Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Believe me a westerly and south westerly in the NW quadrant of the UK makes you want to hibernate! 

Likewise in south while it is drier… what good is endless cloud.

[RJBingham]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Each to their own I guess. Polar air in winter is my preference, clear skies and sunshine. The westerly and more so south westerly just brings low cloud grey and misery - especially early winter to these parts. Vitamin D is what we need this time of year. Today marks the last of the very mild ones, polar air is sweeping in, and I'm happy!

You won't get any Vitamin D from the sun this time of year, not enough UVB for your skin to make it. 

[keithlucky]

WEATHER Wars.With the Met office forecasting a mild winter,BBC colder than average winter with plenty of snow around due to a week polar votex the 2 big major weather organisation need to sort this out due to the energy firms requiring some guidance .

[Frostbite1980]

6 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

WEATHER Wars.With the Met office forecasting a mild winter,BBC colder than average winter with plenty of snow around due to a week polar votex the 2 big major weather organisation need to sort this out due to the energy firms requiring some guidance .

Energy firms use the Met so they will be expecting an above average temperature for the uk

[keithlucky]

7 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Energy firms use the Met so they will be expecting an above average temperature for the uk

Extract from Newspapers

[Frostbite1980]

5 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Extract from Newspapers

Interesting read but energy firms will still take their guidance from the Met rather than the DTN.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

luckily wishbone northerly, was a risk of wet weather here as winds for a time looked NE'ly which means wet

Pembrokshire dangler and a wet east coast

[snowblizzard]

1 hour ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Interesting read but energy firms will still take their guidance from the Met rather than the DTN.

Surely, nobody really knows what will actually happen post +120 hours despite all the known global drivers but it's a percentage game when it comes to making predictions.

The most likely outcome, given accepted global warming, will be an above average winter and that is reflected in the Met Office outlook.

But, it's highly unlikely that we will see a sustained Southerly or South Westerly airflow all through the winter, there are bound to be some brief colder interludes during the 3 month period.

However, I personally think the chances of the UK ever experiencing a winter like 1947 or 1962/63 have now become virtually zero.

It looks like UK snow lovers will have to seek altitude to satisfy their cravings!    

Edited November 21, 2021 by snowblizzard

[Nick L]

17 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I don't know about anyone else? but I don't care what next week brings, as long as this pattern changes..

It has been absolutely dreadful! Very little sunshine, overcast,  still, damp, much like being under eeyore's armpit.

On the back of one of the worst springs I can remember and a crap summer, this Autumn has been a borefest too. 

So glad we're into a crisper, sunnier regime today. Was never looking likely to snow in the south so I'm not bothered about that, I'm just going to enjoy it turning colder and seeing more sunshine.

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Energy firms use the Met so they will be expecting an above average temperature for the uk

No they don't (at least, not exclusively). I work for a private weather company and we have many contracts with energy companies, including some of the big names.

Edited November 21, 2021 by Nick L

[fergieweather]

3 hours ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Interesting read but energy firms will still take their guidance from the Met rather than the DTN.

Not true - much as they do with Highways, DTN has various customers in the energy sector, including National Grid, and have forecast teams dedicated specifically to that industry.  Latest DTN/WCS assessment for European-wide winter (published last week), with statistical analogues that also factor-in the currently strong stratospheric polar vortex, lean to temperatures being rather variable across Europe during the first half of the winter season, followed by growing potential for periods of high latitude blocking during 2nd half (sustained blocking considered rather unlikely until after mid-Jan); with Feb seeing strongest signal.  Cheers. 

[Don]

5 hours ago, keithlucky said:

WEATHER Wars.With the Met office forecasting a mild winter,BBC colder than average winter with plenty of snow around due to a week polar votex the 2 big major weather organisation need to sort this out due to the energy firms requiring some guidance .

With the La Nina showing strong signs of becoming more eastern based, this could favour a colder winter this year.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am happy that the all too familiar weather pattern as of late has finally come to an end and temps are back to being seasonal. The sun has been out today too. 

Looks like a few chilly mornings with some ground frost are on the horizon for the next few days as well. Lovely.

Edited November 21, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Frostbite1980]

3 hours ago, fergieweather said:

Not true - much as they do with Highways, DTN has various customers in the energy sector, including National Grid, and have forecast teams dedicated specifically to that industry.  Latest DTN/WCS assessment for European-wide winter (published last week), with statistical analogues that also factor-in the currently strong stratospheric polar vortex, lean to temperatures being rather variable across Europe during the first half of the winter season, followed by growing potential for periods of high latitude blocking during 2nd half (sustained blocking considered rather unlikely until after mid-Jan); with Feb seeing strongest signal.  Cheers. 

So thus is very conflicting then considering the Met are going for an above average winter with any cold reserved for November/December. Thank you for putting me straight though

[fergieweather]

16 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

So thus is very conflicting then considering the Met are going for an above average winter with any cold reserved for November/December. Thank you for putting me straight though

Yes, albeit I don't see this as some competition: it merely manifests an interesting dichotomy (but with some common threads) between the differing scientific approach of the two organisations. Also bear in mind that UKMO Seasonal Team will issue their 3-month update shortly for contingency planners; similarly DTN issue customers their updated UK prognosis for the D-J-F period imminently (this week). Those will of course assimilate factors that may have differed in outlooks prepared a month ago (eg ref scope of La Nina; SPV forecasts etc). How much overall faith is placed in latest suite of seasonal models from the main forecast centres is another matter, too. Cheers.

[RJBingham]

10 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Yes, albeit I don't see this as some competition: it merely manifests an interesting dichotomy (but with some common threads) between the differing scientific approach of the two organisations. Also bear in mind that UKMO Seasonal Team will issue their 3-month update shortly for contingency planners; similarly DTN issue customers their updated UK prognosis for the D-J-F period imminently (this week). Those will of course assimilate factors that may have differed in outlooks prepared a month ago (eg ref scope of La Nina; SPV forecasts etc). How much overall faith is placed in latest suite of seasonal models from the main forecast centres is another matter, too. Cheers.

Nice to see you posting again.

and remember folks, what's posted on netweather, stays on netweather  

[Guest]

Almost comical, 200-300pages of MAD ramping and many places at sea could even struggle to get a frost this week. Those guys need to get out more. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Almost comical, 200-300pages of MAD ramping and many places at sea could even struggle to get a frost this week. Those guys need to get out more. 

To me living here anyway, looks like just average temps and showers, so not excited, but members know their locations weather so may be snowfest for some!

this location needs -10 uppers off convective showers for proper snow, but not same everywhere

[knocker]

I notice that blaming the models for not living up to expectations is back in vogue, instead of themselves for misusing them in what has been quite a volatile period post t120

[NEVES SCREAMER]

Just walked down the road from the pub. It's freezing.  My feet are like blocks of ice. Awful. 

[Andy Bown]

14 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Just walked down the road from the pub. It's freezing.  My feet are like blocks of ice. Awful. 

Conversely the sky is crystal clear, starry and with a beautiful bright moon. It’s been sunny most of the day and will be likewise tomorrow.

[ChannelThunder]

On 21/11/2021 at 07:02, RJBingham said:

You won't get any Vitamin D from the sun this time of year, not enough UVB for your skin to make it. 

This has been the subject of a few debates between myself and my partner. The NHS website says that you won't generate any Vitamin D from the sun during the winter months, but she says that you do, although greatly reduced of course. She's a PhD Biologist who has specialised in Vit. D, so I automatically lose the argument 

[markyo]

Stunning Autumn morning, 3c clear skies, this is more like it! Fantastic start to the week

[RJBingham]

32 minutes ago, Lance M said:

This has been the subject of a few debates between myself and my partner. The NHS website says that you won't generate any Vitamin D from the sun during the winter months, but she says that you do, although greatly reduced of course. She's a PhD Biologist who has specialised in Vit. D, so I automatically lose the argument 

I think in that case, even if you win, you still lose 

[Nick L]

What a lovely morning. I love scraping the car on mornings like this.