Autumn 2021 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Man With Beard]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Detail tbc re scope of lowland snow potential in parts of south at least, but in broadest terms the cautionary point (& this is an annual one made by many of us on eg Twitter) is how eg ECMWF accumulates *all* solid ppn, ie sleet too; plus accumulation fields won't adequately represent depth temps (thus actual tendency of snow to genuinely accumulate on ground or not). What's seen falling from sky, as opposed to actually lying on ground (other than fleetingly), won't necessarily be adequately represented yet in model fields for lower elevations at least. 

Thanks Ian, great to see you back on here

[Guest]

9 hours ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

Saturday looks utterly foul. Gales. Rain. Grey. 4c. Think i'll just stay in with the blinds shut.

Yep ridiculous conditions, absolutely no use to anyone with a life. Golf has already been cancelled  

[TheOgre]

We still haven’t had much frost here. Colder days yes but only light frosts. This weekend looks really chilly though just 3C on Sunday! I hope we do get a dusting of snow! Looks boring again next week though.

[MattStoke]

It's tiresome how every post of snow fall/accumulation charts in the model thread is followed by several comments of people moaning and pointing out that getting hung up on such detail is pointless.

Maybe, just maybe people are posting such MODEL charts purely out of interest in the MODEL thread. It doesn't mean they're being taken as gospel....

Edited November 24, 2021 by MattStoke

[mountain shadow]

After the very short cold snap this weekend I'm struggling to see any proper cold anywhere over the next two to three weeks at least, probably longer.

Not convinced that the MJO is going to play ball either.

 

[NEVES SCREAMER]

I suppose this is a bit off topic. As we are going autumn to winter. In Australia they are going spring to summer. Interesting i was reading they are in a 'la nina' weather pattern in Brisbane where the 1st ashes test begins 8th December. They are expecting more rain days than usual and lots of it. Apparently it's already 'soggy' and the England warm up game has lost the whole of day 2 to rain. I'm not technical in these things so have no idea what la nina is ! But sounds bad.

[mulzy]

The ext EPS mean toying with renewed mid Atlantic heights (the northerly extent of which could have huge ramifications).  Good chance that this will subsequently topple to form a UK high or dare I say it a Scandi high! 

Edited November 24, 2021 by mulzy

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 hours ago, MattStoke said:

It's tiresome how every post of snow fall/accumulation charts in the model thread is followed by several comments of people moaning and pointing out that getting hung up on such detail is pointless.

Maybe, just maybe people are posting such MODEL charts purely out of interest in the MODEL thread. It doesn't mean they're being taken as gospel....

Might not be by those posting it. But it does by meeee!! IF it shows snow over me I expect snow over me! PFT!!

[Weatherman_93]

I can't keep up with it all! People posting charts every few minutes, some saying we are in for a prolonged cold spell, others saying it looks like December will be mainly mild for the best part 

[Rayth]

Well , as winter approaches , we are now at the 'absolutely bizzare' posting on the model thread stage 

[Wivenswold]

Ha, yes. Though this is the thread for bizarre comments rather than the mostly balanced model discussion on the other Autumn model thread. 

My moan? I love snow and cold but since getting Fibromyalgia any dip in temperatures brings pain for me. Snow and/or dry cold aren't as big a problem as cold rain. So I'm disappointed with anything between proper cold and nice and mild. Yes, I live in the wrong country, a few years earlier I could have moved to live around the Med but then Brexit happened. (Last bit a rant, but not a weather one, I'm still livid about it, sorry).

Edited November 25, 2021 by Wivenswold

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Looks like there's going to be a last minute autumn storm on the cards for this coming Saturday. Personally, I am enjoying this change in weather pattern as of late and am looking forward to the weekend.

 

Edited November 25, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Turnedoutniceagain]

 

Saturday's METO wind warning now upgraded to Amber

[Bald Eagle]

1 minute ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

 

Saturday's METO wind warning now upgraded to Amber

Yep..my work cancelled for Saturday due to the wind. Looks exceptionally nasty in the North Sea Friday pm/ Saturday am

[Wimbledon88]

2 hours ago, Bald Eagle said:

Yep..my work cancelled for Saturday due to the wind. Looks exceptionally nasty in the North Sea Friday pm/ Saturday am

I thought looking at the map the SE being left out of the warning area was a bit random. Until I seen the extreme NW tip of Scotland also left out. Now that's random!!  

[Yarmy]

Saturday’s storm looking really severe for the North. When was the last time we had gale force winds direct from a northerly?

[Dennis]

Goodnight

[richie3846]

3 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Saturday’s storm looking really severe for the North. When was the last time we had gale force winds direct from a northerly?

I was wondering the same. Not looking forward to how it feels, it's going to be bitter.

[Nick L]

It seems that this Autumn has saved up all its interesting weather for a single 24 hour period. By far some of the most difficult forecasts I've ever had to deal with tonight. Be careful what you wish for I guess! I need a beer.

Take care for those along North Sea coasts in NE England/SE Scotland, could see gusts in excess of 90mph.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Nick L

[stainesbloke]

First flakes of light snow falling here in Prague, pretty Chilly week to come here, but I doubt there’ll be accumulating snow as daytime temperatures will rise above freezing. Will be in London this weekend and my weather app showing snow for tomorrow Still not cold enough, surely?

[throwoff]

On 23/11/2021 at 20:56, Alderc said:

Golf has already been cancelled  

So theres some good come out of it

[AderynCoch]

Hello winter:

[SLEETY]

Is this classed as a polar low? 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Feels like an eternity since we last had a proper low.

I am enjoying experiencing this change in weather. Certainly going to be fun tomorrow for those of us who have been longing for an autumn storm. And we could certainly do with blowing away a few cobwebs.

I am not after a 2010 style winter with heaps of snow though. A few snow days would of course be nice, but blue sky crisp frosty mornings are what I am hoping for the most, along with the odd storm.

Edited November 26, 2021 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Beanz]

On 24/11/2021 at 12:05, MattStoke said:

It's tiresome how every post of snow fall/accumulation charts in the model thread is followed by several comments of people moaning and pointing out that getting hung up on such detail is pointless.

Maybe, just maybe people are posting such MODEL charts purely out of interest in the MODEL thread. It doesn't mean they're being taken as gospel....

The trouble is people posting such charts are often getting over excited about snow, not about the models.  They often are taken as gospel by many that surf the MOD thread to the point where when the models flip, there very often are spurious claims of how the models got it wrong...BEFORE the event has even happened!