Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

[AWD]

Looks like a direct line roughly from Bristol to Newquay could be the focal point for continuous cell development and excessive rainfall throughout the remainder of the day, for the SW specific threat.

You can see on the radar it's that line where cell development is happening most.

Edited July 3, 2021 by AWD

[Peachy]

Some nice breaks in the clouds in the Midlands now and warming up nicely. 

No longer a matter of if but more a matter of when

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Main two areas for significant activity I’ve highlighted on XC weather. Parts of EA, Lincs in particular and E Midlands where surface flow appears to be backed SE, giving rise to the best chance of any possible supercellular activity. Diurnal heating seems to be taking its time however in quite a few areas here.

SW, NE Cornwall, Devon into Somerset for persistent training possible due to strong convergence. 

Good luck all

[sparky1972]

3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Main two areas for significant activity I’ve highlighted on XC weather. Parts of EA, Lincs in particular and E Midlands where surface flow appears to be backed SE, giving rise to the best chance of any possible supercellular activity. Diurnal heating seems to be taking its time however in quite a few areas here.

SW, NE Cornwall, Devon into Somerset for persistent training possible due to strong convergence. 

Good luck all

not very warm here at all under this low cloud.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

not very warm here at all under this low cloud.

That’s my main concern for today, too much low cloud cover suppressing sufficient temperatures and energy. We shall see. 

[The PIT]

A few flashes down to the south west so convective outlook gets a hit with that one. Dull  with a drizzle shower just moving in here. Chilly for the time of year although it doesn't feel like when you go outside.

[Ciderwithrosie]

Lovely rumbles of thunder and saw a flash of lightning in Taunton . Wind picked up as well . The band of showers looks like it's heading towards us too . 

[SilverWolf]

34 minutes ago, AWD said:

Looks like a direct line roughly from Bristol to Newquay could be the focal point for continuous cell development and excessive rainfall throughout the remainder of the day, for the SW specific threat.

You can see on the radar it's that line where cell development is happening most.

Hi, very IMBY question, if this is where storms kick off, how might it look for me in Stroud later in the day? Will they brew and move towards me? Everything seems to be moving NE. Thanks! 

[ChezWeather]

First signs of some cells firing up around the South Midlands 

[Ciderwithrosie]

A really heavy downpour here , with flashes and rumbles as well . The sun pops out and heats the air setting off more rain and crashes . 

At least I don't have to water the garden tonight! Sweet peas will love it . 

Ooh another rumble lovely . 

[legritter]

Hi gang ,im on west mendip, things are kicking off to my south and south west .just saw a beauty of o thunder head, grabbed my camera  and by the time i changed the batteries it had dropped some realy black clouds .i will await ,it looks like a breeding ground out there ,and very slow moving ,cheers gang and hope many of you get a storm today .

[Norfolk Sheep]

34 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

That’s my main concern for today, too much low cloud cover suppressing sufficient temperatures and energy. We shall see. 

Back.to a blanket of cloud now, the breaks were brief. More breezy and less humid. Shame!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Interestingly, today reminds me very much of the 28th July 2005. Very very similar conditions, with a murky humid easterly with low cloud preceding a sudden rise in CAPE, and development of storms to the S, heading North. The timing just seems a bit later on this occasion. By just after lunchtime on the day of El Brumo, the sky rapidly cleared and gave way to a supercell by 14:00 in Peterborough, and we would be seeing the development of the Birmingham EF2-3!! I don’t think we will quite see them conditions today. There’s still a few hours of peak heating to go though. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Some fairly explosive convection taking place to my south-west and also some deep convection appearing to my NW/N now too.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Sat24 is your friend today (I’ve tried to highlight the areas of most interest but be aware the cloud breaks fill rather quickly and will move NEwards over time)

[JonGill]

Frequent rumbling from my E/ESE here.  Had some some extremely heavy rain earlier as well.

[mike5900]

my lightning detector gone off .

[AWD]

Frequent sferics detected within the cells heading up the M5 towards the Bristol/Bath area now;

Those enjoying a fish & chip dinner on the beach at Weston Super Mare are going to get wet soon!

[80sWeather]

Suns been out here for a couple of hours and feels really juicy.

Edited July 3, 2021 by 80sWeather

[JonGill]

Radar at 1455hrs shows a line of cells from from just east of Taunton northwards to just to the west of Clevedon.

[It's a Philcast]

Things bubbling up looking at the heads into warwickshire area  (picture) & things starting to form right here in Worcestershire

[Jamie M]

 

[Norfolk Sheep]

Oh my, convective drizzle...

[Dangerous55019]

Lots of grey crud here.

The sun has tried to break through and when it does, oh boy does it feel juicy! ?… But them the grey infill returns. 
 

We just need this grey low cloud to clear off now so that things can start to brew up properly. ?⛈

[TJS1998Tom]

I feel like a lot of this grey cloud isn't going to do much favour today, in North Yorkshire now and it looks like it tries to brighten up but then begins to cloud over again. Thought something might have started in the Midlands by now, unless it's delayed back till tonight