well there are 5 of them, but from a UK point of view there’s little to separate them, Greenland block in all, then argue over the leftovers!

At this time of year, cold and snow are possible, but orientation of the block is crucial - we’ve already seen runs that deliver real cold  (ECM // 12z) but the margin is fine now we’re into mid spring.  

ECM clusters T264+:

Suggests cold drags in to mid April to be honest.  

Where is this coming from, well CFS AAM charts show a significant rise in the next week, which is probably reliable:

So a high latitude block is not a surprise.  Longer term the signal looks to fade.  

SSTs at the moment:

A mixed bag as far as any predictive capability for summer, just have to wait and see, for summer prospects I think I’d like this cold spell to be a short spell, but we will see...

 

 

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean / operational longer term shows there is scope for something unseasonably wintry..but the focus for now, and rightly so should be the big warm up early next week across southern u k when temperatures could soar into the low 20’s Celsius..maybe even 24c 75f could be reached next Tues / Wed across the s / se?...from a weather enthusiasts perspective, the duality of spring ( large temperature swings ) could make the next few weeks very interesting with something for everyone!..

Edited March 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Would be interesting from a nature perspective. With the depth of cold and low dew points that have been shown on recent output, I'd expect emerging leaves etc to be frostbitten and regrowth might be postponed until later into May? Such anomalies are always intriguing!

You seem fascinated by potential frost damage- your predictions of damage to the daffodils during the February spell were wide of the mark.

The daffodils were thriving around here only days after that cold spell finished.

Edited March 26, 2021 by Scorcher
Grammar error

[stodge]

Evening all

The Easter Chill still seems on the cards tonight.

That's T+192 from GFS Control, ECM and GFS OP. UKM perhaps not quite there yet but plenty of serious northern blocking to begin the new month. I love my long-fetch NE'lies as you know and ECM offers a very decent long fetch N'ly chart after T+192 but it heads the HP to pull further back NW. GFS OP keeps it chilly through FI but the question will be how quickly the HP will sink south and re-introduce westerlies. Oddly enough, the ECM, for all it is the slowest to deliver, looks to have a bit of longevity about it.

[Allseasons-Si]

If anything this evenings day ten EPS is colder than this mornings and now follows the gefs in terms of the position of +ve heights to the west and -ve heights to our east and south,a perfect recipe to getting that northerly plunge of cold air

500mb/mslp and 850's...

cpc also...

12z gefs ens.

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

A Sneeky warm up next week for some?..but the overall trend and talking point  is how cold it's going to get next week...!

[Griff]

Similar to the 12z, presenting the 18z at 144

[Griff]

And at 180, variation on a theme

 

[Griff]

Your northerly is now an easterly 

[ribster]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

You seem fascinated by potential frost damage- your predictions of damage to the daffodils during the February spell were wide of the mark.

The daffodils were thriving around here only days after that cold spell finished.

Daffs thriving or otherwise, the outlook appears to be a brief warm up early next week, then a significant cool down over Easter, especially relative to the early part of the week. As it happens, there are Daffs here still not in flower, they may decide to wait until after Easter...

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Griff said:

Your northerly is now an easterly 

NE'ly incoming- taking the coldest track pretty much

[Griff]

Reload gives this  

 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

NE'ly incoming- taking the coldest track pretty much

Would do it the trick  

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

You seem fascinated by potential frost damage- your predictions of damage to the daffodils during the February spell were wide of the mark.

The daffodils were thriving around here only days after that cold spell finished.

Give over-

I'm interested in meteorological anomalies full stop. Extremes at either end. As for daffs, I've seen fewer in bloom here than previous years? Though far removed from 2013. I seem to remember more fascination with brown, tinder dry grass by people in 2018! People were lapping it up, saying how 'Mediterranean' it looked!

Edited March 26, 2021 by CreweCold

[Griff]

Have the pubs reopened? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Would do it the trick  

It's a beauty

[damianslaw]

24 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's a beauty

A cold lovers dream, perfect synoptics, if it was January, but perhaps not to everyone's taste in April.. government will be pleased or may be not they've waited until the 12th when looking at such charts! Trace isobars back and its classic cross polar flow, role reversal, doesn't get any more anomalous.

Edited March 26, 2021 by damianslaw

[Timmytour]

38 minutes ago, Griff said:

Your northerly is now an easterly 

Easterly Sunday!

[Northernlights]

7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Easterly Sunday!

My birthday not a rare event over the decades. 

[mpkio2]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A cold lovers dream, perfect synoptics, if it was January, but perhaps not to everyone's taste in April.. government will be pleased or may be not they've waited until the 12th when looking at such charts! Trace isobars back and its classic cross polar flow, role reversal, doesn't get any more anomalous.

I have to agree. I don't wanna be pessimistic but I hate when the models show these kinds of setups that are perfect for one part of the year and materialize at the wrong time of the year instead. Like this setup is perfect for the winter (Looking at sub-below temps and ice and snow), but we get it now in April? I just can't help but feel bittersweet. Like got the right pattern, but its all way too late.

I would rather the models show a long pro-longed warm pattern now

[minus10]

Interesting that the GFS 18z has cold air over the uk for the first 10 days of April with the minus ten 850s getting down to the south on two or three occasions. 

 

This would be quite some cold spell if it verifies. As others have said if it had been in January or February we would have been looking at a pretty severe spell. As it is it could still be very lively with increased solar radiation...

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by minus10

[MP-R]

The GFS has got January written all over it tonight - northerlies to easterlies then a breakdown from the west in outer FI with the Atlantic steamrolling in. Must remember it's going to be April next week... 

[MildCarlilse]

5 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

A few tweaks and it would of been a boom from me

‘Would have’.