Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Guest]

Wow some big differences through the middle of the next week on timing and strength of the initial cold push from the north. ECM extremely mild through the early part of week and extending warmth right into Wednesday with highs of 22C around London, you'd say 23/24C wouldn't be off the cards, with 20C as far north as Leeds. By the same time on Wed GFS already has the cold air in fully over the country. Places in the north midlands @ 12Z on Wednesday are 15C colder on GFS than ECM at the same time. Looks like GFS has places like Stoke around 2-3C while ECM is up at nearly 20C...

GEM hangs on to milder conditions until Thursday/Friday and UKMO doesn't yet look overly colder at T144. At the moment GFS thankfully seems overly progressive in dragging down the cold early on Wednesday, Thursday or Friday seems more realistic now (hopefully as I'm playing golf Thursday morning). Some of the GEM ensembles dont even bring in the cold at all an idea seriously not back up the GFS Ensembles which is notably cold for 6-7days from the start of April. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

The warmth for Monday/Tuesday has been cranked up a notch.

Monday 15:00

Tuesday 15:00

 

All depends on cloud cover - real chance of a 20C on Monday and 25C on Tuesday if we get the best case scenario.

One to keep an eye on for all you lucky people in those areas.

Have a good weekend everyone! 

Given the lack of warmth and a really quite unremarkable airmass its really quite shocking we could be knocking on the door of the March record. Dont think anything higher than 22-23C has been recorded in March in my life time (42years)

[Frosty.]

 

 

Seriously guys, how could I possibly overlook these charts from the Gfs 0z operational???..slaps my wrist, I’m so angry with myself!!! ...507 dam in early April, even in Scotland would be quite exceptional?  

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Scorcher]

39 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Given the lack of warmth and a really quite unremarkable airmass its really quite shocking we could be knocking on the door of the March record. Dont think anything higher than 22-23C has been recorded in March in my life time (42years)

The ECM does show a very warm air mass for the time of year though- less impressive from the GFS.

I believe 23.6C was the highest temperature recorded in March 2012.

Could be a fairly notable warm spell for March, which very few people are mentioning due to the horrid prospect of the northerly afterwards.

 

[NewEra21]

I thought I was off of this forum until October/November. But what can I say, this brought me back. Impressive!

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The ECM does show a very warm air mass for the time of year though- less impressive from the GFS.

I believe 23.6C was the highest temperature recorded in March 2012.

Could be a fairly notable warm spell for March, which very few people are mentioning due to the horrid prospect of the northerly afterwards.

 

Just weeched through the BBC app thingie: 18C, Monday and Tuesday, and around 10 for the subsequent foreseeable... Pretty awful really?

[Frosty.]

 

I’m seriously liking where the ECM 0z operational is heading longer term!...this is for the coldies..obviously?    

 

Edited March 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[mb018538]

As stated by others this morning - ECM shows a blast of very warm weather for the first 3 days of next week. Maybe 18c Monday, 20-21c Tuesday, and 22/23c possible Wednesday.



ARPEGE only out as far as Monday, but shows 18c and clear skies:



Enjoy the warm weather while it lasts, as we will be digging out the thermals by the end of the week!

 

[minus10]

Yes as has been stated the 0z ecm has extended the warm spell with the potential for pretty high temps.

However it then has a powerhouse northerly at the end resulting from a substantial block over greenland into the atlantic. The term screaming northerly comes to mind. 

Be interesting to see how this plays out. Will the cold keep being pushed back but will it also increase in intensity when it arrives? Or will it evolve into something much less potent?. Certainly interesting model watching currently, not least for gardeners and growers...

Edited March 26, 2021 by minus10

[Frosty.]

57 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Just weeched through the BBC app thingie: 18C, Monday and Tuesday, and around 10 for the subsequent foreseeable... Pretty awful really?

I agree Ed, 10c would be vile..if we are going to see a northerly like the ECM / Gfs / GEFS is showing, for me it has to be the most potent arctic blast possible for early April, anything else is a waste of time..I would rather see a prolonged warm spell than days of 10c!   ..it’s all or nothing for me!

Edited March 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Tim Bland]

2 hours ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all

The warmth for Monday/Tuesday has been cranked up a notch.

Monday 15:00

Tuesday 15:00

 

All depends on cloud cover - real chance of a 20C on Monday and 25C on Tuesday if we get the best case scenario.

One to keep an eye on for all you lucky people in those areas.

Have a good weekend everyone! 

Weds also looks good on the ECM with 20c in the south east.

[Frigid]

This year so far has 2012 written all over it. Very cold to very mild in February and  Taste of spring at end of March before a potential cool April. Interesting 

 

[Jordan S]

Yes it is likely to become quite warm for southern and eastern parts on monday and tuesday

Upto 16-19c on monday and most likely 20-21c on tuesday for some parts but 22-23c is a possibility locally..

The temperature gradient on this chart looks exaggerated over England and Wales, and would seem as though around 30c is potentially being reached and ofcourse this is a similar colour gradient to how most models have at around that temperature.

Some very high rainfall totals likely for western Scotland over the weekend likely lasting at times through Monday but then possibly into tuesday, spells of rain moving up and down similar areas.

Over 200mm is a possibility as for example the Icon shows..

though more widely in this area 100-150mm is very likely in a few places.. northern wales and more especially northern England potentially seeing upto around 80mm.

The ecmwf may be showing higher than likely temperatures for wednesday, temperatures below 20c  15-18c seems more likely although the Ecmwf may be correct with wednesday.

Edited March 26, 2021 by jordan smith

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

Yes it is likely to become quite warm for southern and eastern parts on monday and tuesday

Upto 16-19c on monday and most likely 20-21c on tuesday for some parts but 22-23c is a possibility locally..

The temperature gradient on this chart looks exaggerated over England and Wales, and would seem as though 30c is potentially being reached and ofcourse this is similar colouring to how most models have as the 30c figure.. 

Some very high rainfall totals likely for western Scotland over the weekend likely lasting at times through Monday but then possibly into tuesday, spells of rain moving up and down similar areas.

Over 200mm is a possibility as for example the Icon shows..

though more widely in this area 100-150mm is very likely in a few places.. northern wales and more especially northern England potentially seeing upto around 80mm.

The ecmwf may be showing higher than likely temperatures for wednesday, temperatures below 20c  15-18c seems more likely although the Ecmwf may be correct with wednesday.

Thanks, Jordan... It's good to see yet another early build-up of heat, down around the Med: another summer of potentially very-hot plumes beckons?

[Guest]

The GFS 06Z is ridiculously cold for early April and has several shots reinforcing the northerly push. But at first its still MASSIVELY at odds with the ECM run this morning with the aggressive cool down through Wednesday. GFS has temps in the home counties of just 4-6C through the middle of Wednesday while ECM had temps up at 20-22C. Clearly some big timing issues. After that its an attempt at a very unwanted winter wonderland, GFS gives 4-6cm of laying snow on Easter Sunday morning in parts of the south, not to mention an enormous blizzard in the Northern Ireland dumping 30+c of snow the following week. All pretty ridiculous but there's certainly backing from its ensembles, hopefully this is just GFS going on one!!

[The Northern Ramper]

59 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The GFS 06Z is ridiculously cold for early April and has several shots reinforcing the northerly push. But at first its still MASSIVELY at odds with the ECM run this morning with the aggressive cool down through Wednesday. GFS has temps in the home counties of just 4-6C through the middle of Wednesday while ECM had temps up at 20-22C. Clearly some big timing issues. After that its an attempt at a very unwanted winter wonderland, GFS gives 4-6cm of laying snow on Easter Sunday morning in parts of the south, not to mention an enormous blizzard in the Northern Ireland dumping 30+c of snow the following week. All pretty ridiculous but there's certainly backing from its ensembles, hopefully this is just GFS going on one!!

In normal circumstances you would dismiss the Gfs vs the Ecm but not with pressure around Greenland. This is a strong area for the GFS in a period of the year more conducive for high level blocking.

[StormChaseUK]

Could the cold be overplayed by the models?  I find it hard to believe it will be the coldest and warmest March all in one week.

 

 

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Frigid said:

This year so far has 2012 written all over it. Very cold to very mild in February and  Taste of spring at end of March before a potential cool April. Interesting 

 

Hope it doesn't follow 2012 now, April to August was a shocker, barely any warmth apart from late May, tons of rain. Awful. The autumn was good though, mixed with a fair bit of cold sunny weather. 

[Griff]

This seems almost soon  

GFS 144

[Griff]

Ohhhh you tease, naughty GFS, where's @MATTWOLVES?

 

[Griff]

 

 

[Griff]

The reload could be more potent  

[mb018538]

GFS day 4/5

 

UKMO day 4/5

 

Looks like we’ve got issues here. Very different day 5 charts!

[Griff]

Just for fun, fairly consistent with previous run... 

Needless to say, don't @ me if it completely changes

[Allseasons-Si]

Great charts from the gfs if it's cold and possible wintry/snow showers you are after,...like me (i wouldn't mind one last blast)...

but the UKMO says no and i would love the UKMO to come off TBF ,...winter can wait until next,...well,...winter

144.

if the gfs was to come off then there would be plenty of convective showers about in an unstable north to NE wind with maybe some thunder snow

lets see where the other models go for the rest of the day.

Edited March 26, 2021 by Allseasons-si