model discussion Model output discussion 11th July onwards

[mb018538]

Looking like a very quiet spell of weather is looming once we get through Wednesday. High pressure over or very close to the UK, so expect some chilly mornings and some pleasant afternoons in the high teens. Only exception may be the far NW where frontal activity may bring some more rain.

 

[Methuselah]

Yes, the cold air 'oop there' looks rather disturbing (to me!) and gives credence to all those suggesting a 'front-loaded' winter. But, do we really want to see 'useless' cold in October? Patience Padawan!

    

    

    

I guess I hope it's another of those 'here today, gone tomorrow' scenarios!

And, just to spread some more confusion on the subject:

    

 

[johnholmes]

Sunday 2 October 500 mb anomaly update

Ec shows a marked change from the Friday issue=a broad trough around 20-30W is the main feature with contour flow through this, quite strong over and close by the uk but almost no flow in the Iceland and Greenland areas

Now deepish closed upper low s of Greenland and ridging in the contours from azores area into the uk, w’ly e of uk then troughing into italy.

Noaa  also shows changes from Friday. In the far west, the ridge-trough off western n America is now a less marked trough, (similar position) and almost flat w’ly over the pacific (largish +ve heights in this). Small signal of contour ridging eastern Canada with large +ve heights in this area. (Mainlt due I would suggest to the almost total absence of the ‘normal’ main vortex. This shows as a broadish trough just se of Greenland into a sw’ly flow into the uk with slight contour ridging ne of Iceland with another largish+ve anomly within this.

 

So the two models, in the uk area, are fairly different, one ridging and one with a broad sw flow. Interesting, the ec output from another source, see below the usual two charts shows the upper and surface ridging which the synoptic models (EC and GFS keep putting out).

So which outputs will turn out to be correct? Usually NOAA lead the way, about 8 out of 10 times, but neither the 6-10 nor the 8-14 show much indication of uk area ridging at 500 mb. The 8-14 possibly the first suggestion over the Norwegian region?

I watch the next 2-3 days with interest!

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

[Frosty.]

Well, the way I see it… ..whatever model is right?..the Gfs 6z operational continues with a strongly anticyclonic theme (beyond, not to get too technical..the current green snot.. ) the generally settled weather continues until near the end of the 6z run, the models so far today, for the most part,  trend settled / anticyclonic for some considerable time despite what the NOAA shows, could the NOAA be wrong?…heaven forbid!!!! 

Edited October 3, 2021 by jon snow

[Methuselah]

32 minutes ago, jon snow said:

Well, the way I see it… ..whatever model is right?..the Gfs 6z operational continues with a strongly anticyclonic theme (beyond, not to get too technical..the current green snot.. ) the generally settled weather continues until near the end of the 6z run, the models so far today, for the most part,  trend settled / anticyclonic for some considerable time despite what the NOAA shows, could the NOAA be wrong?…heaven forbid!!!! 

Indeed, Karl: The anomaly charts are often a better deal than the four-times-a-day operational runs. But, in times like these, when new 'signals' pop up out of nowhere (only to vanish just as quickly) surely even they must struggle?

Edited October 3, 2021 by Ed Stone

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Indeed, Karl: The anomaly charts are often a better deal than the four-times-a-day operational runs. But, in times like these, when new 'signals' pop up out of nowhere (only to vanish just as quickly) surely even they must struggle?

Indeed Ed.. I mean Pete! … I had this misconception that the NOAA (anomalies) was perfect, this could be about to be shattered into a trillion pieces!  

[Frosty.]

First out of the 12z blocks is the ICON…is it perfect?…Nein…is it terrible?…Nein.. I would say it’s nicht schlecht!? !  

 

 

Edited October 3, 2021 by jon snow

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T144:

Settled for some time from there I would suggest.  Quite extraordinary NH profile.

[Methuselah]

GFS 12Z at T+138's nae bad:    

[Frosty.]

This is a pretty good GEFS 12z mean chart for Friday if you’re not a fan of green snot? ️ ? 

[Summer Sun]

New UKMO model out on wetterzentrale it now includes UK only charts along with cloud cover, 10m wind and 2m temp

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ukmhd&var=1&time=120&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24

 

[Frosty.]

It gets even better!… I can dig it..wonder what the NOAA shows?…? 

Edited October 3, 2021 by jon snow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, jon snow said:

It gets even better!… I can dig it?  

but before all this is Tuesday, dry for many, but my location stuck under the wrap around all day, could rival the washouts of 24/25 Sept '12 and 20-21 July '07

[Methuselah]

    

I can dig it. I can really dig it!   

[Mike Poole]

37 minutes ago, jon snow said:

It gets even better!… I can dig it..wonder what the NOAA shows?…? 

Yes, move forward to T240, and while a 1030 high on the mean is nailed on 1025 isn’t bad.

I note that on the mean the (possibly) cut off low in the Atlantic is not very pronounced at all, suspect that might be variations in position of this feature flailing about with nothing to drive it.  Which is how I see the rest of October with regards to Atlantic weather.  

Edited October 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Uncertainty]

42 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

New UKMO model out on wetterzentrale it now includes UK only charts along with cloud cover, 10m wind and 2m temp

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=20&model=ukmhd&var=1&time=120&run=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24

 

Oof yes thanks for this SS

How about that for a U.K. high at 168?

Question is… where next? Would rather see it head NE than NW this early in the piece.
The former would put early pressure on the Strat vortex, the latter wouldn’t give us snow.

I never want it to head SE by the way!

[Mike Poole]

25 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Oof yes thanks for this SS

How about that for a U.K. high at 168?

Question is… where next? Would rather see it head NE than NW this early in the piece.
The former would put early pressure on the Strat vortex, the latter wouldn’t give us snow.

I never want it to head SE by the way!

I’m not sure where I want the high to head, to be honest!  It is difficult this, if the consensus is on our best chance of cold is from a proper front loaded winter, you’d want the pressure patterns to be located such as to develop cold pools to our east and northeast now.  If, however, it is felt that some patience is needed and a SSW is the best bet, you’d want the high pressure in a position to weaken the vortex.

I think the vortex really looks under threat early doors anyway, but I’m uncomfortable about getting the right synoptics in December and no cold air.  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still this though, unusual chart? assume showing write off here

[Mike Poole]

ECM T96, and the settled spell incoming here too.  What I find intriguing is the clear separation between the developing vortex and anything at all lurking in the Atlantic.  Very odd, this time of year. 

T144 - definitely now a cut off low, the UK is missing out on the autumn action, good thing or bad, time will tell…

Edited October 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

JMA T264 to add to the above, I can’t see how this can turn unsettled again in any meaningful way for the rest of the month to be honest, which is saying something in mid Autumn:

(Siberian high and Aleutian low to boot!).

Edited October 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

Looking at tonight’s ECMWF 12z ensemble mean, I think a prolonged anticyclonic spell is a slam dunk!  

[Singularity]

While the UK weather turns quiet and not the most interesting from midweek, it certainly is interesting to see an enormous wedge of high pressure setting up UK-NW Asia. Think of it as kneeing the polar vortex in the nether regions while its trying to find its feet.

[mb018538]

 

Very quiet outlook with high pressure in charge. This doesn't exclude some areas from rain though as frontal activity at times affects the north and west in particular. 
End of this week in particular looks very mild with temperatures on the 00z ECM/UKV at 20-21c in numerous locations.

[Downburst]

This High pressure is certainly welcome, still enjoying the sun when out and about and as far as I am concerned the longer that lasts into Autumn the better. Just a little worried that although it will be dry, warm for the time period, will it be a sunny High? Don't have much knowledge of the ECM Cloud Cover charts, but I believe there may be a fair bit of moisture given the source air and time of year, hence maybe high level cloud. One to watch as I believe night time temps are high, suggesting cloud cover.

[Atmogenic]

3 hours ago, Downburst said:

This High pressure is certainly welcome, still enjoying the sun when out and about and as far as I am concerned the longer that lasts into Autumn the better. Just a little worried that although it will be dry, warm for the time period, will it be a sunny High? Don't have much knowledge of the ECM Cloud Cover charts, but I believe there may be a fair bit of moisture given the source air and time of year, hence maybe high level cloud. One to watch as I believe night time temps are high, suggesting cloud cover.

I hope not, August gave enough overcast skies within one single month, we deserve some extra bit of warmth though September was pretty good to be fair