Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.

[Guest]

Was hoping to sneak a bonus decent day out down here tomorrow however I'm rapidly losing confidence in that hope!

[reef]

Already 20.0C here and its only just solar noon. Looks like our March record will be broken for the second day in succession.

Edited March 31, 2021 by reef

[Man With Beard]

22.6C in Weybourne. 24 or 25C in reach, then

[Djdazzle]

A desperately poor forecast for today when compared to the reality.

Can’t get it right 12 hours out - and to think there are those who believe in long range forecasts!

[Scorcher]

17 hours ago, MP-R said:

 

Personally, I've always thought spikes of warmth and heat in spring bode better for the summer than prolonged above average temperatures. Think 2018 vs 2020. The heatwave in April 2018 was brief, whereas last year saw much more prolonged warmth with cool/cold spikes between.

I agree with this- I've always thought the same. The years with great summers often seem to have short sharp notably warm spells in spring. Mainly between late March and mid May.

2003, 2006, 2018, 1995 and to some extent 2013 all had those spells.

In 2003 it was that spell in mid April. It was then rather unremarkable until late May. 2006 had a notable hot spell in early May with nothing notable before. 2018 had the mid April spell in an otherwise cool month. 1995 had short warm/hot spells in April and early May interspersed with some much colder weather.

2013 had a very brief but notable warm spell in April only days after some exceptional cold.

As you say, the more homogeneously warm springs don't often seem to lead onto great summers. Certainly not in recent times.

[knocker]

Shouldn't moan too much about today

[Mr Frost]

54 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

A desperately poor forecast for today when compared to the reality.

Can’t get it right 12 hours out - and to think there are those who believe in long range forecasts!

Indeed - was hoping the usual London hotspots would break the all time March record. (25.6C)

Still great stuff elsewhere of course with sunshine and high temperatures.

No other area really has a chance though at the record - can’t see anywhere officially getting above yesterday’s temperature! (24.5C)

Unless Kew Gardens, Heathrow, London City ect ect delivers the goods later...not looking great currently.

 

It is all my fault - my aunt lives down in London...told her last night expect 25/26C degrees today. 
 

Edit: @Scorcher 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Mr Frost

[Guest]

Oh dear todays forecast goes from fail to utter disaster, Its actually drizzling here now, in fact theres quite a large area of precip over southern England stretching up to London. 

I think the thing that bugs me the most is that in instances like this the Meto will completely ignore there fact they're had a mare! 

[Scorcher]

4 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Indeed - was hoping the usual London hotspots would break the all time March record. (25.6C)

Still great stuff elsewhere of course with sunshine and high temperatures.

No other area really has a chance though at the record - can’t see anywhere officially getting above yesterday’s temperature! (24.5C)

Unless Kew Gardens, Heathrow, London City ect ect delivers the goods later...not looking great currently.

 

It is all my fault - my aunt lives down in London...told her last night expect 25/26C degrees today. 

I wouldn't give on Weybourne yet...it updates every hour so could well get close to yesterday 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

I wouldn't give on Weybourne yet...it updates every hour so could well get close to yesterday 

Doubt it, cloud will start increasing there very shortly. 

[reef]

Up to 21.2C now so another 0.6C above the record set yesterday which itself was 0.4C above the previous record set in 2012!

 

[Mr Frost]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

Shouldn't moan too much about today

Hope you have the Winter woolies ready for Monday mate - very cold Spring day in the SW.
 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Mr Frost

[damianslaw]

37 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I agree with this- I've always thought the same. The years with great summers often seem to have short sharp notably warm spells in spring. Mainly between late March and mid May.

2003, 2006, 2018, 1995 and to some extent 2013 all had those spells.

In 2003 it was that spell in mid April. It was then rather unremarkable until late May. 2006 had a notable hot spell in early May with nothing notable before. 2018 had the mid April spell in an otherwise cool month. 1995 had short warm/hot spells in April and early May interspersed with some much colder weather.

2013 had a very brief but notable warm spell in April only days after some exceptional cold.

As you say, the more homogeneously warm springs don't often seem to lead onto great summers. Certainly not in recent times.

Perhaps an indication of a more abnormal base state going into summer, warm brief shots indicative of a more amplified flow, meridional jetstream profile, with alternating cold shots. Lengthier warm weather in spring normally symptomatic of a stable azores high influence and mild westerly/souhwesterly, come summer the westerlies take over. Springs 1995, 2003 and 2006 especially April brought meridional flow, followedby very good summers overall.

April 87, 11 and 17 had high pressure sat overhead followed by poor summers. 

2018 the warmth arrived in late spring, so dont categorise in same league as the three above. 2020 April warmth came courtesy of heights direct above as well. 

 

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Hope you have the Winter woolies ready for Monday mate - very cold Spring day in the SW.
 

Yes indeed. I warned all my friends a few days ago to enjoy this week

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Hope you have the Winter woolies ready for Monday mate - very cold Spring day in the SW.
 

Based on todays efforts they probably left a two of front of the numbers.......

[Weather-history]

19 hours ago, MP-R said:

.

Personally, I've always thought spikes of warmth and heat in spring bode better for the summer than prolonged above average temperatures. Think 2018 vs 2020. The heatwave in April 2018 was brief, whereas last year saw much more prolonged warmth with cool/cold spikes between.

May 2018 was a warm and exceptionally sunny month. 

Edited March 31, 2021 by Weather-history

[Andy Bown]

This has got to be the funniest time of year for what people wear. 
 

Plenty warm enough for t-shirt and shorts (as per myself, a few other men and a few women plus other women in dresses) , yet other people on the school run, both sexes, are wearing thick winter coats!

[Scorcher]

6 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

This has got to be the funniest time of year for what people wear. 
 

Plenty warm enough for t-shirt and shorts (as per myself, a few other men and a few women plus other women in dresses) , yet other people on the school run, both sexes, are wearing thick winter coats!

You can always tell the people that pay no attention to the weather forecast! I've noticed the same here over the past couple of days. 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

May 2018 was a warm and exceptionally sunny month. 

Indeed it was. I was referring more to March and April.

2018 was perhaps one of the few good Mays that was also followed by a good summer overall.

[mb018538]

Think today is going to go down as one of the worst forecasts I’ve ever had here. To get it so badly wrong even on the morning of the forecast is pretty bad for professional organisations like the BBC/MetO.

[markyo]

1 hour ago, Andy Bown said:

This has got to be the funniest time of year for what people wear. 
 

Plenty warm enough for t-shirt and shorts (as per myself, a few other men and a few women plus other women in dresses) , yet other people on the school run, both sexes, are wearing thick winter coats!

Been in a T shirt and shorts all over the last 12 months.....very boring dress really, i don't feel the cooling benefit of shorts on a day like today, been in them all winter! Though i am dreading the up coming season, for me the worst time of year, i hate it with a passion. Just draining.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

3 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

A desperately poor forecast for today when compared to the reality.

Can’t get it right 12 hours out - and to think there are those who believe in long range forecasts!

And Inaccuweather is the worst one of them all.

[reef]

We hit 21.2C in the end, so its beaten the 2012 record by a whole degree.

The wind has just changed from SW to NE along with a 3C drop in about 20mins, so that's the end of that for us. Quite a spell for March though, the first time we've had two consecutive 20C+ days.

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Think today is going to go down as one of the worst forecasts I’ve ever had here. To get it so badly wrong even on the morning of the forecast is pretty bad for professional organisations like the BBC/MetO.

so may I ask what was the forecast please? It was correct for here, not too far from you.

[Man With Beard]

Just now, johnholmes said:

so may I ask what was the forecast please? It was correct for here, not too far from you.

Full blue skies I believe.

Interesting that knocker posted charts forecasting a lot of moisture in the air, suggests what happened today was always going to be a possibility.